Next NFL Superstar QBs? Ranking Best Young Signal Callers Who Could Join Elite Tier
Less than two years ago, few in the pro football sphere knew who Brock Purdy was, and Tua Tagovailoa was wrapping up a mediocre sophomore season with the Miami Dolphins.
Today, each lead their respective conferences in passer rating. Purdy is 9-0 as a regular-season starter for the San Francisco 49ers, and Tagovailoa is a clear-cut high-end MVP candidate.
Those two undoubtedly represent the next wave of elite NFL quarterbacks, along with—to varying degrees and depending on the judge—already-sensational rookie Houston Texans signal-caller C.J. Stroud, third-year Jacksonville Jaguars No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence, tantalizing first-year Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson, neo-mobile Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields, and Aaron Rodgers' successor with the Green Bay Packers, Jordan Love.
For the purposes of ranking those on the doorstop of elite status, we're leaving out already-arguably-elite yet young quarterbacks Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson, as well as young passers with far too much still to prove, such as rookie top 2023 pick Bryce Young, 2022 first-rounder Kenny Pickett, and NFC sophomores Sam Howell and Desmond Ridder.
Let's jump in.
7. Jordan Love
1 of 7
Signs of elite
Love has thrown eight touchdown passes to just three interceptions thus far in his first full season as Green Bay's starter. The 2021 first-round pick has also rushed for a pair of touchdowns, and he's definitely got bona fide play-making ability.
Signs of something else
He's completed just 56.1 percent of his passes, which is unacceptable by modern standards and ranks last among qualified passers. His bad throw rate also ranks near the top of the league, and only the less-than-100-percent Joe Burrow has a lower qualified rating on deep passing attempts. Trends like that cost him the benefit of the doubt, mainly because he didn't do much of anything in 2021 or 2022 to indicate he's primed to become a franchise quarterback in this league. It's still early, but the outlook ain't great.
6. Anthony Richardson
2 of 7
Signs of elite
His sheer physical ability gives him a solid shot, but it's far too early to predict where the dice will land on this crapshoot. On the bright side, Richardson has committed just two turnovers in three games with limited support in Indianapolis, and he's already found the end zone with his legs on four occasions.
Signs of something else
The rookie No. 4 overall pick is raw, and it has shown often. He ranks ahead of only Love with a completion rate of 56.9, and only three qualified passers have worse bad throw rates. He's also completed just three deep passes on 12 attempts, and he's a mere 4-for-12 in the fourth quarter of one-score games. It's also worth noting injuries have already been a factor quickly for the oft-exposed Florida product.
5. Justin Fields
3 of 7
Signs of elite
Unlike Love and Richardson, Fields has provided significant pre-2023 evidence that there's a shot at elite status. Dude was the league's seventh-leading rusher last year, and his passing numbers did improve slightly in his sophomore season with the Bears. And after a rough start to this season, he went wild with 335 passing yards, four passing touchdowns and a 132.7 rating in one of the best games of his career last Sunday against the Denver Broncos, and then he followed that up with four more TDs and a 125.3 rating Thursday night in Washington.
Signs of something else
The Broncos defense isn't much of a test right now, Fields was lousy in his three previous games and there are still massive questions about his arm. What's more, he's completed just five of 11 passes with two interceptions in the fourth quarter of one-score games. The 1-4 Bears might eventually conclude that the 2021 No. 11 overall pick just isn't consistent enough through the air, even if his current hot streak is encouraging.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
4. Brock Purdy
4 of 7
Signs of elite
The 49ers have won each of Purdy's first nine regular-season starts, and if he were qualified, the 2022 seventh-round pick would be the highest-rated passer in NFL history. This season, he's got a near-perfect passer rating on deep balls, and he's been clutch whenever needed.
Signs of something else
There aren't many, but there are reasons for caution. There's a reason he was the last pick of the entire '22 draft, and the sample size remains extremely small (just 282 career passes). He surprised a lot of defenses that were unfamiliar with him last season, and he continues to benefit from having one of the best supporting casts in the NFL. There may be something magical here, but we still need to see a lot more. He's gotten away with a bunch of turnover-worthy plays, so it's still possible the clock will eventually strike midnight on Mr. Irrelevant.
3. Trevor Lawrence
5 of 7
Signs of elite
Lawrence is off to a bit of an slow start in 2023, but he's earned plenty of benefit of the doubt as a still-23-year-old No. 1 overall pick coming off a breakout sophomore season in which he put up 25 touchdown passes to just eight interceptions. He remains on the right track under Doug Pederson in Jacksonville, and it's still worth noting that only Purdy has a better passer rating on deep attempts this year. We haven't really seen Lawrence in a big spot yet, so we'll reserve judgement to an extent.
Signs of something else
An underwhelming rookie season (albeit under a terrible coach) and a slow start to 2023 certainly count against Lawrence. Altogether, 41 touchdowns to 27 interceptions and an 84.0 passer rating is not what you'd expect at this stage from a guy touted as a potential generational talent coming into the league.
2. C.J. Stroud
6 of 7
Signs of elite
The rookie No. 2 overall pick is the sixth player in league history to average 300 passing yards and have zero interceptions through the first four games of a season. He's making game-breaking throws (including a 126.1 rating on third down), avoiding killer mistakes and improving by the week when it comes to yards per attempt and sacks allowed.
Signs of something else
Well, there's no doubt the sample is too small to anoint Stroud at this point, and he does have a few fumbles already. For what it's worth, he also sports the second-highest bad throw rate in the league. But you really have to nitpick to find reasons not to believe in the 22-year-old right now.
1. Tua Tagovailoa
7 of 7
Signs of elite
Considering he was the league's highest-rated qualified passer in 2022 and is off to an even more fiery start in 2023 (while critically staying healthy), Tagovailoa has to be on the cusp of graduating from this list and becoming a solidified elite quarterback. The 25-year-old has shined consistently while running the NFL's highest-scoring offense, and only Dak Prescott has a lower bad throw rate.
Signs of something else
It was of course concerning that he had so much trouble with head injuries last year, especially because injuries were a concern prior to that campaign. He even considered retirement as a result, so that's still worthy of our radar. That said, it's hard to find any other reason why Tua isn't becoming a megastar.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
