NBA Intel: Contract Extension Predictions for 2020 NBA Draft Class
As the 2023-24 NBA season nears, so does the extension deadline for the first-round picks of the 2020 draft class.
Some have already signed significant deals, including No. 1 pick Anthony Edwards, whose maximum contract could reach a projected $42.6 million for 2024-25 if he's named Most Valuable Player, Defensive Player of the Year or to one of the All-NBA Teams. Worst case, Edwards' new deal will start at roughly $35.5 million.
LaMelo Ball (No. 3) and Tyrese Haliburton (No. 12) signed similar deals with the Charlotte Hornets and Indiana Pacers, respectively. Desmond Bane (No. 30) can earn as much as $35.5 million but doesn't have that extra "max criteria" potential like Edwards, Ball and Haliburton. Isaiah Stewart II (No. 16) signed a more conservative $60-64 million extension with the Detroit Pistons.
But what about the other 25 players (26 if you include Chuma Okeke, who was drafted in 2019 but didn't sign with the Orlando Magic until a year later) taken in the first round of the 2020 NBA draft?
What will the market bear based on previous rookie-scale extensions as "comps" and how much will precedent, the new collective bargaining agreement and a looming new broadcast deal impact negotiations?
Negotiating Guidelines
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Teams and player agents often use "comps" when negotiating free agent/extension deals—looking closely at recent contracts to try and make their financial case.
Follow last year's trail of breadcrumbs with the Portland Trail Blazers and Anfernee Simons, who agreed on a four-year, $100 million deal. That set the market for RJ Barrett, who got a "better" deal from the New York Knicks in September at $107 million guaranteed (up to $120 million in incentives).
Tyler Herro got more than Barrett—$120-130 million from the Miami Heat in October, which was surpassed by Jordan Poole's $123-$140 million from the Golden State Warriors.
How the 2023 market evolves after the initial flurry in July remains to be seen. Some players are compensated for what they've already achieved, with hopes they'll continue to produce at that same level. But for many rookie-scale extensions signed after three years of service, teams may not know yet what they have—and some prices may be based more on potential than what's already been shown.
Case by case, some may prefer to wait another season for restricted free agency the following summer. That's where both sides need to research which competing franchises will have cap room, positional need and the nerve to issue an offer sheet—noting that few are given out each year (so far, just two have been made during the 2023 offseason: to Paul Reed Jr. and Matisse Thybulle, both of which were matched).
In the absence of cap room, the market may be the non-taxpayer mid-level exception, projected to be about $13 million next season—probably the benchmark that helped determine the amount for Stewart and the Pistons (at $15-16 million annually).
And some agents see the prospect of a new, massive broadcast deal and want to bake that future growth into their players' contracts. Unsurprisingly, teams are generally less inclined to agree with that logic.
One last note before breaking down the numbers: technically, a player's final year is part of an extension. For simplicity's sake, when a player adds on four additional years, it'll be referred to as a four-year extension (if even by the letter of the rules, it's actually considered a five-year deal).
James Wiseman (No. 2 Pick from 2020)
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James Wiseman underperformed with the Warriors, and while some of the issues were injury-related, arguably the more significant issue was fit.
After a trade to the Pistons, Wiseman got more of an opportunity and was relatively productive. The team, however, was very bad. Still, there is untapped potential, but will Detroit prioritize him with other bigs like Jalen Duren, Marvin Bagley III and Stewart?
From the panel of NBA sources: "No deal to be done. He has too much to prove unless he wants an extremely team-friendly extension. This one will wait."
Averages (24 games, 22 starts—45 and 22 overall): 25.2 minutes, 12.7 points, 8.1 rebounds, 0.7 assists—19.3, 10.0, 5.9, 0.7 overall
Closest comp: Jonathan Isaac's four-year, $69-80 million extension (15.5-17.9 percent of cap) would be a very generous comparison for Wiseman, but his numbers in Detroit aren't far from Issac's in Orlando. Isaac also had significant injury issues and many prior exclusions that made most of his deal non-guaranteed. Based on the percentages and a higher projected cap for 2024-25 ($142 million), Isaac's starting salary would translate to $22-$25.3 million, which reads like a non-starter for Detroit.
