NFL Odds Week 5: Top Longshots to Bet Against the Spread
The NFL strives for parity, and it's getting plenty of it in 2023. Only two teams are undefeated, two remain winless, and 12 teams sit at 2-2.
This makes it difficult to view all but a few teams as true underdogs in any given contest. It also means that we're likely to see dogs continue pulling off outright upsets moving forward.
Heading into Week 5, a few underdogs appear poised to put teams on upset alert. You'll find a look at our favorite longshots to bet against the spread and why they're worth backing with the early-week lines.
Check the latest lines at DraftKings.
New Orleans Saints +1.5 at New England Patriots
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The New Orleans Saints look like a very vulnerable team following their 26-9 loss to the rival Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 4.
Derek Carry (shoulder) wasn't 100 percent healthy, but it was an overall poor performance by the Saints offense.
"That's no excuse for us playing the way we did today," Carr said. per Guerry Smith of the Associated Press. "Whatever it is that I have to do, I'll do it. I just don't want the shoulder to be an excuse for the way that we executed."
There's a chance, though, that New Orleans can bounce back this week against the New England Patriots. The Saints still have a strong defense (11th overall, 9th in points allowed) and will face an anemic Patriots offense.
New England has averaged less than 14 points per game this season.
While the Patriots defense is also solid, it won't have two key players. Rookie cornerback Christian Gonzalez is expected to miss time with a dislocated shoulder, while pass-rusher Matthew Judon is out indefinitely with a biceps tear.
New England's defense lifted the Patriots to their only win of the season—over the New York Jets—but with Gonzalez and Judon out, the Saints stand a good chance of moving to 3-2.
New York Jets +2 at Denver Broncos
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The Jets offense showed signs of life in Week 4, albeit in a loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. Quarterback Zach Wilson had arguably his best game as a pro—he finished 28-of-39 for 245 yards and two touchdowns—and the Jets had a tied ballgame entering the fourth quarter.
Now New York travels to take on the Denver Broncos, who got their first win of the season in a comeback effort against the Chicago Bears on Sunday. Russell Wilson and the Broncos offense have looked better under head coach Sean Payton, and they rallied from a 28-7 deficit in Week 4.
However, it's worth noting that Denver was aided by a Justin Fields fumble that was returned for a touchdown, some questionable Bears playcalling and Chicago's 31st-ranked scoring defense.
The Jets defense, which ranks 14th in points allowed, will present a much stiffer challenge. New York and Wilson will also have a chance to build on their Week 4 positivity against a Broncos defense that is comically bad.
Denver ranks 31st in yards per rush allowed, 32nd in yards per pass attempt allowed, 32nd in yards allowed and 32nd in points allowed. The Broncos are only favored in this game because they're at home, and it should sock exactly no one to see New York record its second win of the season.
Arizona Cardinals +3 Versus Cincinnati Bengals
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Sunday's game between the Arizona Cardinals and Cincinnati Bengals will feature one of only three four-game starters with zero interceptions on the season. It isn't Joe Burrow.
Cardinals QB Joshua Dobbs has been better than most expected this season. While he's only led Arizona to a 1-3 record, he helped upend the Dallas Cowboys in Week 3 and has a strong 99.4 passer rating.
The Bengals are road favorites, but they're going to need to force Dobbs into multiple mistakes to actually win. This is because Burrow's calf injury continues to be a problem, and the Cincinnati offense is suffering significantly.
Cincinnati has yet to score a first-half touchdown, has not scored a touchdown on the road and ranks dead-last in total offense. To make matters worse, wideout Tee Higgins is dealing with a fractured rib, though he may try to suit up on Sunday.
"Pain-wise, I might be able to go this week. I might not. You never know," Higgins said, per ESPN's Ben Baby.
The Bengals haven't been able to lean on a strong defense either, as the team ranks just 24th in yards and 18th in points allowed. Cincinnati may still be able to gut out a victory here, but it's hard to see the Bengals winning by more than a field goal.
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