Bleacher Report's 2023-24 Bowl Projections Entering Week 5
The busiest Saturday of the 2023 college football season so far produced a limited impact on current bowl projections.
How's that for a juxtaposition?
While the recent weekend featured more than a handful of tremendous games and Top 25 battles, the favorites largely won. Florida State held off Clemson, Ohio State beat Notre Dame as time expired and so on with Alabama, Oregon, Penn State and Utah.
The most meaningful upset belonged to Washington State. But the Cougars were only a 3.5-point underdog to Oregon State and aren't considered a Pac-12 front-runner anyway.
Awesome slate. Didn't change much.
Perhaps the chaos will arrive in Week 5. In the meantime, though, B/R's latest bowl projections have stayed reasonably static.
Group of 5 Matchups
1 of 6
Bahamas (Dec. 16): Liberty vs. Eastern Michigan
New Orleans (Dec. 16): Georgia State vs. Western Kentucky
Cure (Dec. 16): Florida Atlantic vs. Louisiana
New Mexico (Dec. 16): Wyoming vs. New Mexico State
Myrtle Beach (Dec. 18): Temple vs. Appalachian State
Frisco (Dec. 19): Rice vs. Troy
Boca Raton (Dec. 21): Louisiana Tech vs. Georgia Southern
Camellia (Dec. 23): Ohio vs. South Alabama
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (Dec. 23): Miami (OH) vs. San Diego State
68 Ventures (Dec. 23): Central Michigan vs. Marshall
Hawai'i (Dec. 23): UTSA vs. UNLV
Arizona (Dec. 30): Ball State vs. Boise State
Stock Up: Georgia State Panthers
For the first time in program history, Georgia State is 4-0. But given their remaining slate, I wouldn't break out a pen to write the Panthers' name in the postseason just yet. In particular, a four-game stretch opposite Georgia Southern, James Madison, Appalachian State and LSU is a looming gauntlet. Georgia State has a terrific shot at making a bowl, though.
Stock Down: Ball State Cardinals
Meanwhile, Ball State is teetering on the edge of the projections. Last weekend's ugly 40-3 loss to Georgia Southern is obviously a sign of major concern. Picking up a win at Western Michigan in Week 5 would be a crucial result for the Cardinals' postseason hopes.
Group of 5 vs. Power 5
2 of 6
LA (Dec. 16): Washington State vs. Fresno State
Gasparilla (Dec. 22): Auburn vs. Coastal Carolina
Birmingham (Dec. 23): South Carolina vs. Tulane
Armed Forces (Dec. 23): Arkansas vs. Army
Quick Lane (Dec. 26): Minnesota vs. Toledo
Military (Dec. 27): Wake Forest vs. Memphis
Fenway (Dec. 28): Pitt vs. SMU
Moving Up: South Carolina Gamecocks
South Carolina quietly picked up a huge win against Mississippi State. Both programs were already looking at a potential max of six victories, and South Carolina likely wouldn't have reached the mark without a win over MSU. But the Gamecocks stayed alive with a 37-30 triumph and bounced Mississippi State out of the projections.
Sliding Down: Pitt Panthers
I'm definitely on the brink of dropping Pitt. Three straight losses have put the Panthers in a precarious spot. The good news is that Pitt should knock out Virginia Tech this weekend, and both Louisville and Wake Forest are tough but winnable games. If the Panthers drop one, though, they're out.
Power 5 Matchups, Part I
3 of 6
Independence (Dec. 16): West Virginia vs. UCLA
Las Vegas (Dec. 23): Iowa vs. Colorado
First Responder (Dec. 26): Cincinnati vs. Arizona
Guaranteed Rate (Dec. 26): Illinois vs. TCU
Mayo (Dec. 27): Duke vs. Kentucky
Holiday (Dec. 27): Louisville vs. Utah
Texas (Dec. 27): UCF vs. Texas A&M
Pinstripe (Dec. 28): North Carolina State vs. Rutgers
Pop-Tarts (Dec. 28): North Carolina vs. Kansas
Alamo (Dec. 28): Oklahoma vs. Oregon
Stock Up: West Virginia Mountaineers
West Virginia head coach Neal Brown opened the 2023 campaign on the hot seat, and a 23-point loss to Penn State in the opener didn't reduce the temperature. Since then, the 'Eers have rattled off victories over Duquesne, rival Pitt and conference foe Texas Tech. The remainder of slate is very favorable, too. West Virginia somehow managed to avoid Texas, Kansas State and Kansas in the regular season.
Stock Down: Colorado Buffaloes
Welcome to the roller coaster, Buffs. They soared into the projections thanks to a 3-0 start. However, Oregon hammered Colorado last weekend, and USC is up next. Colorado is a flashy team—and the Las Vegas Bowl is a similar type of destination—but Washington State's success could bump a popular Colorado squad down the Pac-12 selection order.
Power 5 Matchups, Part II
4 of 6
Gator (Dec. 29): Clemson vs. Florida
Sun (Dec. 29): Syracuse vs. Oregon State
Liberty (Dec. 29): BYU vs. Ole Miss
Music City (Dec. 30): Maryland vs. Missouri
ReliaQuest (Jan. 1): Miami vs. Tennessee
Citrus (Jan. 1): Wisconsin vs. Alabama
Stock Up: Maryland Terrapins
Not only have the Terps cruised to a 4-0 record against a soft slate, but they've won each game by at least 18 points. Maryland is set up nicely to chase the program's first eight-win regular season since 2010.
Stock Down: Clemson Tigers
Clemson is probably not headed to a New Year's Six contest for only the third time in the College Football Playoff era. Yes, the Tigers have a chance to remain in the ACC picture if they avoid a third conference loss. Traveling to Syracuse this weekend won't be an easy task, though, and both Miami and North Carolina are left on Clemson's schedule, too.
Non-CFP New Year's Six Games
5 of 6
Cotton Bowl (Dec. 29): Kansas State vs. LSU
Peach Bowl (Dec. 30): Notre Dame vs. Penn State
Orange Bowl (Dec. 30): Florida State vs. Ohio State
Fiesta Bowl (Jan. 1): Air Force vs. Washington
Stock Up: Florida State Seminoles
The overtime win at Clemson didn't change anything for Florida State, and that's exactly the point. In fact, the Seminoles strengthened their shot at a New Year's Six bowl—and, yes, also the College Football Playoff—by handing Clemson its second ACC loss of the season. The door is wide open for North Carolina, Miami or someone else to leap Clemson, which is a positive for FSU.
Stock Down: Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Only one of the eight programs listed above lost in Week 4. Notre Dame is sort of the lone option here. However, this is not cause for panic, because the Fighting Irish have a definite path to a 10-win season. Do that, and they should be NY6-bound once again.
College Football Playoff
6 of 6
Rose Bowl (Jan. 1): Michigan (2) vs. USC (3)
Sugar Bowl (Jan. 1): Georgia (1) vs. Texas (4)
National Championship (Jan. 8): Georgia vs. Michigan
No changes here, although USC gave us a decent scare in the evening hours of Saturday's busy slate.
In the fourth quarter, the Trojans held a minimal 27-21 advantage over Arizona State. You know, the same ASU squad that failed to score in a 29-point loss to Fresno State in Week 3. What a sport.
Michigan started slowly opposite Rutgers but turned a seven-point halftime lead into a 31-7 victory. Georgia didn't put away UAB until the second half, either. Still, the Dawgs won 49-21 and remain the nation's top-ranked team, even though they haven't been very convincing.
Hey, at least Texas followed up its shaky performance against Wyoming with a 38-6 victory at Baylor, right?
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