Expectation: The Pistons will wait to see if Wiseman can impact winning before paying him a significant salary.
Patrick Williams (No. 4 Pick from 2020)
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On paper, Patrick Williams is precisely the kind of player the Chicago Bulls need around DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine. He has good length and athleticism and is more of a natural role player than a primary scorer.
He hasn't quite reached his potential yet, but as a potential 3-and-D player, Williams doubled up his three-point attempts from 1.7 to 3.4 a game while maintaining an above-average efficiency (41.5 percent).
Williams is talented, but is Chicago ready to pay?
Averages (82 games, 65 starts): 28.3 minutes, 10.2 points, 4.0 rebounds, 1.2 assists
Closest comp: OG Anunoby started 68 games in his third year with the Toronto Raptors with similar production—leading to a four-year, $72 million extension (14.3 percent of cap), translating to a projected $20.3 million for 2024-25.
Expectation: That feels too rich for Chicago at this stage, but a compromise could work, like Rui Hachimura's $15.7 million with the Lakers (11.57 percent of cap—$16.4 million for 2024-25).
Isaac Okoro (No. 5 Pick from 2020)
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A concerning trend, Isaac Okoro's minutes dropped from 29.6 to 21.7 per game from his second to third year. He became a part-time starter and most of his numbers dropped (though his shooting percentages did improve).
The Cleveland Cavaliers need an impactful defensive presence that can space the floor at small forward, but that may not be Okoro long-term.
Averages (76 games, 46 starts): 21.7 minutes, 6.4 points, 2.5 rebounds, 1.1 assists
Closest comp: Nassir Little's $6.25 million starting salary (5.1 percent of cap, Trail Blazers) for a projected $7.2 million for 2024-25.
Expectation: Little took a team-friendly deal because he hadn't proved himself yet, but Portland still believed he was worth the investment (at the price). Do the Cavaliers feel the same with Okoro? Look for both sides to wait this one out.
Onyeka Okongwu (No. 6 Pick from 2020)
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Onyeka Okongwu seems vital to the Atlanta Hawks' rotation behind starting center Clint Capela. The team moved off John Collins' salary, which should clear some of the front-court logjam for Okongwu.
The Hawks have a lot already invested in players like Trae Young, Dejounte Murray, Bogdan Bogdanović, De'Andre Hunter and Capela. At the right price, the franchise could lock in Okongwu as well.
Averages (80 games, 18 starts): 23.1 minutes, 9.9 points, 7.2 rebounds, 1.0 assist
Closest comp: While their games are different, Okongwu plays a similar heavy-minute role off the bench to Kyle Kuzma (when with the Lakers through 2019-20). L.A. gave Kuzma an extension starting at $13 million (11.6 percent of the cap), which equates to $16.4 million for 2024-25.
Expectation: This one could happen before the deadline.
Killian Hayes (No. 7 Pick from 2020)
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Killian Hayes played well last season, taking on a more significant role with a season-ending injury (shin) to Cade Cunningham. But Cunningham is expected to return to his starting position this coming season. The team also needs significant minutes for Jaden Ivey and recently acquired two point guards, Monte Morris and Marcus Sasser (No. 25).
"If they're committed to Hayes, the moves they made this summer suggest otherwise," one former NBA executive said.
Averages (76 games, 56 starts): 28.3 minutes, 10.3 points, 2.9 rebounds, 6.2 assists
Closest comp: Markelle Fultz put up similar numbers for the Magic in 2019-20, signing a three-year extension starting at $16.5-$17.5 million (14.7-15.6 percent of the cap). He signed a short deal with only $2 million guaranteed in the third season.
Expectation: The Pistons pass, for now, on Hayes.
Obi Toppin (No. 8 Pick from 2020)
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Hopefully, Obi Toppin will get more of a consistent opportunity in Indiana. He didn't get enough time to develop in New York. The Pacers picked him up in trade for a couple of second-round picks.
