NFL Odds Week 1: Betting Tips after Friday's Injury Reports and Practice News
Entering the first weekend of the 2023 NFL season, many of the Vegas lines look a bit different than they did a few days ago.
Friday injury reports have generated a little more clarity on some very pivotal player situations. Washington Commanders star receiver Terry McLaurin, for example, is set to be a full go after missing time with a turf-toe injury.
As we saw during Thursday night's game between the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs, the absence or presence of a key player can have a massive impact on how matchups unfold.
Here, we'll dive into a few of our best bets and lines to avoid following Friday's injury intel.
Check the latest lines at DraftKings.
Trust Washington -7 Versus Arizona
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I'm usually not a big fan of riding large lines in Week 1, but this is an incredibly juicy matchup.
The Washington Commanders are touchdown favorites at home against the Arizona Cardinals. The game shouldn't be that close.
While we don't know exactly what to expect from second-year quarterback Sam Howell just yet, the Commanders offense is loaded with playmakers like Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Curtis Samuel and Brian Robinson Jr.
McLaurin (toe) has been cleared to play, according to NFL Media's Ian Rapoport,
The Commanders defense, meanwhile, is scary good. Last year, Washington logged 43 sacks, ranked third in yards allowed, seventh in points allowed and eighth in defensive red-zone touchdown rate (51.9 percent, according to Pro Football Focus.
No defense was better than Washington's on third down, with opponents converting just 31.9 percent of their attempts.
The Cardinals appear set to start Joshua Dobbs at quarterback, and he only recently arrived in an August 24 trade with the Cleveland Browns. Arizona is a talent-starved team and have Marquise Brown and Zach Ertz both listed as questionable. Washington should cover easily.
Avoid the Bengals -2 Against the Browns
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Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow is now the highest-paid player in NFL history, and Cincinnati recently confirmed that he'll start on Sunday against the Cleveland Browns.
It's still hard to trust the Bengals, even with a mere -2 line, against Cleveland.
Burrow missed the entire preseason with a calf injury and has had limited reps with new left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. and the Bengals' new-look offensive line. Against a revamped Browns front that now features Myles Garrett, Za'Darius Smith, Dalvin Tomlinson and Shelby Harris, that's a problem.
While Cleveland safety Juan Thornhill is questionable with a calf ailment, standout cornerback Denzel Ward cleared concussion protocol on Friday, according to ESPN's Jake Trotter.
However, I can't advocate backing the Browns either. Cleveland has been notoriously bad in season-openers, and we don't know what to expect from Deshaun Watson, who flopped in his six games with the Browns in 2022.
Avoid the line entirely and target the under (47.5 points) instead.
Avoid the Bears-Packers Game and Its Tricky 1.5-Point Line
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The Chicago Bears massively upgraded their roster in the offseason, and third-year quarterback Justin Fields has the best supporting cast of his pro career.
The visiting Green Bay Packers, meanwhile, will be without second-year receiver Christian Watson, who was ruled out Friday with a hamstring injury.
This is, however, a game that could legitimately go either way. These two opponents know each other well, and Green Bay still has a fairly strong roster. The Packers may lack proven receivers, but Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon still form one of the best backfield duos in football.
Chicago should very much improved team, but it will take time for Fields to fully gel with new skill players like D.J. Moore, Robert Tonyan Jr. and D'Onta Foreman. The defense, while better on paper, was one of the league's worst in 2022 and will also take time to solidify.
Packers QB Jordan Love is the wild card here. If he proves to be an upgrade over the 2022 version of Aaron Rodgers, this could turn into a blowout win by Green Bay. If he struggles, it could be a rout in the opposite direction.
The safer wager here is to go with the over at 41.5 points. Neither defense is a true shutdown unit, and there will be enough breakaway threats for this to devolve into a shootout.
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Take the Giants and the 3.5 Points
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The Dallas Cowboys are 3.5-point road favorites heading into their matchup with the rival New York Giants. While Dallas may well pull out the win, it's hard to envision them winning by more than a field goal.
The Giants added star tight end Darren Waller to the injury report on Friday with a hamstring injury, which is potentially problematic. However, New York still has playmakers like Daniel Jones, Saquon Barkley and Isaiah Hodgins.
Expect New York to do just enough through the air while moving the ball on a Cowboys defense that ranked 22nd in rushing yards allowed last season.
Dallas, meanwhile, will be learning to move the ball without Dalton Schultz and Ezekiel Elliott—in a new, Mike McCarthy-coached offense.
This is set to be a tough, physical rivalry game under the bright lights of Sunday Night Football. I don't expect the Cowboys to win in blowout fashion in that sort of matchup, and the under (45.5 points) is also enticing here.
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