NFL Picks Week 4: Early Odds to Exploit for Best Over/Under Score Bets
Predicting who will win or lose has become a challenge during the 2023 NFL season. Aside from, perhaps, the San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles, there doesn't appear to be a truly dominant team in the NFL this season.
The Dallas Cowboys appeared to be a top-tier contender during the first two weeks, then they went and laid an egg against the previously winless Arizona Cardinals.
Sometimes, it's easier to predict how a game will be played instead of the outcome. If two teams with bad defenses are facing off, for example, there's a good chance that it will be a high-scoring affair. This is where over/under lines can become a bettor's best friend.
Below, we'll sort through some of what we've seen over the first three weeks and examine our favorite over/under bets for Week 4 based on the early week lines.
Check the latest lines at DraftKings.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints Under 39 Points
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This game features an extremely low under/over, but there's reason to believe that the under will hit here.
The New Orleans Saints have a fantastic defense that ranks ninth in yards allowed and sixth in points allowed. New Orleans has allowed no more than 18 points in a game this season. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, meanwhile, have averaged just 19.3 points per game offensively.
There's a very good chance that Baker Mayfield and the Bucs fail to reach 20 points in this one.
The Saints offense, meanwhile, will likely be hampered by the absence of quarterback Derek Carr. While Carr is considered week to week with an AC joint sprain, Jameis Winston is expected to start, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter.
Winston failed to lead New Orleans to any points following Carr's Week 3 exit. Even with Alvin Kamara back from a three-game suspension, the Saints will struggle to score against a Buccaneers defense tied for ninth in points allowed.
This should be a game dictated by defense, and it would be a surprise to see either team put three touchdowns on the board.
Kansas City Chiefs and New York Jets Under 42.5 Points
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The Kansas City Chiefs are beginning to find a rhythm offensively and appear more potent than either the Bucs or the Saints. In Week 3, Kansas City racked up 41 points by itself.
However, the Chiefs rolled a Chicago Bears team that has been a defensive sieve this season. The New York Jets will be a much tougher challenge, and it could keep the Chiefs in check on the scoreboard.
Expect a performance closer to those of Weeks 1 and 2, where Kansas City averaged just 18.5 points per game.
On the other side, a terrific Chiefs defense should limit Zach Wilson and the Jets.
Wilson has been drastically ineffective as a starter this season, completing less than 50 percent of his passes over the past two weeks. He continues to struggle with his progressions, and he can be pressured into making game-altering mistakes.
Against the Cowboys in Week 2, Wilson tossed three second-half interceptions that allowed Dallas to run away with the game.
The Chiefs, who have eight sacks on the season, can pressure Wilson and limit New York's scoring potential. Kansas City ranks fourth in points allowed and has surrendered just three offensive touchdowns in 2023.
Kansas City could easily win by two scores and still hit the under here.
Seattle Seahawks and New York Giants over 47 Points
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Fans might want to jump on this over/under now because if Saquon Barkley is active on Monday night, the line is likely to rise.
There's a very real chance that Barkley does play after missing Week 3 with an ankle injury.
"He's really now in the day-to-day category," Giants head coach Brian Daboll said on Tuesday, per ESPN's Jordan Raanan.
Without Barkley, New York mustered a mere 12 points in Week 3, but it was battling a terrific 49ers defense. The Seattle Seahawks defense isn't nearly as good. In fact, both defenses in this one have been lackluster.
The Giants have allowed no fewer than 28 points in a game this season, while Seattle has allowed at least 27. After scoring 37 points in consecutive weeks, Geno Smith and the Seahawks might approach 40 points by themselves.
The point totals in Seattle games this season have been 43, 68 and 64.
New York may only need to produce a couple of touchdowns for the over to hit here, and it should be able to do so at home against Seattle—especially if Barkley is indeed healthy enough to play.
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