In Search of Solutions for MLB's Biggest Messes
If this year has proved anything, it's that it's hardly impossible for Major League Baseball to change for the better.
The 2023 season is the first of what might be called MLB's "New Rules Era," and to merely say it's been a success is akin to calling Ted Williams a merely good hitter. Thanks to the pitch timer, the shift ban and bigger bases, hits and stolen bases are up and the average time of game is way down. Judging from this year's attendance figures, fans dig it.
So, what else needs fixing?
There are probably more than just seven good answers to this question, but seven is the number of topics we're about to discuss.
These cover problems that are all obvious, but not all of them also have obvious solutions. In some cases, modest proposals are the best anyone can do. In others, it's basically wishful thinking or bust.
There Has to Be a Better Way to Call Balls and Strikes
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The Problem: Human Umpires Remain, Well, Human
Truth be told, human umpires are actually pretty good at calling strikes.
Since 2008, the rates of both missed balls (i.e., strikes called outside the zone) and missed strikes (i.e., balls called inside the zone) are way down. Put together, umpires are getting ball and strike calls wrong only seven percent of the time in 2023.
Of course, that figure would be zero in an ideal world. And none of us can blame ourselves for thinking that the problem is worse than it is. The only thing more infuriating than a missed call is a missed call in a critical situation, which isn't exactly an uncommon occurrence.
The Solution: Replace Them with Robots!
Ke'Bryan Hayes is right. It is time for MLB to call up the robot umps.
The automated ball-strike system, as it's officially (albeit more boringly) called, has been thoroughly tested at Triple-A and at the Futures Game this year. It seems that the preferred use of it is not to call every pitch, but rather a challenge system that forces teams to be selective in the same way they must be with replay reviews.
Jayson Stark of The Athletic wrote in August about how there are still questions about the readiness of the ABS for The Show, but those don't concern fundamental flaws as much as kinks to iron out. That won't happen in time for 2024, but nobody is saying 2025 isn't happening.
There Has to Be a Better Way to Do Playoff Seeding
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The Problem: The System is Prone to Punishing Superior Teams
With 106 wins and a plus-269 run differential, the 2021 Los Angeles Dodgers took their place as one of the best clubs in the franchise's history.
Yet because they finished behind the 107-win San Francisco Giants in the National League West, the '21 Dodgers had to settle for a wild card and were thus only guaranteed one postseason game. It was the ultimate sign that MLB's postseason needed tweaking.
Though a big tweak indeed arrived by way of expansion to 12 teams in 2022, the Rays stand as proof that the system still isn't perfect. They have the second-best record in the American League at 92-69, yet are slated to be a No. 4 seed behind the 79-win Minnesota Twins.
The Solution: Simplify the System!
Going back to the '21 Dodgers, Dave Roberts offered a straightforward solution.
"I do like the format of the NBA," the manager said in August of that year. "The two best teams, in the sample of a major league season, should have the best chance of meeting in the postseason, and not just in the first round."
It wouldn't be hard for MLB to adopt NBA-style playoff seeding, in which the top teams in each league are seeded simply according to their regular-season winning percentages. This would arguably cheapen division titles, but one could also argue that MLB already took its first step down that road by cutting intra-division games via the balanced schedule.
There Has to Be a Better Way to Achieve Competitive Balance
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The Problem: The Gap Between the Best and Worst Teams Is Widening
As to how MLB might get more teams to contend for the playoffs, let's not forget that the league is only two years into a new collective bargaining agreement that notably includes anti-tanking measures.
Speaking of NBA-style systems, the biggest change was introducing a lottery for top draft picks instead of assigning them according to winning percentages from the prior year. As such, teams that would race to the bottom aren't guaranteed to get what they want.
It's too bad it's not working. Because even if the standard deviation in teams' winning percentages is on a downward trend, it's still up relative to the mid-2010s. Case in point, there was only a 34-win gap between the best and worst team in 2014. That gap is 50 wins wide in 2023.
The Solution: Tax Bad Teams!
You know what would be cool? If MLB took a cue from the European football leagues and introduced a system for promotion and relegation.
But since this will never happen, how about financial penalties for the worst teams instead?
Think of it as a counterbalance to how the best teams are rewarded, as making the playoffs brings not just glory but extra revenue. If bad teams knew it was going to cost them to finish with, say, 100 or more losses or a bottom-five record, maybe they'd be willing to put in more effort to avoid that fate.
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There Has to Be a Better Way to Achieve Payroll Parity
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The Problem: The Gap Between Big Spenders and Little Spenders Is Widening
Apropos of that last point, it's not always for lack of effort that bad years happen. Teams that can vouch include the New York Mets, San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Angels.
Generally speaking, though, there tends to be a strong link between payroll and winning. And the range between the biggest and smallest payrolls in the league is only getting wider.
