Ranking the NBA's 22 Best Prospects 22 and Under
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In the NBA, the future is often every bit as exciting as the present, if not more so. That feels as true right now as ever, given both the league's wealth of young talent and the nearly unprecedented buzz surrounding the top of the incoming draft class.
So, let's deep-dive into this batch of budding ballers by ranking the 22 best prospects who will be 22 and under by opening night based on a combination of established ability and future potential, attaching more weight to the latter than the former.
22. Onyeka Okongwu, C, Atlanta Hawks
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This is an aggressive ranking based on the career Okongwu has had to this point but a conservative one by where he could take his game moving forward. By Goldilocks logic, this feels like just the right place to put him.
Whenever Atlanta finds him a starting spot, he might immediately join the Defensive Player of the Year race. He is an elite shot-blocker (career 2.1 per 36 minutes) and mobile enough to blanket perimeter players on switches. On offense, he has mainly functioned as a finisher and glass-cleaner, but there are enough hints of ball-handling, vision and shooting touch to think he could eventually have a lot more in his bag.
Honorable mention: Jalen Duren, C, Detroit Pistons; Jaden Ivey, PG, Detroit Pistons; Jonathan Kuminga, PF, Golden State Warriors; Jeremy Sochan, PF, San Antonio Spurs; Ausar Thompson, SG/SG, Detroit Pistons
21. Alperen Şengün, C, Houston Rockets
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While no one truly mirrors the one-of-one talent of two-time MVP Nikola Jokić, Şengün can do a pretty convincing Joker impression. Between his footwork, vision, creativity and soft touch, the outline of a Jokić clone is clearly evident.
Now, if we were fully convinced about Şengün becoming Jokic 2.0, we'd slot the Rockets center higher up the list. But that's an unfair expectation for any 21-year-old, plus Şengün hasn't shown as much promise on the perimeter. He also needs to find his defensive niche, a process that took Jokić years to tackle.
20. Bennedict Mathurin, SG/SF, Indiana Pacers
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Mathurin fits the mold of a modern three-and-D wing. That job title grows more demanding by the season, since defense and spot-up shooting can only take players so far. Players need to have more off-the-dribble juice to really thrive, and Mathurin already checks that box. As a rookie (and in a reserve role), he produced top-50 point totals on isolations (101, tied for 46th) and drives (454, 32nd).
He's already a bucket, and that's without the shooting success his form suggests will inevitably come (43.4/32.3/82.8 slash line as a freshman). He needs to improve his playmaking and become more consistent on both ends, but he might be paving a path toward two-way stardom.
19. Jalen Green, SG, Houston Rockets
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The upcoming campaign will go a long way toward determining Green's ceiling. Gone are the days of stakes-free basketball in Space City. The Rockes didn't hire Ime Udoka and shower veteran free agents with cash for nothing. But gone, too, are the days this group played without a great decision-maker at point guard. Fred VanVleet's ability to orchestrate an offense should allow Green to focus on what he does best: score at will.
He can be a solid secondary playmaker, but he is programmed to put up points from anywhere. Few players can mach his blend of quickness and explosion, and his off-the-dribble shooting could be the kind of skill that requires constant watch from opposing defenses. His to-date struggles with efficiency and all things defense hurt his ranking, but the hope is a culture change in Houston will help buff out his weaknesses.
18. Amen Thompson, PG/SG, Houston Rockets
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If Thompson had a jump shot, he might challenge for a top-10 ranking. That's how potentially special the rest of his profile looks.
"It sounds crazy, but (Amen's) got a little LeBron in him, back in the day," an Eastern Conference executive told The Athletic's David Aldridge. "He's got the big-time body. Not quite as big, but, wow. Remember LeBron in high school; he couldn't shoot it, very athletic, he was very much a facilitator too."
Thompson is a 6'7" ball-handler and facilitator with top-one-percent athleticism and multi-position versatility on defense. He'd do wonders for his outlook by finding even a semi-reliable shot, but he is one of the few modern perimeter players who has a chance to reach stardom without one.
17. Jabari Smith Jr., PF, Houston Rockets
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The highest-ranked of all the young Rockets, Smith might offer the best combination of ceiling and floor. While he had his warts as a rookie, he still seems likely to at least make his mark as a high-end shot-blocker and 6'10" floor-spacer. He also has the fluidity and strength to cycle through defensive assignments of different sizes and play styles.
If this exercise was all about upside, Smith might trail the two teammates listed directly behind him. But the likelihood of success matters, and his current issues feel the most correctable. He could benefit from Fred VanVleet's arrival as much as anyone and perhaps even leap in such a way that Smith factors into this season's Most Improved Player award voting.
16. Walker Kessler, C, Utah Jazz
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Kessler may never be a needle-mover on offense, but he already ranks favorably among the Association's top stoppers. Last season, his first NBA go-round, he slotted 13th overall in Defensive RAPTOR, per FiveThirtyEight. He was fourth in average blocks (2.3) and 20th in defensive win shares (1.5).
