NFL Week 5 Odds: Building the Best Parlays from Early Spreads, Lines and Over/Unders
The second month of the 2023 season has arrived and will officially kick off when the Washington Commanders host the Chicago Bears on Thursday night.
It's still early in the season, but we're starting to get a better idea of which teams are legitimate contenders and which are not. Of course, injuries have clouded the picture for a few franchises.
The Cincinnati Bengals, for example, are playing much worse than their talent level would suggest, but they've been hindered by Joe Burrow's nagging calf injury.
Naturally, Vegas has been on top of every development and has done a great job of adjusting the lines during each week. Oftentimes, the early-week odds have been the best place to find value.
Here, we'll dive into some of the early lines of Week 5 and craft three parlays worth considering before the odds change.
Check the latest lines at DraftKings.
Three-Game Parlay
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Detroit Lions -9 versus Carolina Panthers
Buffalo Bills -5.5 versus Jacksonville Jaguars
San Francisco 49ers -3.5 versus Dallas Cowboys
The Detroit Lions face one of the biggest lines of the week, opening as nine-point favorites over the Carolina Panthers. However, Detroit should cover at home.
The Lions are coming off a big Thursday night win over the Green Bay Packers and will have had extra time to prepare for Carolina. While the Panthers have shown some glimpses of promise, they're even more inconsistent than the Packers.
Rookie QB Bryce Young is still adapting to the speed and nuance of the NFL game, and things won't get any easier against Aidan Hutchinson and a ferocious Detroit defensive front.
Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, David Montgomery and the Lions offense can generate enough points to walk away with a two-score win.
The Jacksonville Jaguars will find a slight advantage in playing in London for the second consecutive week. The Jags got back on track in Week 4 and won't have to make the overseas adjustments that the Buffalo Bills face.
Yet, Buffalo is playing at too high a level for the advantage to hold over four quarters. The Bills have remained focused and quarterback Josh Allen has played mostly mistake-free football ever since Buffalo's Week 1 overtime loss to the New York Jets.
It's likely going to take a turnover-filled performance from Allen for Jacksonville to stay within a touchdown here. As long as the line remains below seven points, there should be no hesitation in picking Buffalo.
Fans shouldn't wait to jump on the San Francisco 49ers at the current line either. The Dallas Cowboys have looked dominant in three of their four games, but Dallas hasn't really played anyone of note either.
Dallas has had a significant issue in the red zone under Mike McCarthy this season, with a touchdown conversion rate of only 36.8 percent. Don't expect the Cowboys to suddenly figure it out against a 49ers defense ranked fifth overall and third in points allowed.
While the Cowboys have enough playmakers to keep this one close, the 49ers might have an even better group. Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle will create mismatches against a Dallas defense that is missing star corner Trevon Diggs (injured reserve, torn ACL).
Expect the 49ers to win by more than a field goal.
Single-Game Parlay
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Lions -9 versus Panthers
Lions -425 (bet $425 to win $100) to Win
Lions and Panthers Under 43.5 Points
If you're confident that the Lions can cover, it's worth doubling down with the money line, even if the money-line payout isn't great.
Fans got a firsthand look at how disruptive the Detroit defense can be against Green Bay, when it made life miserable for Jordan Love while rarely bringing an extra defender on the blitz.
While Love doesn't have a ton of playing time on his resume, he's been in the league far longer than Young. The first overall pick is off to an extremely slow start, and his production reflects this.
Young's quarterback rating (75.0) ranks 30th among qualifying quarterbacks this season. With no true go-to targets to work with, the Alabama product will struggle against the Lions defense.
The Panthers defense is also going to struggle. Cornerback Jaycee Horn remains on injured reserve, and Carolina has had a hard time slowing the opposition all season. The Panthers have allowed 4.7 yards per carry, 5.8 yards per pass attempt and 25.5 points per game.
It would be a mild surprise if the Lions don't top 20 points for the third time this season. However, the under is still enticing here because of Detroit's defense and ability to play ball-control offense.
This one could be very similar to the 20-6 victory Detroit had against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 3.
Over/Under Parlay
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Lions and Panthers Under 43.5 Points
Ravens and Steelers Over 39 Points
Bengals and Cardinals Under 44 Points
While the Lions and Panthers could be a one-sided and relatively low-scoring affair, The Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers should hit the over with an extremely low line of only 39 points.
The Steelers defense can be tough at home, but it has surrendered no fewer than 20 points in home games this season. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens feature one of the best offenses the Steelers have seen, as evidenced by the 28-point outing against a terrific Cleveland Browns defense last Sunday.
Baltimore is probably a notch below the 49ers, but San Francisco dropped 30 on the Steelers in Week 1. The Houston Texans did the same at home in Week 2.
Even in its two blowout losses, the Steelers have seen point totals of 36 and 37 points. Even with Kenny Pickett likely out with a knee injury, this one should reach 40 points.
Neither of the Ravens-Steelers meetings reached 40 points in 2022, but Baltimore was playing without Jackson. The change from Pickett to Mitch Trubisky shouldn't be as impactful.
Burrow's calf injury has been and will continue to be impactful. The 26-year-old has been unable to buy time in the pocket, attack downfield or make the Bengals offense at all threatening.
Cincinnati has yet to score a first-half touchdown and is averaging a mere 12.25 points per game. Burrow's passer rating (69.1) and the Bengals scoring offense are last in the league.
The Bengals defense, however, has done a respectable job given the difficult position in which it has been placed. Cincinnati is allowing just 23.5 points per game, and the Arizona Cardinals will likely struggle to top that number.
Arizona is averaging just 22 points per game this season. With Burrow still banged-up, this should be another low-scoring affair.
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