Besides, even good teams can remain frustratingly resistant to growing payroll. That's been the M.O. of the Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians for a while now, and it sounds as if John Angelos wants the Baltimore Orioles to follow the same path.
The Solution: Reverse Luxury Tax!
Thinking a salary floor would solve this problem? So does MLB, which tried to pitch the MLB Players Association on a $100 million floor during the last round of CBA talks.
However, that pitch also involved a lowering of the luxury tax threshold for big spenders. Max Scherzer summarized what that meant: "If you get a floor, you get a cap."
Rather than a hard floor for a hard cap, how about a soft floor to go with the soft cap that the luxury tax basically is? The union actually pitched such an idea, with the idea being that there would be a payroll threshold that teams couldn't go below without having to pay taxes. If faced with a choice of having to pay anyway, maybe they'd give the money to players.
There Has to Be a Way for the A's to Leave Oakland on a High Note
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The Problem: The A's Are Bad and Cheap and Embarrassing
If there's a team that embodies the league's competitive imbalance, its payroll disparity and basically all things bad, it's the Oakland Athletics.
The A's have already lost 104 games and their $58.9 million payroll is the lowest in the league. All this at a time when owner John Fisher is trying, Major League-style, to escape Oakland for Las Vegas. The target year seems to be 2028.
There's probably no stopping the Vegas move, but what happens between now and then? To simply let the status quo fester would be terrible optics for MLB, not to mention further torture for Oakland fans and a lousy way to build anticipation in Las Vegas.
The Solution: Try Again and Try Better!
Unless MLB is going to unilaterally institute the previously proposed changes, it's on the A's to fix themselves. A cause for pessimism if there ever was one, to be sure.
If there's any cause for optimism, it's the building blocks the A's already have. Sluggers Zack Gelof, Ryan Noda and Shea Langeliers and speedster Esteury Ruiz are among them, with lefty Ken Waldichuk having recently joined the party.
Otherwise, the A's quietly outspent 12 teams in free agency last winter. The failure of that haul must not scare them off from trying again with a goal of scoring on low-risk, high-reward signings. For inspiration, they can look back on the 2012 club that beat all expectations with help from unexpected heroes like Bartolo Colon, Brandon Moss and Grant Balfour.
There Has to Be a Better Way for the Rockies to Win Games
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The Problem: The Rockies Are Cursed with Coors
Meanwhile in the National League, the misery the Colorado Rockies are feeling amid a 56-94 season is nothing new.
This is their 31st season since debuting in 1993, and they're 0-for-31 in pursuits of an NL West title. The Miami Marlins are likewise 0-for-31 in the NL East, but at least they have two World Series titles.
It's impossible to separate the Rockies' general struggle to win from their more specific struggle to win on the road. Since Coors Field opened in 1995, they have by far the largest gap between home and road winning percentages.
The Solution: Back to the Drawing Board!
Alas, the Coors Field problem is an elevation problem. The Rockies can try fancy hitting machines and whatever else they want, but nothing will ever erase the challenges of going back and forth from a base of 5,280 feet.
There's no reason, though, the Rockies must be so poorly constructed for Coors Field. It's the BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) capital of the baseball world, and thus a hypothetical haven for a team built on high-contact hitters and low-contact pitchers.
It's therefore boggles the mind that the Rockies have an offense and a pitching staff that both rank last in the NL in strikeout rate. Fixing these issues will be easier said than done, but the potential reward is worth it. Because of the new rules, any team that thrives in these areas wouldn't be a problem just at Coors Field.
There Has to Be a Way to Make Pitchers More Durable
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The Problem: Pitchers' Elbows Keep Breaking
Now more than ever, whether pitching can ever be safe is a good question.
One could have hoped that the pitch timer would force pitchers not to throw as hard as they can on every pitch, to the benefit of their elbows. Instead, the average fastball has ticked up to another new high of 93.3 mph and there's been an explosion of elbow injuries.
This is to say nothing of how many pitchers hurt their elbows before they even begin their pro careers. The specialization of youth sports is a factor, with several studies hinting at increased injury risk for young people who mainly play baseball in lieu of multiple sports.
The Solution: Continue the Research!
For what it's worth, MLB hasn't stood idly by as the specialization of youth sports has put more young players at risk of injury. The league's "Pitch Smart" guidelines for youth baseball players have been shown to reduce injuries if followed.
But whereas those are focused on pitch counts and rest days, what remains unclear is the relationship between velocity, elbow torque and injury risk. There's a breakthrough to be made there.
Either way, the holy grail is a means to assess the fatigue level and structural integrity of pitchers' elbows in real time. If the bad news is that the wearable tech that exists right now isn't wholly effective, the good news is that at least it's not science-fiction.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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