NFL Picks 2023: Early Week 3 Odds to Exploit after Final Week 2 Results
Week 2 of the 2023 NFL season concluded on Monday night with a doubleheader featuring the New Orleans Saints, Carolina Panthers, Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers.
It was a fun way to finish the week. Now, it's time to look ahead to Week 3.
The San Francisco 49ers will kick off Week 3 by hosting the New York Giants. San Francisco's opening -10.5 line is large but still enticing, as the Giants will be without do-it-all running back Saquon Barkley.
According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, Barkley is expected to miss three weeks with an ankle sprain.
Jumping in on the 49ers before the line expands would be advisable. Below, you'll find some other early-week lines that are worth exploiting before the numbers start to shift.
Check the latest lines at DraftKings.
New England Patriots -3 Versus New York Jets
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The New England Patriots fell to the Miami Dolphins on Sunday night in a 24-17 contest. While Miami was clearly the more talented team, New England did a terrific job of at least slowing the Dolphins vaunted offense.
The New York Jets, meanwhile, got steamrolled by the Dallas Cowboys in a 30-10 rout.
While the Jets' strength is its defense, New York found few answers against CeeDee Lamb, Tony Pollard and the Cowboys. The Patriots have fewer playmakers, but the tandem of Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott should pound a Jets D that gave up 134 rushing yards to Dallas.
Defensively, the Patriots are very sound, and they can wreak havoc on mistake-prone quarterback Zach Wilson. New York's 2021 first-round pick threw three second-half turnovers against the Cowboys that ended any hope of a comeback.
"I need to be better," Wilson told reporters after the loss.
Don't expect Wilson to be better against an opportunistic Patriots defense. New England hasn't lost to the Jets since 2015, and it will win by more than a field goal as long as Wilson remains under center.
Atlanta Falcons +3.5 Versus Detroit Lions
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Don't look now, but the Atlanta Falcons are 2-0. Atlanta has cut it close in both games but has made enough plays late to outlast the Carolina Panthers and Green Bay Packers. With an aggressive defense and a strong, multi-faceted ground game, the Falcons are a tough out for any opponent.
The Detroit Lions, meanwhile, experienced an emotional letdown in Week 2. After beating the reigning champion Kansas City Chiefs in Week 1, Detroit struggled to contain the Seattle Seahawks in Week 2.
Seattle did most of its offensive damage through the air, but Atlanta isn't exactly a one-dimensional team. Quarterback Desmond Ridder appeared more comfortable against Green Bay than he did in Week 1, and he has players like Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson to aid him in the passing game.
Detroit may also be without starting running back David Montgomery, who suffered a leg injury in Week 1. According to NFL Network's Tom Pelissero, Montgomery is "day to day" with a thigh bruise.
Atlanta will still have to contend with rookie first-round pick Jahmyr Gibbs on the ground, but Detroit may be the more one-dimensional team in this matchup. Look for the Falcons to keep things close and have a very real shot at pulling the upset.
Kansas City Chiefs -13 Versus Chicago Bears
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Two-touchdown lines often feel attractive for those seeking underdogs, and the Chiefs haven't exactly looked good over the first two weeks.
However, the Chicago Bears represent the perfect opportunity for Kansas City to have a "get-right" game.
Chicago's defense is just as inefficient as it was a year ago, and quarterback Justin Fields has gotten no better as a passer. He's still a dangerous threat on the ground—when offensive coordinator Luke Getsy is willing to let him run, that is—but Fields isn't seeing the field well and continues to hold the ball too long.
Kansas City stumbled against the Lions and dropped a mere 17 points on the Jacksonville Jaguars, but it still has Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Isiah Pacheco and Andy Reid.
Expect the Chiefs to score early and often against a toothless Bears defense, while Chris Jones—entering his second game back from a holdout—and the pass rush confound Fields. A two-touchdown victory is and should be the expectation here.
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