NFL Odds Week 4: Top Long Shots to Bet Against the Spread
The 2023 NFL season has become a tricky one to sort through.
Aside from a few teams that are clearly great, like the San Francisco 49ers, or obviously bad, such as the Chicago Bears, most squads appear capable of winning or losing any given matchup.
Even extreme underdogs, like the Arizona Cardinals, have produced wins this season. They came in as a double-digit dog to the Dallas Cowboys and left Week 3 with a double-digit victory.
We're probably going to see an upset or two in Week 4, and we're likely to see teams expected to lose badly keep things close instead.
Which Week 4 underdogs have the best chance to cover the midweek lines? Let's take a look.
Check the latest lines at DraftKings.
Miami Dolphins +3 at Buffalo Bills
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Divisional games are often close, and this one should be no different. The Buffalo Bills have looked good over the last two weeks, and they have home-field advantage against the Miami Dolphins.
However, Miami's offense is surging, as evidenced by Sunday's 70-point outing against the Denver Broncos.
Buffalo's defense, which ranks second in yards and points allowed, will provide a much stiffer test than Denver did. But it's hard to believe Miami won't find ways to break a few big plays after averaging 43.3 points over the first three weeks.
There's a chance wideout Jaylen Waddle (concussion) will also be back for Week 4.
"Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle is still in concussion protocol but HC Mike McDaniel said they are 'very optimistic' on how he's feeling and progressing to exit the protocol," NFL Network's Cameron Wolfe posted on X, formerly known as Twitter.
Miami simply has too many offensive playmakers for Buffalo to stop all of them. The Bills went 2-1 against the Dolphins last season (including the playoffs), but their two victories each came by three points.
The Dolphins can pull the outright upset here, and it won't be a shock to see the line creep closer toward Miami throughout the week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 at New Orleans Saints
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Baker Mayfield had his first bad game as a Tampa Bay Buccaneer during Monday night's lopsided loss to the Philadelphia Eagles.
The Eagles, though, are title contenders. We don't yet know what the New Orleans Saints are going to be.
New Orleans has a tremendous defense, but its offense has been inconsistent all season. The Saints should have star running back Alvin Kamara now that his three-game suspension has ended, but they may be without quarterback Derek Carr.
The 32-year-old suffered an AC joint sprain in Week 3, and according to ESPN's Adam Schefter, he is unlikely to face the Buccaneers. This means Tampa is likely to face its former quarterback, Jameis Winston.
The 2015 No. 1 pick is a high-end backup, but he's a downgrade from the starter. When Carr exited in Week 3, the Saints were up 17-0, but they produced no points with Winston under center.
Points aren't easy to come by against Tampa, which is tied for ninth in points allowed.
If Mayfield returns to the solid form we saw in the first two weeks, the Bucs can win outright. If the Saints win, they won't win by much.
New England Patriots +7 at Dallas Cowboys
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The Cowboys face a surprisingly large line, considering how things went against the Cardinals on Sunday. The loss of cornerback Trevon Diggs (torn ACL) has clearly impacted the defense, and Dallas seemed ill-prepared in a mistake-filled outing.
The Cowboys were flagged 13 times for 107 yards.
Expect a cleaner game from Dallas against the New England Patriots this week, but all of the team's issues won't suddenly disappear.
It will be up against a very good Patriots defense, one ranked fifth overall and ninth (tied) in points allowed. With the Cowboys already struggling in the red zone—they have a 40 percent touchdown conversion rate—that's going to be an issue.
The question is whether New England can generate enough offense to exploit Diggs' absence. Quarterback Mac Jones has been better under Bill O'Brien, but the offense is averaging just 17.3 points per game.
Don't expect the Patriots to do enough offensively to win in Dallas, but they can keep it within a score. New England held the Dolphins to only 24 points in Week 2 and has yet to lose by more than seven points.
As long as the line remains at a touchdown, take the Patriots and the points here.
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