Ranking Each Winless Team's Chances to Make 2023 NFL Playoffs After 0-2 Start
A 0-2 start might feel like the end of the line already for some NFL teams, and for good reason.
According to Evan Bleier of Inside Hook, fewer than 10 percent of teams that have lost their opening two games have gone on to make the playoffs since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger.
However, an 0-2 team has made the playoffs in seven of the last 10 seasons, which should continue to be a trend with a recently expanded playoff field.
With that in mind, let's rank the nine winless teams in terms of their chances to make the 2023 NFL postseason.
9. Houston Texans
1 of 9
This was always going to be a rebuilding campaign for a Houston Texans team that underwent a major offseason transformation following a three-win 2022 campaign.
They might be better than last year, and the AFC South might be weak (nobody's 2-0), but Houston has still been outscored by double-digit margins in both games this season.
And there's a good chance DeMeco Ryans' squad drops to 0-3 in Jacksonville on Sunday.
In the deep AFC, there's little chance the Texans win more than a handful of games in 2023.
8. Arizona Cardinals
2 of 9
The Arizona Cardinals are in a less deep conference than Houston, but they entered the season with similarly long playoff odds and that remains the case after losing to two likely NFC wild-card competitors to start the season.
In Arizona's defense, the squad deserves credit for hanging in against both the Washington Commanders and New York Giants.
They lost both games by just seven total points, despite being without Kyler Murray. But the quarterback might not hit the field for some time, and the Cards are likely to dig a much deeper hole in the coming weeks.
Their next seven games? Dallas, at San Francisco, Cincinnati, at the Rams, at Seattle, Baltimore and at Cleveland. Yikes. An 0-9 start is a strong possibility.
7. Carolina Panthers
3 of 9
There's still more talent on the Carolina Panthers' roster than the previous two teams, but they've scored just 27 points in two intra-divisional losses so far and three of their next four games are on the road against playoff contenders (Seattle, Detroit and Miami).
That's far from ideal when expectations were low in the first place following a transformational offseason.
This is a rebuilding year for Carolina and rookie No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young, especially considering the rest of the NFC South is shockingly undefeated.
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6. Chicago Bears
4 of 9
The Chicago Bears actually have a worse scoring margin (minus-28) than any other team on this list, but we have to leave room for quarterback Justin Fields to find his groove.
That's exactly what happened down the stretch in 2022, and the Packers and Buccaneers look like decent teams this season.
Still, the Bears are likely to lose to the Chiefs on the road this weekend, and only six teams in the last 44 years have made the playoffs after starting 0-3.
The good news is the division has just two total wins so far, but those one-sided losses out of the gate to probable NFC wild-card contenders really hurt.
5. New England Patriots
5 of 9
As much as it's easy to wonder about Mac Jones and the New England Patriots offense, this is still a Bill Belichick-coached team that is only a few breaks short of being 2-0 rather than 0-2.
Plus, they deserve extra credit for the fact that they pushed two Super Bowl contenders (Philadelphia and Miami) in those outings.
The odds remain well out of the Patriots' favor because they dropped both games and have to travel to Dallas in Week 4, plus the AFC is stacked in general, but you can't completely rule out the playoffs in Foxborough just yet.
4. Minnesota Vikings
6 of 9
Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings can never fully be counted out. They showed us that while winning 13 games despite posting a negative scoring margin in 2022.
Plus, the NFC North looks wide open this season, and the Vikes haven't exactly embarrassed themselves so far.
That said, it's hard to imagine them pulling a rabbit out of the hat for a second year in a row. The law of averages isn't on their side, and the opening two games seem to indicate this team is no better than the one that was lucky to sneak into the playoffs last year.
The Vikings also play the Chargers and Chiefs in the next three weeks, which will make it tough to get back on track before it's too late.
3. Cincinnati Bengals
7 of 9
The Cincinnati Bengals started 0-2 last year and ended up in the AFC Championship Game, so there's no way they can be placed any lower on this list.
Still, you could use the law-of-averages argument in this case. Plus, this start feels more concerning because quarterback Joe Burrow hasn't been right while dealing with a calf injury that could keep him out entirely when the team plays the Rams Monday night.
Throw in the fact that both losses out of the gate this year have come inside the division, and it's going to be tough for Zac Taylor's squad to bounce back again in 2023.
2. Denver Broncos
8 of 9
Russell Wilson is losing the benefit of the doubt after following up a poor 2022 campaign with a 0-2 start in 2023.
And it doesn't help that the Denver Broncos' first two losses have come at home against borderline playoff teams such as the Las Vegas Raiders and Washington Commanders.
Still, Wilson's raw numbers are actually much better thus far, and we should give him more time with new head coach Sean Payton.
Plus, Denver is fortunate that the rest of the AFC West has just two wins in total, leaving room for it to bounce back.
That said, the Broncos remain out of the top spot here because it's going to be hard to avoid an 0-3 start with a road matchup against the Dolphins looming in Week 3.
1. Los Angeles Chargers
9 of 9
Like the Broncos, the Los Angeles Chargers have lost each of their first two games by a field goal or less.
However, those losses have come outside of the division, and it's a little easier to be optimistic about Justin Herbert and Kellen Moore right now. Those trajectories are more promising than those belonging to Wilson and Payton.
Plus, the Bolts have an easier potential road to recovery with the Vikings and Raiders on the slate ahead of a Week 5 bye.
You can see a relatively clear path for the Chargers in a division that is off to a rough start across the board.
Look for L.A. to get it back together, even if it does so in typical roller-coaster fashion.
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