NFL Picks Week 1: Best Favorites to Bet Before Odds Change
Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season got off to a rousing start. The Detroit Lions knocked off the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs in a hotly contested battle that came down to the wire.
For those keeping track of such things, this means that the Vegas favorites are now 0-1 on the season. Backing Kansas City against a hungry Lions team was always risky—even more so with Chris Jones and Travis Kelce out of the lineup.
There are no sure things in football, of course, but here, we'll dive into three other favorites from the Week 1 slate who appear to be safer picks than Kansas City was. We'll dive into why these are enticing matchups and the early weekend lines that make them so.
Check the latest lines at DraftKings.
Baltimore Ravens -9.5 Against Houston Texans
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This is the biggest line of the week entering Saturday. While large lines can be tricky, especially early in the season, it feels appropriate.
The Baltimore Ravens were a playoff team in 2022 despite not having star quarterback Lamar Jackson for much of the season. They have a healthy Jackson now, along with new receiving options like Odell Beckham Jr. and Zay Flowers.
Beckham and tight end Mark Andrews being on the injury report is potentially problematic. However, it's the Ravens defense that makes this an attractive pick.
The Houston Texans had one of the league's most talent-starved rosters in 2022. They have a rookie quarterback in C.J. Stroud who will face an aggressive and multi-faceted Ravens defense led by coordinator Mike Macdonald.
Macdonald did an excellent job of disguising coverages and generating pressure last season, and his third-ranked scoring defense can give Stroud fits. With new Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken looking to establish a fresh passing attack, this game has true rout potential.
Washington Commanders -7 Against Arizona Cardinals
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This is another large line, and it's one worth jumping on before it gets any larger.
The Washington Commanders are heavy favorites against the Arizona Cardinals, and they should be. Washington featured a borderline elite defense in 2022—ranked third in yards allowed and seventh in points allowed—and should now have a capable quarterback in Sam Howell.
The Cardinals, meanwhile, lack offensive playmakers and are set to start the relatively inexperienced Joshua Dobbs at quarterback. The Cards haven't publicly tipped their hand, but Dobbs will be the guy, according to NFL Media's Ian Rapoport.
"The Cardinals are expected to have Joshua Dobbs as their Week 1 starting QB against the Washington Commanders, NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported, per sources informed of the situation," NFL.com's Kevin Patra wrote on Wednesday.
Dobbs has just two starts on his resume and only joined Arizona on August 24.
The Arizona defense is also a mess, ranking 31st in points allowed a year ago. Things aren't likely to go well for the Cardinals, which may be part of the plan. Arizona owns two 2024 first-round picks and may quietly be eyeing top QB prospects like Caleb Williams and Drake Maye.
Atlanta Falcons -3.5 Against Carolina Panthers
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Divisional games can be tough to predict, but there are a few reasons to back the home-favorite Atlanta Falcons in this matchup.
For one, the Falcons are loaded with offensive playmakers. With Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Tyler Allgeier and Bijan Robinson in the lineup, second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder shouldn't have to do too much to put points on the board.
The new-look Falcons defense also has promise, and new defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen has experience against several of the Carolina Panthers players.
Like Houston, Carolina will be starting a rookie quarterback in Bryce Young. While the Alabama product has a lot of upside, he'll be short on offensive options against Atlanta.
The Panthers have already ruled out wide receiver DJ Chark Jr., while Adam Thielen is questionable. That's going to make it very difficult for Carolina to keep pace on the scoreboard.
The Falcons are at home, are looking to establish themselves as NFC South contenders and will cover against their rebuilding rivals on Sunday.
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