Bears vs. Commanders: Updated Odds, Money Line, Spread, Props to Watch for TNF
Thursday's upcoming battle between the Chicago Bears and Washington Commanders might not interest everyone, but it should be an entertaining way to kick off Week 5.
The Bears have yet to win a game in 2023, while the Commanders don't quite have the look of a title contender. However, Washington is 2-2 and firmly in the playoff mix, while Chicago's offense—and quarterback Justin Fields—are coming off a showcase Week 4 performance.
The Commanders have a chance to take another positive step after last week's overtime loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. The Bears have a shot at showing that they're still more interested in winning than in the 2024 draft. This might not be enough to draw in casual fans, but there's always an opportunity to make things a little more interesting.
Below, you'll find a look at the latest odds, our predictions, and some player props to consider for Thursday night.
Check the latest lines at DraftKings.
Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders
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Date: Thursday, October 5
When: 8:15 p.m. ET
Live Stream and TV: Prime Video (Fox in Local Markets)
Line: Washington -6
Over/Under: 44.5
Money Line: Washington -256 (bet $265 to win $100), Chicago +215 (bet $100 to win $215)
Preview and Prediction
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Both the Bears and Commanders will be looking to make a statement on Thursday following close losses in Week 4.
Washington will look to prove that, at 2-2, it is a legitimate playoff contender. Sam Howell and the Commanders went toe-to-toe with the Eagles on Sunday, falling just short in overtime. Washington shouldn't be taken lightly, and it will try to prove that by dominating the Bears at home.
Chicago, meanwhile, will look to show that Fields' breaking passing performance in Week 4—35 yards, one touchdown, one interception—was not a fluke. It's reasonable to believe that it was, given how poorly the Denver Broncos have played defensively.
If Fields doesn't show significant progress as a passer between now and the end of the regular season, there will be little stopping Chicago from using one or both of its two first-round picks to obtain a top 2024 QB prospect.
Fields, though, is more focused on winning than individual performances.
"At this point, winning is just the No. 1 thing on my mind, so I'd rather do that than accomplish any individual goal or individual statistic that there is," the Bears' signal-caller said, per ESPN's Courtney Cronin.
The Bears didn't win in Week 4, largely because of a defensive collapse. It's hard to envision Chicago winning this week for the same reasons.
Howell has looked like a far more polished and poised passer after five starts than Fields has in 29 of them. The biggest issue for Washington's quarterback has been pass protection—and Chicago struggles to generate pressure.
Through the first month, Howell has been sacked a whopping 24 times. The Bears, though, have recorded just two quarterback takedowns. Expect Howell, Terry McLaurin and the Washington passing attack to slice through a Bears defense that ranks 31st in both yards per pass attempt and passing touchdowns allowed this season.
Prediction: Commanders 30, Bears 23
Sam Howell over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
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Howell is +100 to throw for at least two touchdown passes, and given the matchup, that feels like a solid bet.
While Howell has thrown fewer than two touchdown passes in three of four games this season, the Commanders should lean on the pass against Chicago, at least early. If Washington gets out to a big lead, it may lean on Brian Robinson Jr. and the ground game, but the Bears have actually been fairly decent against the run.
Chicago has allowed just 3.8 yards per carry.
However, the Bears have been laughably bad against the pass and are virtually incapable of generating sustained pressure. Howell has played like a bona fide NFL starter despite being under constant duress. He might look like a star with a clean pocket.
Add in the fact that Chicago has surrendered 10 touchdown passes on the season—and three TDs in three of four games—and this prop feels well worth the risk.
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Khalil Herbert over 44.5 Rushing Yards
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Bears running back Khalil Herbert is -115 to top 45 rushing yards on Thursday, which may seem like a dicey proposition at first blush.
The third-year running back has averaged just 49 rushing yards per game this season.
However, Chicago found an offensive game plan that worked in Week 4, and it involved a heavy dose of Herbert. The 25-year-old had more rushes than the rest of the team combined and finished with 103 yards on 18 carries.
The caveat, of course, is that Denver has been absolutely awful at slowing the ground game. The Broncos have allowed an average of 5.6 yards per carry this season. Herbert's average last Sunday was 5.7 yards per carry.
But it's not as if Washington has been clamping down on the run. The Commanders have been allowing 4.5 yards per carry in 2023, and they'll likely apply some focus on slowing Fields as a scrambler.
Assuming Herbert again rushes at a rate close to what the defense is allowing, it shouldn't take much more than 10 carries for him to hit the over here. If Chicago doesn't run Herbert more than 10 times in this game, something is very wrong.
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