NFL Picks 2023: Early Week 5 Odds to Exploit after Final Week 4 Results
October has arrived and the second month of the 2023 NFL season is at hand. Week 5 kicks off on Thursday night with an intriguing battle between the Washington Commanders and the Chicago Bears.
While the Bears and Commanders both lost in Week 4, they showed signs of progress. Justin Fields and the Chicago offense looked good for the first time this season. The Commanders took the reigning NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles into overtime.
it should be a fun way to start the week, even if neither team is a legitimate title contender. Fans looking to make it a little more interesting will be looking to play the lines. You'll find our thoughts on that and a couple of other early lines worth exploiting before the odds start to move.
Check the latest lines at DraftKings.
Commanders -6.5 Versus Bears
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Fields put on a show in Week 4, throwing for 335 yards and four touchdowns. However, his performance may have been a mirage, as it came against a woefully bad Denver Broncos defense.
The Bears QB also had two disastrous turnovers, and Denver came back to win against an equally awful Bears defense. Fields lost a fumble that was returned for a touchdown, and the Bears defense gave up 17 points in the second half, allowing the Broncos to battle back from 28-7.
It's hard to envision Fields playing as well against a solid Washington defense, and it's harder to see Chicago slowing Sam Howell, Terry McLaurin and the Commanders offense. While Howell is still a young quarterback, he's looked good in every game except Week 3's contest against the Buffalo Bills.
Washington's biggest offensive issue has been poor pass protection (24 sacks allowed), and the Bears aren't practically incapable of generating pressure (three sacks in four games). If the Commanders can drop 31 points on a good Eagles defense (they did), they'll score plenty against the Bears.
Expect Washington to win by more than a touchdown on Thursday. As long as the line is hovering around seven points, the Commanders are worth backing.
Lions -9 Versus Panthers
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This is a large line for this early in the week, but the Detroit Lions should cover it. Detroit is coming together as a complete team and a legitimate title contender, and there isn't a discernible weakness on the roster.
Detroit is coming off a dominant performance against the rival Green Bay Packers in Lambeau and will return home with extra time to recover and prepare. That's problematic for the Carolina Panthers, who haven't played well on either side of the ball.
Carolina's defense has surrendered at least 20 points in every game, and standout cornerback Jaycee Horn remains on injured reserve with a hamstring injury. Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta and the Lions passing attack will find space against the Panthers.
David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs and the Lions rushing attack could have a field day with a Panthers defense allowing 4.7 yards per carry this season.
Detroit's fantastic front four will also be a problem for rookie quarterback Bryce Young. Carolina's first-year signal-caller is struggling to adapt to the NFL (75.0 QB rating) and will have a hard time with the likes of Aidan Hutchinson and Alim McNeill consistently in his face.
Detroit should win by double digits for the second consecutive week.
49ers -3.5 Versus Cowboys
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This should be the game of the week. The San Francisco 49ers appear to be the team to beat in the NFC, and the Dallas Cowboys returned for form—sort of—against the New England Patriots in Week 4.
A week after losing by two scores to the Arizona Cardinals, Dallas notched a 38-3 win over the Patriots. The final score looks impressive, but it wasn't as good of an offensive game as the score might indicate.
The Cowboys scored 14 of their points on defense. They also had another three trips in scoring range result in field goals, which shows that the offense's red-zone issues under Mike McCarthy have not dissipated.
Coming into Week 4, Dallas converted just 40 percent of its red-zone opportunities into touchdowns, according to Pro Football Reference. San Francisco has one of the top defenses in the NFL, and field goals aren't going to get it done against a 49ers team that features Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle on offense.
This is a surprisingly small line, considering the 49ers are at home. Fans should target it before it grows.
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