NFL Picks Week 4: Best Favorites to Bet Before Odds Change
Surprises happen all the time in the NFL. We saw it last Sunday when the Arizona Cardinals handled the heavily favored Dallas Cowboys. Sometimes, though, the favorites perform exactly as they're supposed to.
The Detroit Lions were slight favorites over the Green Bay Packers on Thursday night. Detroit came out with the confidence of a superior team and took it to the Packers in Lambeau from start to finish.
Fans looking to back favorites will be searching for teams more likely to perform like Detroit than Dallas (welcome to 2023). Below, we'll dive into a few other favorites we like in Week 4.
Check the latest lines at DraftKings.
Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 at Tennessee Titans
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The Tennessee Titans are looking to rebound after an embarrassing game against the Cleveland Browns, and they will have home-field advantage.
What the Titans won't have is a reliable offensive line and a consistent running game. Derrick Henry has been held to just 3.2 yards per carry this season, and Tennessee's inability to establish the run has led to a lot of 3rd-and-long situations.
The bigger issue is that Tennessee has been absolutely horrendous in 3rd-and-long.
"Across the NFL this season, teams that aren't the Titans allow sacks on 9% of third downs with 10 or more yards to gain. The Titans are giving up sacks in 31% of those situations," Nick Suss of The Tennessean wrote on Wednesday.
Against Trey Hendrickson and a potent Cincinnati Bengals pass rush, the Titans are going to struggle offensively. While Joe Burrow still doesn't appear 100 percent, he should outplay Ryan Tannehill in this one.
The Bengals have the better collection of offensive skill players, and they should win by at least a field goal.
Philadelphia Eagles -9.5 Versus Washington Commanders
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The Philadelphia Eagles are undefeated, and the offense and ground game are beginning to click. However, it's Philly's defensive front that could lead to a lopsided victory on the road against the rival Washington Commanders.
Washington's offensive line is struggling at a historic level. Quarterback Sam Howell has already been sacked 19 times, putting him on pace for 107 sacks taken this season. The record for sacks taken has remained at 72 since David Carr's 2002 season.
Against the Buffalo Bills in Week 3, Howell was sacked nine times and tossed four interceptions. Now, he'll face an Eagles defensive front that is better than Buffalo's.
Washington's defense is solid, but as the Bills showed in their 37-3 win, it's not invulnerable. Jalen Hurts, D'Andre Swift and the Eagles should get enough going to put this one away relatively early.
Divisional games are often close because they involve teams very familiar with one another. This one won't be close.
Kansas City Chiefs -9 at New York Jets
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This one isn't quite as "safe" as the Eagles pick for a couple of reasons.
While Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs offense finally looked good in Week 3, it happened against a lifeless Chicago Bears defense. The New York Jets present a much bigger challenge, and they will have the home field.
There's a chance that Mahomes and Co. revisit their early season struggles and failed to put up a ton of points against New York.
However, it still feels likely that Kansas City wins by double digits. The Jets offense has been a mess with Zach Wilson under center, and it's unlikely to get better. Wilson has completed less than 50 percent of his passes in his two starts, while New York has scored exactly 10 points in each of them.
The Chiefs defense is good, very good. Kansas City ranks seventh in yards allowed and fourth in points allowed. It has allowed a mere three offensive touchdowns in three games.
Even if the Jets defense plays well, New York's offense is likely to provide the Chiefs with a couple of short-field opportunities. Expect Mahomes to cash in and deliver a decisive victory.
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