NFL 2023 MVP Odds: Tips on the Favorites and Best Values for Week 4
Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa continues to be the front-runner for NFL MVP, and he became an even heavier favorite in Week 3.
The Dolphins dismantled the Denver Broncos on Sunday, racking up 726 yards of offense and 70 points (yes, really). The signal-caller was nearly flawless, finishing 23-of-26 for 309 yards and four touchdowns.
If there's a knock to be made against the 25-year-old, it's that backup Mike White (2-of-2 for 67 yards, 1 TD) also looked good running Miami's offense. Still, Tagovailoa is steering the league's most explosive attack, which makes him a strong contender to be named MVP.
It is time to jump on board the Tua train? What other players represent good values entering Week 4? Let's take a look.
Find the latest NFL MVP odds at DraftKings.
NFL MVP Favorites Entering Week 4
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Tua Tagovailoa +380 (bet $100 to win $380)
Patrick Mahomes +550
Jalen Hurts +750
Josh Allen +850
Lamar Jackson +1500
Justin Herbert +1600
Joe Burrow +2000
Trevor Lawrence +2000
Brock Purdy +2000
Consider Hedging with Tagovailoa Now
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Tagovailoa's odds are shrinking. He was a +600 favorite a week ago and is now only +380 to win the MVP.
If the Dolphins manage to outlast a very good Buffalo Bills team in Week 4—and Tagovailoa looks good against Buffalo's vaunted defense—his value is only going to further decline.
And there is a very real chance the Alabama product ends up running away with the award this season.
At this point, it feels like another injury is the only thing that could stop the Dolphins signal-caller from utter dominance in 2023, and he has done a tremendous job of avoiding hits.
Tagovailoa has been sacked only once and has been under pressure on only 7.8 percent of his dropbacks, according to Pro Football Reference. That's a ridiculously low pressure rate, and it underscores just how quickly he is getting the ball out. The numbers show just how good he has been at putting balls on target.
Through three weeks, he is completing passes at a career-high 71.3 percent rate. He leads the league in yards per attempt (10.1) and passer rating (121.9). His return from a series of 2022 concussions also makes for a great story, which could be a factor for MVP voters.
Now is the perfect time to jump in on Tagovailoa—before he becomes an even heavier favorite—with an eye on a couple of longer shots.
Take Advantage of Jordan Love's Shift
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Despite winning in Week 3, Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love saw his MVP odds grow longer. A +6000 long shot a week ago, he is now +10000 to win the award.
A largely mundane stat line (22-of-44 for 259 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) is likely responsible for his odds shift. However, the way the 24-year-old finished the game shouldn't be dismissed.
Love and the Packers were down 17-0 entering the fourth quarter. Against a very good New Orleans Saints defense, he led three fourth-quarter scoring drives—and four red-zone trips—ultimately giving Green Bay a one-point victory. He shined when the pressure was at its greatest and made several clutch throws along the way.
"We weren't surprised. We see him do it every day, so we know what he can do," Green Bay receiver Dontayvion Wicks told reporters.
While Love isn't producing the eye-popping statistics that his Dolphins counterpart is, he's still thrown for seven touchdowns and just one interception. Only Tagovailoa and Kirk Cousins have thrown more touchdown passes this season.
If Love can go on to lead the league in touchdowns while providing highlight moments like Sunday's completed comeback, he'll have a chance to be named MVP. At these odds, he is very much worth a flier.
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Consider Christian McCaffrey as a Non-QB Alternative
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The MVP award has become a quarterback award, with Adrian Peterson being the last non-QB to win it in 2012. However, there's a chance San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey could break the streak, if Tagovailoa stumbles at some point in 2023.
At least a few voters may look at Miami's cache of offensive playmakers and Mike McDaniel's creative play-calling and decide Tagovailoa isn't necessarily the most valuable player on his team. A couple of poor performances could be enough to prevent him from being a lock.
It's hard to argue McCaffrey isn't the most important player on San Francisco's offense. The 49ers have several premier skill players, like George Kittle and Deebo Samuel, but the Stanford product is a force in both the running and passing games.
Through three weeks, McCaffrey leads the NFL with 353 rushing yards. He also has 11 receptions for 70 yards and has found the end zone in every single game. He's currently on pace for 2,000 rushing yards, 62 receptions, 397 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns.
Those numbers will be enough to earn the 27-year-old MVP consideration if the 49ers hold the league's best record and there's any sort of uncertainty in the quarterback race.
It's a long shot, of course, and McCaffrey's odds (+2500) reflect this. For anyone who believes it's time for a non-quarterback to be named MVP, though, he's the dark horse to back.
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