NFL Picks Week 3 Best Early Player Props to Bet Before Odds Shift
The 2023 NFL season continues to be filled with surprises on an individual level.
After two weeks, Jordan Love leads the league in passer rating, Mac Jones leads the league in completions and Puka Nacua leads the NFL in touchdown receptions. If you had that trio on your preseason bingo card, congratulations, you win.
The reality is that predicting individual performances isn't easy because breakouts, slumps and injuries are hard to anticipate. It's fun to try, though, which is why player props have become a popular form of NFL wagering.
Here, we'll sort through the Week 2 results and the looming matchups to identify some of our favorite props to consider backing before the weekend.
Find all the props for this week's games at DraftKings.
Christian McCaffrey over 79.5 Rushing Yards
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The San Francisco 49ers will open Week 3 by hosting the New York Giants. Running back Christian McCaffrey is -130 (bet $130 to win $100) to top 79.5 rushing yards, which might seem like a gimme at first blush.
McCaffrey has averaged 134 rushing yards per game thus far.
The caveat here is that San Francisco could jump out to an early lead and give a lot of second-half run to backup Elijah Mitchell. The 49ers are looking to get the 25-year-old more involved anyway.
"Yeah, we definitely got to get Elijah in there more and do better with our rotation," head coach Kyle Shanahan said, per Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area.
However, there's a good chance McCaffrey approaches 100 yards before intermission. San Francisco is likely to run early and often against a Giants defense ranked 25th in yards per carry allowed.
Expect McCaffrey to hit the over, even if he splits playing time with Mitchell.
Elijah Mitchell Anytime Touchdown
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If the 49ers are looking to get Mitchell more involved, then he's likely to see more than the five carries and one target he had in Week 2.
If San Francisco does get out to an early lead—which seems likely since New York will be without Saquon Barkley—the 2021 sixth-rounder could see double-digit touches on Thursday.
This makes Mitchell an intriguing option with odds of +205 (bet $100 to win $205) to score at any point against New York.
Mitchell missed much of last season with a sprained MCL, but he got back into the game plan late. He scored in two of his final three games (including playoffs) last season and had three total touchdowns.
The 49ers may also give the Louisiana product some red-zone work if they're looking to preserve McCaffrey. That would be advantageous, as the Giants have allowed five rushing touchdowns in two games.
These are enticing odds for one of San Francisco's forgotten stars.
Brian Robinson Jr. over 56.5 Rushing Yards
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This under/over feels low for a running back who just tallied 87 rushing yards and two touchdowns in a comeback victory.
Brian Robinson Jr. has become a notable part of the Washington Commanders game plan, and he's clearly a player offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy wants to lean on.
The 24-year-old recorded a team-high 18 carries against the Denver Broncos, while fellow running back Antonio Gibson carried only twice.
The low over/under likely has a little something to do with the fact that the Buffalo Bills only surrendered 55 rushing yards in Week 2. But that was against the Las Vegas Raiders, a team that has struggled to get Josh Jacobs and the ground game going.
Two weeks ago, Buffalo surrendered 172 rushing yards to the New York Jets while allowing Breece Hall to rack up 127 on his own. Washington could be playing catch-up in this game, but Robinson should get the workload needed to reach 57 yards in Week 3.
Robinson is -115 to hit the over.
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Travis Etienne Jr. Anytime Touchdown
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The Jacksonville Jaguars didn't get into the end zone against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 2. They shouldn't struggle as much this week against the Houston Texans.
Kansas City's defense has allowed a mere 23 offensive points this season. The Texans have allowed 56 points and seven total touchdowns.
While fans should expect a bounce-back game from Trevor Lawrence and the Jags' passing attack, running back Travis Etienne Jr. is the smart pick for an anytime touchdown in this game, even at -110 odds.
Etienne has become a major focal point of the Jacksonville offense and has seen 37 touches through two weeks. He is involved in the passing game, but he's the leading rusher by a large margin (Lawrence is second with 17 carries).
Against a Texans team that has allowed six touchdowns on the ground, it feels like a near-certainty that Etienne will find the end zone at least once in Week 3.
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