He is the kind of interior anchor who swats a ton of shots but changes even more. His presence alone takes countless other attempts off the table, since players will make the business decision to not bother shooting if he's in the vicinity. He might struggle to grow his offensive game beyond screen-setting and finishing, but given what he does on defense, that's enough to justify this placement.
15. Shaedon Sharpe, SG/SF, Portland Trail Blazers
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Sharpe has see-it-and-you-still-might-not-believe-it bounce, the kind of hops that make everyone freeze to focus on him when he's heading to the basket. These are Vince Carter-levels of anti-gravity ups. That gives Sharpe a tool few (if any) other players can access. It also makes him a constant scoring threat on cuts, putbacks and lobs.
But he has more than bunnies. He's also an ignitable outside shooter who is comfortable launching on the move. He doesn't have a dizzying handle, though, and is essentially unseasoned as a defender and distributor. He is one of the bigger boom-or-bust prospects in basketball, and he'll probably make this ranking look silly in hindsight, though it's too early to tell how.
14. Brandon Miller, SF, Charlote Hornets
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Miller may not have any NBA tape yet, but he does possess a bunch of NBA traits. At 6'9", 200 pounds, he looks the part of a two-way wing, and his size-skill combo could be special. His off-the-bounce scoring range stretches out past the three-point arc, and his ambitious passing attempts hint at some high-level shot-creation possibly in his future.
Right now, the optimistic sketch of his career shows three-level scoring, secondary playmaking and multi-positional defense. But he has struggled at times to create separation with his handle and must bulk up to maximize his defensive versatility.
13. Tyrese Maxey, PG/SG, Philadelphia 76ers
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Maxey has less room to grow than most players on this list, though that's partly due to how high he has already elevated his game. The 22-year-old (23 by early November) followed a leap year in his second season with more improvements in his third, upping his scoring output to 20.3 points while pushing his three-point quantity (2.7 makes a night) and quality (43.4 percent) higher than ever.
His scoring could be special—a 25-point, 50/40/90-shooting season is within the realm of possibilities—and he could shore up other aspects of his game. With his sound-decision making, he could ramp up his passing, and with his athletic gifts, he could be a much more helpful presence on the defensive end.
12. Josh Giddey, PG, Oklhaoma City Thunder
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Only six players have ever spent their first two seasons amassing averages of 14 points, seven rebounds and six assists. Giddey, who hasn't turned 21 yet, is one of them.
The 6'8" floor general stuffs a stat sheet like few others can. He is perpetually probing for passing lanes, and his size allows him to rev up Oklahoma City's offensive engine with grab-and-go rebounds. There are long-term questions about his shooting, half-court scoring and defense, but he has an impressively small number of weaknesses for someone his age.
11. Franz Wagner, SF, Orlando Magic
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In two NBA seasons, Wagner might've bumped his long-term outlook up a dozen times. He came into the Association as a solid support piece, but he has wound up looking more like a rising star. He has more scoring punch than expected, and Orlando (smartly) keeps giving him more control of the offense.
On defense, he is already tremendous, pairing sharp instincts with smooth fluidity and the competitive desire to string multiple stops together. If he can take his three-ball from decent (career 35.8 percent) to dominant, he'll add several more stories to that perpetually climbing ceiling.
10. Scottie Barnes, PF, Toronto Raptors
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Had we run this exercise a year ago, Barnes might've slotted inside the top five. But after a frustrating 2022-23 season—for him individually and the Raptors as a whole—he'll have to settle for the No. 10 spot, at least until the hoops world gets more clarity on the type of offensive player he can be.
He offers exceptional versatility on defense (though his effort was lacking at times last season), and with his ball skills and processing, he can legitimately run point guard as a 6'8", 225-pounder. But shooting is a big worry, especially if he's not going to be primarily used on the ball.
9. Cade Cunningham, PG/SG, Detroit Pistons
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Cunningham effectively lost his sophomore season to a shin injury, so his ranking might suffer a pinch from being out of sight and out of mind. If nothing else, he was denied a chance to show much his game may have matured from a strong—though not spectacular—rookie season.
He needs to expand his offensive range (career 30.9 percent from deep), but his mechanics and success at the stripe (84.4) both suggest that's a when-not-if development waiting to happen. Once he makes that upgrade, he'll be all strengths and no discernible weaknesses, a possible perennial All-Star and face of the franchise.
8. Scoot Henderson, PG, Portland Trail Blazers
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Henderson's upside is enormous. It's the main reason you aren't hearing panic in the Pacific Northwest despite Damian Lillard's trade request. If anything, most Blazers backers seem eager to get the Scoot era started.
Henderson is a floor general in every sense, a tone-setting competitor who can pile up points and leverage that scoring threat to open things up for his teammates. His jumper is a work in progress, and he doesn't have a ton of size (6'2", 195 lbs), but most criticisms sound nitpicky when considering he's still only a teenager. He could be special.
7. Jalen Williams, SG/SF, Oklahoma City Thunder
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Williams launched up big boards during the leadup to he 2022 draft, and his ascension has been full-throttle ever since. He needed just a single season to make uber-exclusive statistical company, joining Magic Johnson as the only rookies to average 14 points, four rebounds and three assists while posting a 60-plus true shooting percentage.
