Ranking NFL's Most Surprising Teams After Week 2 of 2023 Season
The first two weeks of the 2023 NFL season have been full of surprises. Several teams that were expected to be great haven't come close to matching those lofty expectations, while a handful of squads that were projected to struggle have come out of the gate red-hot.
These results may just be outliers, and a regression to the mean could be in store starting in Week 3. But some of them might indicate what lies ahead for certain teams.
It's too early to get overly excited or to panic after two games, but we will soon have enough data to start making more accurate predictions and be able to see real trends.
With that in mind, here's a list—mostly based on how far off the projections for a team have been thus far, but also accounting for injuries, breakout performances from unexpected sources and other factors—of the most shocking teams heading into Week 3.
Win totals courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook (via ProFootballNetwork's preseason snapshot taken on August 29)
4. Cincinnati Bengals
1 of 4
2023 Projected Win Total: 10.5
2023 Record: 0-2
The Cincinnati Bengals have been a perennial Super Bowl contender ever since they selected Joe Burrow with the No. 1 overall pick in 2020, but they look like anything but one right now. The Bengals got embarrassed by the in-state rival Cleveland Browns to open the year and lost a tightly contested battle with the Baltimore Ravens this past Sunday.
Burrow, who missed most of training camp and the preseason with a calf injury, has gone only 41-of-72 for 304 yards and two touchdowns while also throwing a pick and taking three sacks. The signal-caller isn't the only Bengals offensive star slumping, as wideout Ja'Marr Chase has only 10 receptions for 70 yards, and running back Joe Mixon failed to surpass the the 60-yard rushing mark in either outing.
It isn't time for the Bengals to completely panic. They started last season with a pair of losses but finished the regular season 12-4 before finally falling to the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game. They have a stretch of winnable games on the horizon, starting in Week 3 with a prime-time matchup against the Los Angeles Rams, the team that narrowly beat them in Super Bowl LVI two years ago.
Burrow aggravated his calf injury late in Week 2 and was spotted limping on the sidelines, but he said he would have gone back in the game had the Bengals received the ball again. Fortunately for Cincinnati, the passer will get an extra day to recover ahead of the team's Monday Night Football showdown in Week 3.
If the Bengals beat the Rams, they'll have a chance to gain momentum and build a win streak with the Tennessee Titans, Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks on deck. They can't afford a loss during this stretch, as a Week 10 meeting with the Houston Texans offers the only reprieve from a brutal post-Week 7 bye slate that includes the San Francisco 49ers (Week 8), Buffalo Bills (Week 9), Ravens (Week 11), Pittsburgh Steelers (Week 12) and Jacksonville Jaguars (Week 13).
3. Atlanta Falcons
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2023 Projected Win Total: 8.5
2023 Record: 2-0
The Atlanta Falcons are still in the midst of a rebuild, but it may be time to take them seriously. They opened the year with a blowout win over the rival Carolina Panthers and followed it up by outlasting the Green Bay Packers in a hard-fought 25-24 win.
While the offense is loaded with first-round skill-position talent, including rookie tailback Bijan Robinson, Atlanta seemingly lacked a franchise quarterback and didn't have many defensive standouts. It's looking like Desmond Ridder may be the answer to the team's quarterback problems, though, as the young signal-caller has gone 34-of-50 for 352 yards and two touchdowns to start his sophomore season.
Ridder is getting plenty of support from his backfield. Robinson has been as good as advertised, accumulating 180 yards on just 29 carries and adding another 75 yards and a score on 10 receptions. Tyler Allgeier, an unexpected rookie breakout last season, has carried his strong play into his sophomore campaign with 123 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 31 totes.
The defense has been the real standout for the Falcons, who have allowed only 133.5 yards per game through the air. Safety Jessie Bates III has been a major boon for the secondary, securing a pair of picks and ranking second on the team with 13 tackles. While the run defense hasn't fared as well after giving up 238 yards over the first two games, the Falcons have done enough elsewhere to get to 2-0.
With tons of young players in prominent roles, Atlanta hasn't even scratched the surface of its potential. While this group will face tougher challenges in the weeks ahead, it would be unwise for anyone to take the Falcons lightly. They are already a real contender for a playoff spot and NFC South crown this year and should only get better with more experience.
2. Washington Commanders
3 of 4
2023 Projected Win Total: 6.5
2023 Record: 2-0
Of the eight remaining undefeated teams, Washington Commanders are one of the most surprising. They brought in a relatively unexciting crop of rookies and free agents this offseason, and they seemingly failed to address their most glaring flaw—the quarterback position—after averaging just a shade over 200 passing yards per game last season.
Perhaps the Commanders were to wise to avoid splurging on a middling veteran passer or giving up valuable assets to move up in the draft for a rookie signal-caller. Their faith in Sam Howell is already paying off, as he's guided this squad to two consecutive victories.
Howell spent most of his rookie campaign on injured reserve, but he returned to audition for a starting role in the season finale. He went 11-of-19 for 169 yards, one touchdown and one interception along with five carries for 35 yards and a touchdown in that game, but he clearly made strides in his development during the offseason.
After winning the QB1 role over veteran journeyman Jacoby Brissett, the 23-year-old has gone 46-of-70 for 501 yards, three touchdowns, one interception and 10 sacks through two games. He's been aided by second-year tailback Brian Robinson Jr., who is looking like a star in the making after amassing 146 yards and two scores on 37 carries thus far.
Factor in a defense that's currently 10th in yards allowed and 17th in points allowed, and this team could remain relevant if Howell continues his strong play.
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1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4 of 4
2023 Projected Win Total: 6.5
2023 Record: 2-0
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were projected to finish as one of the league's worst teams in 2023 in the wake of Tom Brady's retirement. With Baker Mayfield starting in his place, almost no one would have predicted that they'd beat both the Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears to open the campaign.
Mayfield has completed 69.1 percent of his passes for 490 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions thus far. Considering that he's never had higher than a 63.8 percent completion rate over an entire season—and that mark came in his rookie campaign—the Bucs are already getting a solid return on their one-year, $4 million contract with him.
It doesn't hurt that Mayfield is throwing to two of the NFL's top wideouts. Mike Evans has hauled in 12 catches for an eye-popping 237 yards and two touchdowns on the year, while Chris Godwin has 10 receptions on 14 targets for 109 yards. Rachaad White's first season as the Bucs' starting running back is also off to a strong start, as he has 152 yards from scrimmage and a score on his 41 touches.
Head coach Todd Bowles has Tampa's defense playing bend-but-don't-break football, having allowed 302.5 total yards per game but only 34 total points. Third-year edge-rusher Joe Tryon-Shoyinka leads the squad with two sacks, while linebacker Devin White and safety Ryan Neal have each tallied 14 tackles so far.
The Bucs will get their first real challenge of the season in Week 3 when the reigning NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles visit for a Monday Night Football affair.
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