Averages (67 games, five starts—with the Knicks): 15.7 minutes, 7.4 points, 2.8 rebounds, 1.0 assists
Closest comp: Toppin's stats don't comp to any player extended in the past few years. The closest is more situational. In the offseason, Luke Kennard, who didn't play much in his third year (injury-related), was acquired by the LA Clippers from the Pistons. LA extended the shooter before he played a single regular-season game with the franchise. But Kennard had a defined NBA skill, coming off a 15.8 points-per-game season while shooting 39.9 percent from three-point range. The Brooklyn Nets did the same with Landry Shamet after an offseason trade from the Clippers.
Expectation: Toppin could stick long-term in Indiana, but that decision probably won't come until next July.
Deni Avdija (No. 9 Pick from 2020)
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The Washington Wizards hired executive Michael Winger to run the franchise in May. He didn't draft Deni Avdija; new leadership often leads to roster upheaval. Winger has already made significant changes. It's unclear how quickly he'll invest in Avdija, who is still developing as a player.
With shooting such a premium in the NBA, Avdija's 29.7 percent from three-point range limits his appeal. An extension is premature.
Averages (76 games, 40 starts): 26.6 minutes, 9.2 points, 6.4 rebounds, 2.8 assists
Closest comp: Grayson Allen, who was a significantly better shooter than Avdija in 2020-21 (39.1 percent from three), got a two-year $17-$19.6 million deal (7.6-8.7 percent of cap) with the Milwaukee Bucks. That would translate to $10.7-$12.3 million in 2024-25, which is still higher than the Wizards are likely to spend.
Expectation: Wait for restricted free agency.
Devin Vassell (No. 11 Pick from 2020)
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Devin Vassell missed a couple of months with a knee injury, but the San Antonio Spurs were focused on the Victor Wembanyama lottery chase. Vassell is a talented scorer who could be a long-term piece for the Spurs.
The team has to start planning for a winning future now that it landed its prize in Wembanyama, but San Antonio has a lot of money to spend, and it's reasonable to think some of that goes to Vassell before the deadline.
Averages (38 games, 32 starts): 31.0 minutes, 18.5 points, 3.9 rebounds, 3.6 assists
Closest comp: The obvious comp is teammate Keldon Johnson, who extended with the Spurs last summer at $20-$21.5 million (16.2-17.4 percent of the cap). But Johnson's salary descends each year, which could be the kind of structure the team looks for with Vassell (which would be $23-$24.7 million starting salary, based on Johnson's percentages).
Expectation: The Spurs and Vassell should find a workable extension, but one that starts at or below $20 million and descends annually.
Kira Lewis Jr. (No. 13 Pick from 2020)
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Kira Lewis Jr. has yet to make an impact with the New Orleans Pelicans. Lewis suffered a significant knee injury in 20221, and the team discovered undrafted point guard Jose Alvardo in the interim.
This marriage may be nearing an end—at a minimum, an extension seems unlikely.
Averages (25 games, no starts): 9.4 minutes, 4.6 points, 1.3 rebounds, 0.9 assist
Closest comp: None.
Expectation: An extension would be a significant surprise.
Aaron Nesmith (No. 14 Pick from 2020)
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After two relatively-low minute seasons in Boston with the Celtics, Aaron Nesmith found a steady role with the Pacers last season. But how will recent draftees Jarace Walker (No. 8) and Ben Sheppard (No. 26) impact Nesmith's minutes?
Per The Athletic's Shams Charania, Indiana may trade shooter Buddy Hield, which could help thin some of the logjam on the wing. Historically, the Pacers like to lock in talent on longer, team-friendly deals. An extension with Nesmith, at the right price, could make sense.
Averages (73 games, 60 starts): 24.9 minutes, 10.1 points, 3.8 rebounds, 1.3 assists
Closest comp: Nesmith doesn't quite match exactly, but he's relatively close to Kuzma with the Lakers (different position, Nesmith started more games)—but their production was relatively close. Kuzma got $13 million from L.A. (11.6 percent of the cap) or $16.4 million in 2024-25.