Williams has that wise-beyond-his-years style where he can play at a controlled, methodical pace and still stay a step (or more) ahead of the defense. On the less glamorous end, he pairs that advanced feel with a sweeping 7'2" wingspan to become a defensive answer for just about any offensive puzzle. This NBA era is all about versatility, and Williams basically defines the term on both ends.
6. LaMelo Ball, PG, Charlote Hornets
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While Ball has yet to prove he can lead a winner, that failure falls more on the Hornets' shoulders than his. The risk-reward game he plays can work but only with the proper pieces around him. It's worth the effort to try assembling that supporting cast, because his talent could be transformational if properly cultivated.
How many players can mimic his combination of handles, vision, creativity and anywhere-anytime shooting? Maybe a handful? No, he doesn't offer much defensively, and yes, he can have some maddening moments on offense when he gets a little overly ambitious, but the end result is spectacular more often than not.
5. Chet Holmgren, PF/C, Oklahoma City Thunder
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This is all about projection, since a foot injury robbed Holmgren of his would-be rookie season, but a discussion of 22-and-under talent is almost exclusively about future growth, so the fact he hasn't suited up yet won't do too much damage. His upside is too towering to slot him any lower than this.
Injuries aside, he's helpful in even his worst-case scenario as a shot-blocking and three-point-splashing 7-footer. In his best-case, he uses his ball skills and shooting touch to become a three-level scorer and leans on his vision and feel to thrive as a secondary playmaker. He might be an elite defensive anchor who functions as a jumbo wing scorer on he offensive end.
4. Evan Mobley, PF/C, Cleveland Cavaliers
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Don't hold Mobley's struggles in this last postseason too much against him. The Cavs created less than perfect offensive conditions by pairing him with another non-shooter up front (Jarrett Allen), and they sometimes squeezed the spacing even further by slotting another non-shooter on the wings (Isaac Okoro).
Mobley could use more muscle, though he just earned an All-Defensive first-team honor without it. He'd improve the brightness of his long-term outlook by expanding his range, but his advanced passing might be an even more helpful tool. He makes stardom seem more probable than possible, as the do-it-all big might string together seasons in which he's competing for the Defensive Player of the Year award while contributing 20-plus points and five-plus assists.
3. Paolo Banchero, PF, Orlando Magic
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Banchero did everything you'd want a top pick to do. He broke in with a 27-point, nine-rebound, five-assist effort—the first 25/5/5 debut since LeBron James—and basically went wire-to-wire in the Rookie of the Year race after, eventually nabbing all but two first-place votes. When the curtains fell on his first campaign, he'd become only the ninth freshman ever to average 20 points, six rebounds and 3.5 assists.
That's the kind of season that might normally call for a champagne celebration, only the 20-year-old forward can't legally down an adult beverage until mid-November. He's a 6'10" bouncy and bruising forward who just so happens to have the handles and passing skills of a guard. If he ever makes serious strides with his outside shooting and defense, he might feature prominently in the MVP race.
2. Anthony Edwards, SG/SF, Minnesota Timberwolves
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Team USA may have failed to medal at the FIBA World Cup, but it still boasted a roster full of rising stars—most of whom are too old for these rankings. Yet, it was Edwards, who turned 22 in August, who emerged as he group's go-to option, pacing the team with 18.9 points in 26 minutes per outing while shooting 47.5 percent from the field.
"He's unquestionably the guy," Team USA coach Steve Kerr told reporters after the club's final exhibition. "You can see he knows it. But now the team knows it, and I think the fans see it. ... He genuinely believes he's the best player in the gym every single night. And he's such a dynamic young player. I think he's taking a leap."
Edwards has already engineered a few leaps in his career, most recently making his All-Star debut upon averaging 24.6 points, 5.8 rebounds and 4.4 assists in his third NBA season. He sometimes fails to fully engage on defense, and his shooting rates have room to grow, but all arrows point to annual All-NBA consideration and MVP votes (if not actual trophies) in his future.
1. Victor Wembanyama, PF, San Antonio Spurs
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If Wembanyama maxes out his potential, he might break the game of basketball.
If you want to know why a player who has yet to log a second of NBA action sits atop this list, that's the reason.
"It's hard to overemphasize how incredible Wembanyama's long-term potential is on both ends of the floor," The Athletic's Sam Vecenie wrote. "He will immediately be the biggest, longest player in the NBA, which allows him to change the geometry of the court defensively. He has great instincts and recovery ability on that end. But moreover, he is a legitimate shot creator at center or even at the four who can create off the bounce and knock down shots with ease off pull-ups or drives to the rim."
Wembanyama can block a shot on one end, lead the break and bury a step-back three on the other. His potential runs beyond being he sport's top two-way player, he could wind up being the league's best player on both offense and defense simultaneously. Yes, it's all hype for now, but there's a reason the basketball world is buzzing about his arrival in ways it hasn't since we all waited LeBron James two decades back.
Statistics courtesy of Basketball Reference and NBA.com.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @ZachBuckleyNBA.
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