NFL Odds Week 5: Early Locks and Best Bets on the Schedule
The first month of the 2023 NFL season is complete, and only the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers remain undefeated.
Even the Eagles had a tough time in Week 4, though, needing overtime to put away the Washington Commanders. The league seems to have reached peak parity, making it more difficult than ever to predict how close games will be.
Week 5 will be another tough one to sort through, but a few of the early lines do appear favorable. Below, you'll find three of our top picks to target before the odds begin to shift.
Check the latest lines at DraftKings.
Bills -5.5 Versus Jaguars
1 of 3
The Jacksonville Jaguars finally clicked in Week 4, routing the Atlanta Falcons in the relatively familiar confines of Wembley Stadium in London.
However, Jacksonville is set to face a scary-good Buffalo Bills squad that has looked like one of the league's best since its Week 1 overtime loss.
The Bills just handled the Miami Dolphins 48-20, showcasing just how complete of a team they have become.
The defense, which entered Week 4 ranked second in points and yards allowed, held Miami to 50 fewer points than it scored the previous Sunday. Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs and the Buffalo offense have found their groove.
The 2-2 Jaguars are by no means bad, but it's hard to envision them hanging with the Bills, barring another turnover-heavy meltdown by Allen. The Bills QB turned it over four times in Week 1 but has played mostly clean football since.
Fans shouldn't count on another disaster of a day from Allen, and Buffalo is the team to trust here. This is another London game—this one at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium—but that's not enough of an advantage for Jacksonville.
This line is likely to grow over the course of the week, so this is one to jump on early.
Lions -9 Versus Panthers
2 of 3
This is a large line for this early in the week, but the Detroit Lions are perfectly capable of coming through. They are coming off a big 34-20 win over the rival Green Bay Packers on Thursday and have extra time to rest and prepare.
For many teams, this might represent a trap game. However, head coach Dan Campbell won't allow the Lions to lose their focus or intensity. He's forged a winning culture in the Motor City, and his players aren't about to take anyone lightly.
The Carolina Panthers remain winless, and that's not going to change after Week 5. Their defense has surrendered at least 20 points in every game, and it will struggle to contain Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, David Montgomery and the Lions' balanced and potent offensive attack.
It's Aidan Hutchinson and the Detroit defensive front that will truly make the difference in this game, though. The Lions are capable of generating consistent pressure while only rushing four, which makes it hard for opposing quarterbacks to find open targets.
The game is still moving fast for Panthers rookie QB Bryce Young, who lacks a legitimate go-to receiver. This should be another double-digit victory for Detroit.
Cardinals +3.5 Versus Bengals
3 of 3
Heading into the season, this looked like one of the biggest mismatches of the season. However, the Arizona Cardinals and Cincinnati Bengals are both 1-3 and, believe it or not, Joshua Dobbs has been outplaying Joe Burrow.
Burrow isn't healthy, of course, but that's the issue with Cincinnati. His nagging calf injury is limiting his ability to avoid pressure and push the ball down the field. While he hasn't taken a ton of sacks, the explosive element of Cincinnati's offense is absent.
According to Zachary Pereles of CBS Sports, Burrow's 4.8 yards per attempt is the lowest mark of any NFL quarterback through four games since 1950. The Cardinals defense might not be great, but it can generate pressure (12 sacks through four games).
Cincinnati's ground game continues to struggle, and now wide receiver Tee Higgins is dealing with a rib injury. At this point, it's hard to see the Bengals beating anyone on the road by more than a field goal.
It wouldn't be a shock to see the Cardinals win this one outright, and fans should expect the line to move closer toward Arizona, especially if Cincinnati does the rational thing and sits Burrow until he's fully recovered.
Gambling problem? Call (877-8-HOPENY) or text HOPENY (467369).
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL/IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 888-789-7777/visiting ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-877-770-STOP (7867) (LA), visiting OPGR.org (OR), or calling/texting TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) or 1-888-532-3500 (VA).
Odds and lines subject to change. 21+ (18+ NH/WY). AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/LA/MI/NH/NJ/NY/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
