NFL Week 5 Survivor Pool Tips: Best Picks and Strategies to Stay Alive
As we enter the second month of the 2023 NFL season, you can bet that a lot of survivor pools are feeling pretty empty.
There's never been such a thing as a "guaranteed" victory in the NFL, but things have been particularly problematic this season. We're left with only two undefeated teams and two winless teams and have seen plenty of upsets.
Two weeks ago, the upstart Houston Texans throttled the Jacksonville Jaguars, while the Arizona Cardinals bested the Dallas Cowboys as double-digit underdogs. The Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles managed to come through in seemingly lopsided Week 4 matchups, but they probably gave several survivor players a scare.
With byes now kicking in, the challenge of picking one new winner each week becomes even more difficult. Below, we'll examine a couple of top picks for Week 5, using the latest odds as a guideline, and dive into some survivor strategies for the upcoming slate.
Check the latest lines at DraftKings.
General Survivor Tips for Week 5
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With only a month down, players shouldn't have to rely on the NFL's struggling teams just yet. There may come a point where depending on the Carolina Panthers or Chicago Bears becomes necessary, but it hasn't arrived yet.
At this stage, it's better to stick with the heavy favorites when possible and avoid the tricky matchups.
The Chiefs find themselves in a dicey matchup with the volatile Minnesota Vikings. While Kansas City is a five-point favorite in Minnesota, its lackluster offensive play in Week 4 is concerning.
The Vikings have a potent offense and can be dangerous if they learn to stop turning the ball over. The Chiefs are far from a lock.
The same is true of the Buffalo Bills, who are 5.5-point favorites over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Should Buffalo win the game? Certainly, but this has "trap-game" potential with the contest in London and coming on the heels of a blowout victory over the Miami Dolphins.
If Josh Allen returns to the mistake-prone form he exhibited in Week 1, the Jags might depart with a 2-0 record in England.
It's also too early to consider tough divisional matchups like the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers tile. Baltimore, which is a four-point favorite, should be able to handle a Steelers team that could be without both Kenny Pickett and Pat Freiermuth.
However, Steelers-Ravens clashes are notoriously feisty, and Pittsburgh has won five of the last six meetings.
Would it be a shock to see T.J. Watt and the Steelers defense take over the game as it did against the Cleveland Browns in Week 2? Absolutely not.
Detroit Lions over Carolina Panthers
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If you haven't hopped on the Detroit Lions yet this season, now is the perfect time. Detroit looks like it could be a legitimate title contender, and it's coming off a big Thursday night win over the rival Green Bay Packers.
The extra time to rest and prepare should give the Lions a big edge at home against the Carolina Panthers—who are 9.5 underdogs.
What really makes this an enticing survivor pick, though, is the way that the Lions are constructed. They can generate pressure with their front four, control the line of scrimmage on both sides and bully opposing defense with David Montgomery and the ground game. On top of that, head coach Dan Campbell will ensure that this team never loses focus.
"We're not the hunted, because we're going to stay on the hunt," Campbell said, per Dave Hogg of the Associated Press.
Detroit can create a lot of problems for an 0-4 Panthers team that A.) ranks 29th in yards per carry allowed, B.) lacks a go-to receiver for rookie quarterback Bryce Young, and C.) has struggled to protect the quarterback (14 sacks allowed).
The Lions should win this one comfortably.
Miami Dolphins over New York Giants
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The Miami Dolphins showed that their offense isn't unstoppable during a 48-20 loss to the Buffalo Bills in Week 4. However, there are a couple of important factors to consider from that game.
For one, Buffalo did an excellent job of limiting top Dolphins receiver Tyreek Hill (three catches, 58 yards). Few teams are going to meet the challenge as successfully. Secondly, the Buffalo crowd did a remarkable job of disrupting Miami's offensive communication.
"I don't know how in our world it can get any louder. It sounded like jet engines," Bills head coach Sean McDermott said, per Nick Wojton of Bills Wire.
Miami shouldn't have communication issues at home against the New York Giants this week. They should also be able to withstand a Giants offense that might not have Andrew Thomas and Saquon Barkley back from injury.
New York has averaged just 11.5 points per game. The Dolphins are 11-point favorites this week.
The Giants have struggled against the pass and rank 27th in yards per attempt allowed, 19th in total yards allowed and 30th in points allowed.
This is a horrible matchup for the Giants and a great one for players looking to ride Miami in order to survive another week.
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