Royce Lewis Is Already a Twins Legend, Rays Are a Mess and More MLB Wild Card Takes
It's day No. 1 of Major League Baseball's 2023 postseason, and we've got all sorts of thoughts about what transpired in the openers of the four best-of-three wild card series.
The biggest takeaway thus far is that the future of baseball is bright. Minnesota's rookie phenom Royce Lewis stole the day, but Texas' Evan Carter and Arizona's Corbin Carroll and Gabriel Moreno had big-time postseason debuts of their own. We'll have to wait until the ALDS to see what Baltimore's Gunnar Henderson has up his sleeve for October, but what a start for the young guys.
Not a great start for the East divisions, though. Either Miami or Philadelphia has to win that series, but with both Tampa Bay and Toronto losing to start the day, it's looking like only one of the four wild card teams between the AL East and NL East will make it through to the next round.
That could change with wins on Wednesday and Thursday, of course, but every Game 1 winner of last year's wild card round went on to win its series, three of them doing so in a sweep.
Here are takeaways from a jam-packed day of wild card action to kick off the playoffs.
Pencil in Evan Carter for 2024 AL Rookie of the Year
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This one was true long before Tuesday afternoon.
Regardless of what prospect ranking service you prefer, Evan Carter was a top-50 minor leaguer heading into the season. He hit .284 with a .411 on-base percentage at Double-A Frisco and thrived in his brief stay at Triple-A Round Rock before making his MLB debut 10 days after celebrating his 21st birthday.
He was then fantastic in the big leagues in September for the Rangers, racking up five home runs and three stolen bases with a 1.059 OPS.
But unless you're a Rangers fan or some sort of dynasty league junkie, maybe Carter hadn't made it onto your radar yet.
That can no longer be the case after his performance in Texas' 4-0 Game 1 win in Tampa Bay.
An extremely patient hitter who loves to bat with a full count—he got there in 20 of 75 regular-season plate appearances, per Tim Kurkjian during the broadcast—Carter drew a pair of full-count walks against Tyler Glasnow in addition to a pair of doubles.
Not only did Carter get on base in all four trips to the plate, but he stole a bag after the first walk and had an impressive diving catch on an Isaac Paredes liner in the first inning.
Just a total package performance from a young man rapidly blossoming into the future of baseball. He should be the heavy favorite for AL Rookie of the Year—unless it starts to look like the Orioles will have Jackson Holliday on their Opening Day roster.
And oh by the way, we're talking about the No. 9 hitter for a relentless Rangers offense.
They weren't anywhere near as potent in August and September as they were through the first four months of the season, and they didn't hit for power in Game 1. But between the nine hits, the six walks and the few freebies they were given by the Rays' defense, they constantly had traffic on the bases and reminded the world why they led the AL in runs scored.
The Rays Lineup Just Had One of the Worst Postseason Games Ever
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It's bad enough to get shut out in the postseason, but that happens all the time. Heck, the Rays were shut out by Cleveland in a 15-inning game last October, and the Phillies got no-hit in the World Series.
But getting shut out and committing four errors?
Goodness gracious.
It looked like the Rays' players wanted to be at Tropicana Field as badly as their fans did—the official attendance figure of 19,704 was the worst in more than a century of postseason baseball (excluding 2020) per The Athletic's Tyler Kepner.
Heading into the final weekend of the regular season, we were informed by the Associated Press that errors were at an all-time low for a third consecutive season. And Tampa Bay was one of the best with just 74 errors, good for ninth-lowest in the majors.
But they were all over the place in this one.
In addition to the four official errors, Glasnow uncorked a run-scoring wild pitch, first baseman Yandy Díaz somewhat misplayed two balls that were ruled hits, and center fielder Jose Siri could've gotten charged with two errors on the same play, awkwardly trying to field a ball on the hop before launching it into the dugout.
Only one of the four runs that Texas scored was actually unearned, but it was repeatedly deflating all the same and caused Glasnow's pitch count to rise rapidly.
Can they rebound from that disaster to win back-to-back games?
Or are they about to be swept out of the wild card round for a second straight season?
Jordan Montgomery Made Himself Quite a Few Bucks
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Jordan Montgomery has quietly been really solid over the past three years, posting a 3.48 ERA dating back to the start of 2021. Per FanGraphs, his 10.2 WAR during that time was good for 17th best among pitchers.
But for some bizarre reason, nobody much cared.
When he got shipped to St. Louis for Harrison Bader at last year's trade deadline, MLB.com's Mike Petriello ranked it as the 14th-most noteworthy deadline deal.
Petriello was a little more enthused by Montgomery on the move this year, but still only had Montgomery to the Rangers as the sixth-biggest deal—the second-biggest move for each of Texas and St. Louis—in what was a painfully boring deadline outside of the Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander trades.
