B/R College Football 2023 Betting Locks with Adam Kramer: Week 6

When October hits and the temperatures fall, the money starts to flow.

At the very least, we have no excuses now. A full month of college football has provided us with ample time to observe a nation of teams. And as we hit the meat of the CFB season, Locks of the Week has plans for a robust stretch.

In Week 5, we were profitable. A 5-4 performance could have been better, although the late games weren't kind to the bankroll. We enter Week 6 at 27-22, which frankly isn't good enough. Better we shall be.

Before we move onto this week's picks, let's explore the good and bad from the week that was.

The Good: Oregon State (-3.5) vs. Utah: This one wasn't much of a sweat, which you love to see. Oregon State's defense was smothering, and the offense did just enough. This was an easy cover to kick things off.

The Bad: Notre Dame at Duke (Over 52): A slew of early red-zone blunders ultimately doomed this bet, although it might not have had a chance regardless. This was a great game, although the bet was not-so-hot.

With that out of the way, we're on to Week 6.

For the latest spreads on these games, go to DraftKings.

UCLA (-3.5) vs. Washington State

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SALT LAKE CITY, UT - SEPTEMBER 23: Dante Moore #3 of the UCLA Bruins looks for a play to be called in during the second half of their game against the Utah Utes at Rice-Eccles Stadium on September 23, 2023 in Salt Lake City, Utah. (Photo by Chris Gardner/Getty Images)

By now, you should notice a trend.

Pac-12 teams at home are a different beast. Oregon State learned this the hard way when it played at Washington State a few weeks back. UCLA got the same lesson when it played at Utah in the same week.

Now, we're flipping the script and following the same path. Wazzu is playing on the road for the first time since Week 1, and that road game came against Colorado State. It's been a minute, and this road environment promises to be a much different test.

Both teams were on a bye last week, so each roster should be relatively fresh. And both teams have quarterbacks capable of taking games over.

Cameron Ward has been sensational for Washington State, although UCLA freshman Dante Moore should hold his own in this spot. In a game that should feature ample offense, the Bruins get the best of a really fun team.

Long live the Pac-12.

For the latest spreads on these games, go to DraftKings.

UAB (+3.5) vs. South Florida

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ATHENS, GA - SEPTEMBER 23: UAB Blazers Head Coach Trent Dilfer looks on prior to the college football game between the UAB Blazers and the Georgia Bulldogs on September 23, 2023, at Sanford Stadium in Athens, GA. (Photo by Jeffrey Vest/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Trent Dilfer spent this past Saturday yelling at his assistant coaches on the sideline, which is not exactly a signal of positivity when it comes to UAB.

Still, the Blazers' 1-4 start, sideline tantrums or not, requires some context. UAB's losses came to Georgia Southern, Louisiana, Georgia and Tulane. The combined record of those programs is 16-4, and three of those games were played on the road.

To say that the strength of schedule has been difficult would be an understatement.

Enter South Florida, a few weeks removed from a competitive showing against Alabama. The Bulls are likely to be a popular selection in this matchup—especially for many picking games on records alone.

But we're going the other way. Despite the optics of last week, expect UAB to put forth a much more competitive performance. The Blazers pull a mild upset.

For the latest spreads on these games, go to DraftKings.

LSU (-5.5) at Missouri

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OXFORD, MISSISSIPPI - SEPTEMBER 30: Jayden Daniels #5 of the LSU Tigers rushes against the Mississippi Rebels in the first half at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium on September 30, 2023 in Oxford, Mississippi. (Photo by Jamie Schwaberow/Getty Images)

Oh, the defense is broken. There's really no debating that.

LSU scored 49 points and accumulated 637 yards against Ole Miss in Week 5. The Tigers still lost. Gross.

Yes, we have a bit of a mess on our hands, although it won't be as big of a mess this week. While Missouri is unbeaten—and the offense has some excellent weapons—the difference in talent on both sides could loom large.

Lost in LSU's defensive decline, at least to a degree, is the brilliance of quarterback Jayden Daniels. The QB has totaled 19 touchdowns and only two interceptions thus far, and he should add to that TD total this week.

We don't make this pick lightly. Missouri has been kind to us this year, and the win over Kansas State helped reshape our season.

As always, it's never personal. Just business.

For the latest spreads on these games, go to DraftKings.

Maryland (+19.5) at Ohio State

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COLLEGE PARK, MARYLAND - SEPTEMBER 30: The Maryland Terrapins run onto the field before the game against the Indiana Hoosiers at SECU Stadium on September 30, 2023 in College Park, Maryland. (Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images)

First, a disclaimer.

A week from now, this pick could look very bad. This is not normally the type of game I tend to side with, although it has called to me all week.

Both teams are unbeaten. The Buckeyes are 1-2-1 against the spread. Maryland is 3-2.

In terms of talent, as is the case in most games, Ohio State has a significant advantage. That is rarely not the case. But Maryland, led by QB Taulia Tagovailoa and a balanced group of wideouts, is a fascinating counter.

Granted, the Terps haven't exactly had to navigate a challenging path to arrive here. Dominating wins against Michigan State and Indiana don't exactly tell us much. But as Kyle McCord and the Ohio State offense still try to find their footing, Maryland could make things weird enough.

The Buckeyes win, although the Terps stay within the number. (Hopefully.)

For the latest spreads on these games, go to DraftKings.

Louisville vs. Notre Dame (Over 54)

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DURHAM, NC - SEPTEMBER 30: Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback Sam Hartman (10) cheers back to the crowd as he leaves the stadium after winning the college football between the Duke Blue Devils and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on September 30, 2023, on Brooks Field at Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham, NC. (Photo by Nicholas Faulkner/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

For the second week in a row, we're playing the over in a game Notre Dame is featured in. As you likely read above, the decision to do so against Duke wasn't a good one.

Louisville didn't exactly dazzle when it comes to points, either. On Friday night, the Cardinals delivered an ugly 13-10 win over NC State.

So, why back the over (again)?

This is not an emotional play, and it never is. On the Notre Dame side, Sam Hartman is likely to do some heavy lighting in this spot. For as much as the Irish offense sputtered in and near the red zone against Duke, the effort this time around should be much cleaner.

For Louisville, playing at home should help a great deal. Jeff Brohm's team has been significantly better at home. While the Notre Dame defense will present a challenge, Louisville will still do its part to hit this over.

For the latest spreads on these games, go to DraftKings.

Other Games on the Card

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CLEMSON, SC - SEPTEMBER 23: Florida State Seminoles quarterback Jordan Travis (13) celebrates scoring a touchdown during a college football game between the Florida State Seminoles and the Clemson Tigers on September 23, 2023, at Clemson Memorial Stadium in Clemson, S.C. (Photo by John Byrum/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Army (-3) vs. Boston College

The strategy here can be delivered somewhat simply. Army can run the football, and Boston College has issues stopping the run. The Black Knights are also coming off a bye, which should help immensely.

Wyoming vs. Fresno State (Over 44.5)

Don't sleep on this game. We've already seen what Wyoming is capable of at home this year, and the Cowboys are a threat again. There's a chance these two teams soar past this total.

Florida State (-24) vs. Virginia Tech

Kudos to Va. Tech for delivering a win over Pitt last week. In Week 6, however, the Hokies hit the road to take on a Florida State team wanting to make a large impression coming off a bye. This one could be really ugly.

Ole Miss vs. Arkansas (Over 63)

The vibes surrounding this game just scream "points." Ole Miss showcased what its offense was capable of against LSU, and Arkansas certainly is always frisky. This total has a chance to end up in the 70s.

For the latest spreads on these games, go to DraftKings.