NFL Picks Week 3: Early Odds to Exploit for Best Over/Under Score Bets
The NFL seems to be achieving its goal of reaching peak parity in 2023.
Only a couple of teams—notably, the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers—appear truly dominant. The rest of the league seems to be comprised of teams that could truly win or lose in any given week.
Even "bad" teams like the Arizona Cardinals and Houston Texans have appeared competitive enough to pull off the occasional upset.
This, of course, makes things tricky for betters, who may want to avoid some of this week's lines entirely. Fortunately, those so inclined can look to the over/under lines instead.
Below, we'll sort through some of what we saw over the last two weeks and examine our favorite over/under bets for Week 3 based on the early week lines.
Check the latest lines at DraftKings.
Atlanta Falcons and Detroit Lions over 46.5 Points
1 of 3
Over Odds: -110 (Bet $110 to win $100)
The Atlanta Falcons and Detroit Lions are two of the league's more interesting teams early this season.
Atlanta has ridden a dynamic ground game and an aggressive defense to a 2-0 start, while the Lions are far more balanced than a year ago and remain NFC North favorites.
This is going to be a fun one, and it has the potential for a lot of scoring.
The Lions' defense got exposed to a degree by the Seattle Seahawks in Week 2. Injuries could further limit Detroit against Desmond Ridder, Bijan Robinson and the Falcons' offensive attack.
Pass-rusher James Houston will miss "at least" 6-8 weeks, according to NFL Media's Ian Rapoport. According to NFL Network (h/t The Athletic's Colton Pouncy), safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson is out indefinitely with a pectoral injury.
Detroit may also be without starting running back David Montgomery, who is dealing with a thigh bruise. That shouldn't limit the scoring too much, though.
Both teams are averaging more than 24 points per game, and between Robinson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs and Drake London, there are enough home-run hitters to turn this into a track meet.
Los Angeles Chargers and Minnesota Vikings over 54 Points
2 of 3
Over Odds: -110
If there's one game this week that could turn into a true score-fest it's this one. The Los Angeles Chargers and Minnesota Vikings are loaded with big-play stars such as Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.
Even with Austin Ekeler battling an ankle injury, there's a ton of offensive talent in this matchup.
Quarterbacks Justin Herbert and Kirk Cousins are perfectly capable of driving the ball down the field. L.A. is averaging 29 points per game, while Minnesota is averaging 22.5 points per game.
Offensive talent is only part of the equation here, though. Neither team has fielded a defense that is consistent or capable of shutting down an opposing attack. The Vikings rank 25th in points allowed, while the Chargers rank 30th.
Expect a back-and-forth battle similar to the game Los Angeles had against the Miami Dolphins in Week 1, a 36-34 affair.
This is a high over/under line, but the Chargers and Vikings should top it.
Tennessee Titans and Cleveland Browns Under 40.5 Points
3 of 3
Under Odds: -112
Sunday's matchup between the Tennessee Titans and Cleveland Browns is likely to be a more defense-oriented affair.
After mustering just 15 points in their season opener, the Titans got going against a bad Chargers defense in Week 2. But Tennessee is likely to trend back in the other direction this week against a Cleveland Browns defense that has suffocated opponents.
The Browns rank second in yards allowed and second in points allowed, and they've surrendered just a single offensive touchdown.
While Tennessee's defense is vulnerable to the pass, Cleveland isn't likely to get much going there. The Browns lost Nick Chubb to a season-ending knee injury in Week 2, and their offense looked lifeless without their star running back.
Deshuan Watson is a disaster and handed Cleveland a loss in Week 2 with awful pocket presence, horrible decision-making, an egregious lack of discipline and, somehow, even worse ball security.
This one should hit the under, unless Watson again hands multiple touchdowns to the opposing defense. That's a legitimate possibility, but it's the only real risk with taking the under in this one.
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