Expectation: This one has some potential, though the Pacers may look to pay closer to what Kuzma got in dollars, not percent.
Cole Anthony (No. 15 Pick from 2020)
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Cole Anthony's second season was his best, averaging 16.3 points and 5.7 assists a game through 65 starts. But his role shrunk with Fultz getting healthy. The team also drafted Jalen Suggs in 2022 and Anthony Black in 2023, putting Anthony's future with the franchise in doubt.
The Magic may choose to keep all of their guards, but that seems unlikely, and Anthony may be the most expendable.
"I think they move Anthony, maybe even before the season. But I don't think they extend him," one player agent said.
Averages (60 games, four starts): 25.9 minutes, 13.0 points, 4.8 rebounds, 3.9 assists
Closest comp: Naturally, looking at what the Magic paid previously for a point guard makes sense. Fultz was almost a full-time starter and had more assists (5.1), but shot 26.7 percent from three-point range. Anthony is a steadier shooter at 36.4 percent. Fultz's $16.5-$17 million (14.7-15.6 percent of the cap) would mean $20.8-$22.1 million—and that doesn't make sense given the depth at that spot in Orlando.
Expectation: If the Magic execute a deal, Anthony will be extension-eligible until the start of the season. If so, another franchise might value what he brings enough for an extension. But he may be closer to Fultz's salary in dollars, not percent.
Chuma Okeke (No. 16 Pick from 2019)
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Okeke took an extra year to join the Magic, so while he's from the 2019 class, he's extension eligible with the group from 2020. After a promising sophomore season, Okeke's role has shrunk in Orlando. Additional roster moves (Anthony Black, Paolo Banchero, Joe Ingles, etc.) suggest Okeke isn't a priority.
Averages (27 games, eight starts): 19.2 minutes, 4.7 points, 3.6 rebounds, 1.2 assists
Closest comp: None
Expectation: No reason to anticipate an extension.
Aleksej Pokuševski (No. 17 Pick from 2020)
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The Oklahoma City Thunder list Aleksej Pokuševski at 7'0", 210 pounds—about 20 heavier than when he came in as a rookie. He has the height but may not have the frame. With Chet Holmgren healthy (after missing his rookie year with a foot injury), Jaylin Williams and others in the rotation, it's unclear if Pokuševski is a long-term fit in Oklahoma City.
Averages (34 games, 25 starts): 20.6 minutes, 8.1 points, 4.7 rebounds, 1.9 assists
Closest comp: None.
Expectation: Another for restricted free agency.
Josh Green (No. 18 Pick from 2020)
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After two nondescript seasons in Dallas, Josh Green emerged in his third year with the Mavericks as a relatively consistent shooter (40.2 percent from three on 2.8 attempts) and athletic wing.
The Mavericks invested in Kyrie Irving, Grant Williams, Richaun Holmes and others this offseason. This should limit the team's spending flexibility in free agency for at least a year or two. Keeping Green on an agreeable extension makes a lot of sense for Dallas.
Averages (60 games, 21 starts): 25.7 minutes, 9.1 points, 3.0 rebounds, 1.7 assists
Closest comp: The Nets gave Shamet a four-year, $42.5 million deal (with team-friendly non-guarantees in the third and fourth seasons) after he put up very similar numbers to Green in LA with the Clippers. Shamet's $9.5 million starting salary (7.7 percent of the cap) translates to $10.9 million in 2024-25.
Expectation: For Green to commit early to the Mavericks, he probably needs more than the projected non-taxpayer mid-level exception ($13 million). That might be workable for Dallas.
Saddiq Bey (No. 19 Pick from 2020)
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At the deadline, the Hawks gave up multiple second-rounders to acquire Saddiq Bey from the Pistons. The 24-year-old forward took on a bench role in Atlanta, shooting a career-best 40 percent from three-point range (on five attempts per game).
