One Advantage for Every Underdog in Divisional Round of 2023 MLB Playoffs
At least according to how they're seeded, the Minnesota Twins, Texas Rangers, Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies will be underdogs in the next round of the Major League Baseball playoffs.
But they can't totally be at a disadvantage, right?
Right. Whether it pertains to depth in certain areas, a collective ability to excel at something or a mismatch in a specific area of the game, each possesses at least one clear edge on their opponent.
This is pretty vague, so here's a hint about the sort of things about to be discussed: Whereas the Diamondbacks run very well, the Los Angeles Dodgers aren't much for throwing.
Let's discuss these matters in more detail, beginning with the two Division Series matchups in the American League and ending with the two in the National League.
What the Minnesota Twins Have on the Houston Astros
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What the Twins Have: Loads of Pitching
Even if it was Royce Lewis' bat that made the most noise, it was really the Twins' pitching that made the bigger impact in a sweep of the Toronto Blue Jays in the Wild Card Series.
When the series ended, Twins hurlers had allowed just one run and struck out 19 over 18 innings. Starters Pablo López and Sonny Gray pitched 10.2 innings of one-run ball and Jhoan Duran led a bullpen effort that resulted in a nice, shiny goose egg over 7.1 innings.
Not that anyone should have been surprised, of course. The Twins chucked the ball well all year, notably finishing with a league-best 1,560 strikeouts.
The Twins didn't even empty the tank against Toronto. Not seen in the series were starters Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober, who were mostly solid in pitching to a 4.00 ERA in 55 combined starts during the regular season.
What the Astros Don't Have: Enough Pitching
Houston's pitching isn't bad, necessarily, but it isn't what it was in 2022. Case in point, it went from ranking second in rWAR last year to a tie for 16th this year.
Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez are aces by reputation, but reality for both is a bit more complicated. The former is a 40-year-old who was unpredictable pretty much all year. The latter had a 4.66 ERA in his last 14 starts of the season.
Things are pretty bleak after them, as Houston's other three primary starters had a combined 5.20 ERA in the second half. Even closer Ryan Pressly was less than Duran-like down the stretch, coughing up a 5.40 ERA on 29 hits over his last 25 innings.
What the Texas Rangers Have on the Baltimore Orioles
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What the Rangers Have: Plenty of Home Run Power
If the Wild Card Series round made anything clear, it's that hitting the ball over the fence is still a recommended part of winning games in October.
Home runs have tended to correlate to success in the modern era of baseball's playoffs and, goodness, did that hold true in the first round. The four winners combined to hit 10 home runs. The four losers? Just one.
Which brings us to the Rangers, and specifically to the 233 home runs they hit in the regular season. Only the Twins had as many among American League teams, and even they didn't have anyone top 25 homers. Adolis García, Corey Seager and Marcus Semien did for Texas.
Rookie outfielder Evan Carter seems more than ready to take Texas' slugging prowess to the next level. He went deep five times in just 23 games down the stretch of the regular season and promptly collected his first playoff homer on Wednesday.
What the Orioles Don't Have: Enough Home Run Power
The Orioles averaged a sturdy 5.0 runs per game during the regular season, but that was with "only" 183 home runs. That's not too small of a number, but the 50-homer gap between them and the Rangers can't simply be ignored. That's the size of one 2000 Sammy Sosa.
Baltimore's approach to scoring is more so of the holistic variety. What they tend to do better than the opposition includes such things as running the bases, making productive outs and hitting with runners in scoring position.
But while that was plenty good enough in the regular season, the evidence suggests it won't be good enough in the Division Series if the Rangers force a slugfest.
What the Arizona Diamondbacks Have on the Los Angeles Dodgers
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What the Diamondbacks Have: Dominance on the Bases
See Corbin Carroll. Now see Corbin Carroll run:
Carroll is indeed a special case, as he attempted 59 stolen bases this season and failed in only five of those. He is nonetheless emblematic of the Diamondbacks' single biggest offensive strength, which is speed.
The 166 bases they stole in the regular season are the most of any team in this year's playoffs. They likewise lapped the field in Baserunning Runs, which factors in bases taken on other plays such as wild pitches.
This aspect of the Diamondbacks offense didn't really come through against the Milwaukee Brewers in the Wild Card Series, at least not relative to the four home runs they hit. But rest assured, it will be a factor in the Division Series.
What the Dodgers Don't Have: Really Any Kind of Running Game
Stealing bases wasn't really the Dodgers' forte in the regular season, as they finished below the league average with a total of 105. But more so than this, a bigger concern is how much the Dodgers will be able to contain Arizona's ground attack.
Not to dunk on Will Smith or anything, but he allowed 72 of the 142 stolen bases that the Dodgers permitted during the regular season. That's the high mark among the 12 teams that qualified for the postseason.
Lest they be let off the hook, Dodgers pitchers picked off only six runners all year to rank toward the bottom of the league. And Sonny Gray wept.
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What the Philadelphia Phillies Have on Atlanta
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What the Phillies Have: A Functional Starting Rotation
Phillies starting pitchers posted a 4.30 ERA in the regular season, which ranked 15th out of 30 teams. They were the median. The median was them.
But if ever there was a time to nod your head at how they ranked fourth in rWAR and first in fWAR, it's right now in the wake of the devastation that Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola inflicted on the Miami Marlins.
The two right-handers handled 13.2 in the Wild Card Series and permitted just one run on eight hits and a walk. This was against the lowest-scoring team in the National League, but also amid the decidedly hitter-friendly environs of Citizens Bank Park.
After Wheeler and Nola, the Phillies still have Taijuan Walker, Christopher Sánchez and Ranger Suárez to throw at Atlanta and any other team they might encounter. The three of them combined to make 40 starts and post a 3.87 ERA this season.
What Atlanta Doesn't Have: A Functional Starting Rotation
Spencer Strider is a scholar, a gentleman and certainly a great pitcher. But after him, Atlanta's starting pitching gets awfully iffy awfully fast.
They believe Max Fried will be good to go for Game 2 of the Division Series after sitting out the end of the regular season with a blister, but nobody ever accused blisters of being cooperative. Charlie Morton, meanwhile, is out with a sprained index finger.
The next man up is Bryce Elder, which is only comforting if you're awakening from a nap that began when he had a 2.45 ERA on July 3. His season devolved after that, as he ultimately got punished for a 5.75 ERA over his final 14 starts.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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