It almost felt like the impending free agent was destined to be an underpaid bargain for some lucky team this offseason, simply by virtue of the lack of respect he had been receiving for years.
But after going seven shutout innings—helping himself out with a ridiculous diving grab of a Siri squeeze bunt attempt in the second inning—how could the 30-year-old lefty not be one of the most coveted arms on the market this winter?
Montgomery has now allowed just one run in 13.2 innings of postseason work in his career.
And if the Rangers advance to the ALDS and he tosses another gem against the Orioles, tack another few million dollars onto his upcoming contract.
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Nobody Lives for the Moment Quite Like Royce Lewis
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Minnesota's Royce Lewis made history during the regular season with four grand slams in the span of 19 days.
The No. 1 overall pick in the 2017 draft also hit a salami last season in just the seventh game of his career.
In 13 career trips to the plate with the bases loaded, he has gone 7-for-12 with a walk, five home runs and 24 RBI.
And if there were somehow any lingering questions about how clutch the 24-year-old infielder could be, Lewis went out there and mashed a two-run home run in the first plate appearance of his postseason career, followed by a darn-near-400-foot opposite field solo shot in his second trip to the plate.
Could we be looking at this year's version of 2020 Randy Arozarena?
If you'll recall, Arozarena had a 1.022 OPS in limited action during the regular season, and then lost his mind in the postseason, hitting 10 home runs in 20 games with a 1.273 OPS—as the Rays snapped a more-than-decade-long-drought of losing in the ALDS in four straight trips to the playoffs.
The Twins are in a similar boat as the Rays were three years ago, finally snapping their infamous 18-game postseason losing streak, but still looking to actually win a series for the first time since 2002.
If they're going to pull it off and even go on a deep run over these next few weeks, the rookie with a flair for the dramatic will surely play a major role.
Toronto's Offense Continues to Underwhelm in 2023
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On paper, the Toronto Blue Jays should have had one of the most potent offenses this season.
Bo Bichette led the AL in hits in each of the past two seasons. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was one of the best sluggers (not named Aaron Judge) between those two campaigns. Matt Chapman was entering a contract year fresh off back-to-back 27 HR seasons. Alejandro Kirk was a reigning Silver Slugger. They traded for Daulton Varsho, who was Arizona's best offensive weapon in 2022. Surely George Springer had something left in the tank, too.
But it just never came together, as they inexplicably scored fewer rans than any other AL team that made the playoffs.
Bichette hit well, but missed a big chunk of the second half. He was one of eight Blue Jays to hit at least 10 home runs, but the team leader was Guerrero at 26 as none of the regulars managed to slug better than .490.
That trend continued in a big way in Game 1 in Minnesota, with the Blue Jays managing just one run and one extra-base hit in a 3-1 loss to the Twins.
That lone scoring play came on Pablo López's final pitch of the night on an opposite field flare by Kevin Kiermaier that third baseman Jorge Polanco narrowly missed snagging.
The big letdown came in the eighth inning when Guerrero's leadoff double against Griffin Jax—a reliever with seven blown saves and 10 losses during the regular season—went completely to waste with two strikeouts and a groundout.
Got to score at least one run in that situation, but Toronto was unable to capitalize. Again.
Rookies Ruled the Day, But the Old Dudes Can Still Play
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Between the eight teams playing in the wild card round, there's a four-man old guard of position players over the age of 35: Miami's Yuli Gurriel (39), Arizona's Evan Longoria (37; turns 38 on Saturday) and Milwaukee's Josh Donaldson (37) and Carlos Santana (37).
The oldest of those elder statesmen did blow a golden opportunity. Pinch hitting with two outs and two on in the seventh inning of a two-run game, Gurriel went down swinging on an absolutely filthy pitch by Philadelphia's José Alvarado.
But the 37-year-olds playing in Milwaukee had one heck of a night.
At the dish, Longoria had just a two-out, opposite field single that amounted to nothing, but he was sensational in the field.
With the bases loaded and one out, Longoria ended the fifth inning by snaring a liner off the bat of Tyrone Taylor and doubling off Willy Adames at second. The next inning, he made a heads up play to get Christian Yelich at second base after juggling a slow roller. And after making an incredible diving stop and just barely missing throwing out Adames—keeping a would-be double to an infield single—he started the inning-ending double play on the next pitch.
His glovework saved the game for the Diamondbacks on many occasions. Ironic, considering he's the all-time leader in WAR for the Rays, who could have really used a glove today.
On the Brewers side of things, Donaldson and Santana went a combined 3-for-8 with one run and an RBI. They were clutch in staking Milwaukee to an early 3-0 lead, though it vanished in a hurry when the ball started flying out of the park for Arizona.
Corbin Burnes Takes the L...in Perhaps His Final Start with Milwaukee?