Given how much the team already has invested in its roster, the pending negotiation with Okongwu and the addition of recent draft picks like AJ Griffin, Jalen Johnson and Kobe Bufkin—it's not entirely clear who the franchise considers a priority. At that right number, Bey could be a long-term piece.
Averages (25 games, seven starts in Atlanta—77 and 37 overall): 25.2 minutes, 11.6 points, 4.8 rebounds, 1.4 assists—27.6, 13.8, 4.7, 1.5 overall
Closest comp: Another Kuzma comp, with Bey coming off the bench, providing double-digit scoring. Kuzma shot just 31.6 percent from deep before his extension with the Lakers—Bey can argue that he's the better floor spacer. Kuzma's $13 million (11.6 percent) would be $16.4 million in 2024-25.
Expectation: A $15 million starting figure for Bey could work, provided the Hawks have a clear plan with the depth chart.
Precious Achiuwa (No. 20 Pick from 2020)
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The Toronto Raptors are in flux with a new head coach (Darko Rajaković) and looming contract decisions with Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby. But the franchise just invested heavily in center Jakob Poeltl, which could impact Precious Achiuwa.
At 6'8", Achiuwa offers a different look than Poeltl (7'1"), and at the right price, the Raptors could try to lock in their big men core for the foreseeable future. But with so many pending decisions, Toronto may wait on Achiuwa until next summer.
Averages (55 games, 12 starts): 20.7 minutes, 9.2 points, 6.0 rebounds, 0.9 assists
Closest comp: Robert Williams III's $10.7-$12.1 million (8.7-9.75 percent of cap, Celtics) for a projected $12.3-$13.8 million.
Expectation: Roster uncertainty suggests the Raptors wait, but this one is worth watching.
Tyrese Maxey (No. 21 Pick from 2020)
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The Philadelphia 76ers are in a rare position where the team may have significant spending power next summer. The Sixers could have enough cap space to land at least one high-dollar target by letting James Harden (trade demand TBD) and Tobias Harris come off the books.
The upshot is that Tyrese Maxey may need to wait until July for a new contract. As a restricted free agent, he'll take up just $13 million in cap space—much less than he's projected to re-sign for with the team.
Players don't like to wait for their money. This could tax Philadelphia's relationship with the young guard, but a massive contract in 2024 could help assuage any ill feelings.
"Maxey doesn't have much say here. He doesn't have to like it, but this is how the system works," one executive said. "He'll get his money, eventually."
"Restricted free agency should have been taken out of the last CBA," one player agent said.
Averages (60 games, 41 starts): 33.6 minutes, 20.3 points, 2.9 rebounds, 3.5 assists
Closest comp: Herro's $27-29.5 million starting salary (19.85-21.32 percent of cap) for a projected $28.2-$30.3 million for 2024-25.
Expectation: The Sixers choose to wait but ultimately pay next summer.
Zeke Nnaji (No. 22 Pick from 2020)
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Zeke Nnaji is among the few players from the 2020 rookie class who can boast an NBA title. While he didn't play much during the postseason, Nnaji contributed in a small roll off the bench throughout the year.
Denver has a heavy investment in its championship core with Nikola Jokić, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon. The franchise may need to look for discounts around the margins, and it's not yet clear how committed the Nuggets are to Nnaji.
Averages (53 games, five starts): 13.7 minutes, 5.2 points, 2.6 rebounds, 0.3 assists
Closest comp: None.
Expectation: This one waits for restricted free agency.
Immanuel Quickley (No. 25 Pick from 2020)
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How will the Donte DiVincenzo signing impact Immanuel Quickley's future in New York with the Knicks? The backcourt is growing crowded with Jalen Brunson, Quentin Grimes, DiVincenzo and Quickley—and Grimes has another year before the team has to start thinking extension. Factor in minutes on the wing for Josh Hart and RJ Barrett, and someone will need to sacrifice.
"The Knicks are very deliberate with their money. I think they decide on Quickley down the road," a former executive said.