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Early on in Milwaukee, it looked like the Brewers were going to cruise to victory.
They scored their first run before making an out. They pushed the lead to 3-0 the following inning when No. 9 hitter Tyrone Taylor went yard. And at the time, it looked like no one was going to get solid contact against their ace Corbin Burnes. The only ball to even leave the infield in the first two innings was a little liner by Christian Walker for a single.
But it all unraveled in a hurry.
Following a Geraldo Perdomo single, Corbin Carroll absolutely destroyed a ball for a two-run homer. And one pitch later, Ketel Marte lined one over the right-field wall to tie the game.
After the Brewers left the bases loaded in the bottom of the third, Burnes went back out there and immediately gave up another 400+ foot bomb to a rookie, this time Gabriel Moreno.
The D-Backs would tack on two insurance runs in the ninth inning, but that Moreno home run proved to be the difference. Burnes went four innings, allowed four earned runs and took the loss.
Now we're left to wonder if he'll ever pitch for the Brewers again.
Sure, he'd pitch against Los Angeles in the NLDS if they can come back and win these next two games. But with Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly lined up to face presumably Freddy Peralta and Wade Miley with Brandon Woodruff (shoulder) unavailable, that doesn't seem likely to happen.
Burnes has one year of arbitration eligibility remaining before reaching free agency, but given how caustic last offseason's arbitration hearing was, they might decide to trade him away before they lose him for nothing a year from now.
Philadelphia Phillies: Been There. Done That. Ready to Do It Again.
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At no point during Philadelphia's 4-1 victory over Miami did the outcome seem to be in any bit of doubt.
They did squander a huge opportunity in the first inning, failing to score despite having runners on second and third with no outs.
But Zack Wheeler was dealing against a lackluster Miami offense that he has owned throughout his career.
Through six innings, only two runners reached base against Wheeler, neither of whom made it so far as second base. When they finally did manage to scratch across a run against him, it took a near miracle. Jake Burger reached on a two-out infield single where Wheeler forgot to cover first, followed by Bryan De La Cruz reaching on an infield single where he beat Alec Bohm's throw by less than half of a step.
Meanwhile, the Phillies were already on their third rotation through the batting order by the fourth inning with everyone except for Bryce Harper tallying a hit off Jesús Luzardo. (Harper would eventually get his hit and a run in the eighth inning.)
The only moment of even a little desperation came after those infield singles in the seventh when the Phillies brought in their best reliever, José Alvarado, to make Gurriel look foolish on a strikeout to end that lone threat of the game.
And so they're off again, ready to try to put together another wild-card-to-World-Series run just like last year.
Getting by 104-win Atlanta in the NLDS won't be easy, but the Phillies stunned the Braves one year ago.
Assuming they beat the Marlins Wednesday or Thursday to advance, well, you can just about take it to the bank that I'll chicken out and not actually pick the Phillies to upset Atlanta in our NLDS previews.
But if it comes down to pitching in the NLDS—and subsequently in the NLCS against Los Angeles—you sure do have to like Philadelphia's chances, right?
Those two regular-season juggernauts have pitching staffs being held together by a combination of threads and medical tape while Philly's Wheeler and Aaron Nola tandem could be gearing up to do some serious damage, anchored by a lineup devoid of weak spots.
Holy Bullpens, Batman
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There were some outstanding performances by starting pitchers today. We specifically highlighted Jordan Montgomery's work already, but we also had Wheeler slinging filth and Pablo López turning in a very strong 5.2 innings of work.
But the bullpens were especially ridiculous.
All told, 33 relievers combined for 31.0 innings of work with a 0.87 ERA.
For a while there, it looked like we might make it through the entire day without a single run allowed by a reliever.
Of all the relievers to blow it, it was somehow Milwaukee's Devin Williams. He has been arguably the best reliever in all of baseball since the beginning of 2020. But in the first postseason appearance of his career, he just could not locate tonight, walking three Arizona batters before Christian Walker smashed one off the wall in center field for a two-run double.
The only other run allowed by a reliever came near the end of Miami-Philadelphia, on a run allowed by the Marlins' Steven Okert.
Aside from that, all zeroes.
And without question, the most impressive "bullpen shutout" was the one that Arizona cobbled together.
After Brandon Pfaadt lasted just eight outs, Torey Lovullo turned to Joe Mantiply, Miguel Castro, Ryne Nelson, Ryan Thompson, Kevin Ginkel and Paul Sewald to retire the final 19 Brewers.
It wasn't 19 in order, just to be clear. They still had to work out of several jams, often with the aforementioned help of Evan Longoria. But after having one of the worst bullpens in the majors during the regular season, 6.1 scoreless innings of relief by Arizona was maybe the most unpredictable thing we saw all day.
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