New York may still choose to commit long-term to Quickley, but that decision may not happen until the buzzer at the extension deadline.
Averages (81 games, 21 starts): 28.9 minutes, 14.9 points, 4.2 rebounds, 3.4 assists
Closest comp: Derrick White's $15.7 million starting salary (13.95 percent of cap, San Antonio Spurs) for a projected $19.8 million for 2024-25.
Expectation: This could go either way, leaning toward New York taking a conservative approach that leads to restricted free agency.
Payton Pritchard (No. 26 Pick from 2020)
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Payton Pritchard played just over 19 minutes a game as a rookie, but the Celtics added Derrick White and Malcolm Brogdon in subsequent seasons. Pritchard was not a significant factor, but that could change with Marcus Smart dealt to Memphis.
Boston tried to trade Brogdon to the Clippers, but after LA backed out, the Celtics have some damage control to work out with Brogdon. Pritchard could benefit once the dust settles.
Averages (48 games, three starts): 13.4 minutes, 5.6 points, 1.8 rebounds, 1.3 assists
Closest comp: Generously, Little's $6.25 million starting salary (4.59 percent of cap, Trail Blazers) for a projected $6.52 million for 2024-25.
Expectation: Don't put it past the Celtics to lock Pritchard down on a team-friendly number before the season.
Jaden McDaniels (No. 28 Pick from 2020)
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The Minnesota Timberwolves went all in to get Rudy Gobert, severely limiting the team's draft capital. The team maxed out Edwards, and Karl-Anthony Towns' extension doesn't fully kick in until 2024-25. While the franchise isn't as good as it needs to be, that shouldn't impact what the team pays Jaden McDaniels.
McDaniels is already a full-time starter, the designated defender against opponents' top wing scorers and a 39.8 percent three-point shooter. The Wolves may not have the means to replace that kind of talent, but the team's overall finances could lead to more of a protracted negotiation.
Averages (79 games, 79 starts): 30.6 minutes, 12.1 points, 3.9 rebounds, 1.9 assists
Closest comp: Mikal Bridges' $20.1 million starting salary (16.25 percent of cap, Phoenix Suns—since traded to the Nets) for a projected $23.1 million for 2024-25.
Expectation: Based on president of basketball operations Tim Connelly's track record from his time with the Nuggets, the Timberwolves reach a deal with McDaniels before the deadline.
Malachi Flynn (No. 29 Pick from 2020)
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After a steadier role as a rooking in 2020-21 (playing 19.7 minutes a game), Malachi Flynn fell out of coach Nick Nurse's go-to rotation. Now, Fred VanVleet is gone to the Houston Rockets (replaced by Dennis Schröder), and Nurse is with the 76ers. Flynn could have an opportunity this season to carve out a bigger role.
Based on track record, however, an extension seems unlikely.
Averages (53 games, two starts): 13.0 minutes, 4.6 points, 1.4 rebounds, 1.3 assists
Closest comp: None.
Expectation: Another for restricted free agency.
Other Notable Players
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The Suns gave up quickly on Jalen Smith (No. 10), declining his third-year option in 2021. Soon after, Phoenix sent Smith to the Pacers, where he ultimately re-signed as a free agent in July 2022.
The Utah Jazz acquired Leandro Bolmaro (No. 23) from the Timberwolves in the Rudy Gobert blockbuster last summer but chose to decline Bolmaro's third-year option. The team let him go after the trade deadline in February.
The Jazz also declined Udoka Azubuike's (No. 27) fourth-year option, letting him hit unrestricted free agency this summer. The 23-year-old center signed a two-way contract with the Suns in early August.
Finally, Denver traded RJ Hampton to the Magic in the 2021 Aaron Gordon deal. Orlando declined his fourth-year option, eventually waiving him in February 2023. Hampton resurfaced for a brief stretch with the Pistons, but neither he nor Bolmaro is currently under NBA contract.
Email Eric Pincus at eric.pincus@gmail.com and follow him on Twitter @EricPincus.
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