NFL Futures Betting Odds 2023-24: Best Picks for Super Bowl 58 Entering Week 1
The 2023-24 NFL season has officially kicked off, and the opening kickoff was a good one: a nailbiter between the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs and the Detroit Lions, with the Lions squeaking out the win at 21-20.
If you're high on Detroit when it comes to Super Bowl futures, you're feeling pretty good after their Week 1 result. And if you, like most of the world, are high on Kansas City...one week isn't enough to change your assessment, but you are likely hoping Travis Kelce returns to the lineup sooner rather than later.
While the Lions and Chiefs are popular picks in this season's Super Bowl futures, there are a handful of other squads Vegas is high on to reach Super Bowl LVIII in...Vegas. Let's break down the best bets you can make as we head into the rest of the Week 1 action.
The following odds are current as of 8:20 p.m. ET on Thursday.
Kansas City Chiefs
1 of 3
Super Bowl odds: +600
Sure, the Chiefs may have lost their opening matchup against the Detroit Lions, despite being favored by 6.5 points in the opening spread. But with the news that tight end Travis Kelce would miss Thursday night's action with a knee injury, the Chiefs' advantage dropped down to 4.5.
It was a great bet to take. But it doesn't mean anyone needs to panic about the Chiefs just yet.
Before kickoff Thursday night, Kansas City had the highest odds to win Super Bowl LVIII, at +600, per DraftKings. It doesn't take much analysis to figure out why; Patrick Mahomes is arguably the best in the league at his position, and in his five seasons in Kansas City, the team has gone a stunning 5/5 when it comes to making the AFC Championship Game.
What's perhaps most incredible is that Mahomes earned MVP honors—leading the league with 5,250 passing yards and 41 touchdowns—without a star wideout on the roster. Kansas City traded Tyreek Hill last offseason; Mahomes didn't miss a beat. The team lost JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman; Mahomes still has plenty of targets, though this season is about seeing who will stand out. Thursday night showed there were plenty of kinks to iron out, with the pass-catchers' four drops being the second-most in a game Mahomes has started.
Missing Kelce and Chris Jones, who is holding out in the midst of contract talks with the Chiefs, made a huge difference on Thursday night; Jones takes this defense to another level.
Still, the odds of repeating as Super Bowl champions are near insurmountable; as you likely know, the Patriots were the last to do it, in Super Bowls XXXVIII and XXXIX, and only two teams have done it in the salary cap era (with Denver before New England). Ultimately, that trend doesn't have very much to do with the 2023-24 Kansas City Chiefs, but it does underscore just how difficult winning back to back Lombardi Trophies is.
Philadelphia Eagles
2 of 3
Super Bowl odds: +650
Though Patrick Mahomes took home MVP honors for the 2022-23 NFL season, there were those who thought Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts deserved the award, especially before his late-season shoulder injury.
Now, by all accounts heading into the 2023-24 season, Hurts is poised to be even better. (After all, this is a player who has demonstrated improvement in every subsequent season going back to college.)
Hurts has a roster loaded with weapons and, even though the team is facing a shake-up with the loss of offensive coordinator Shane Steichen to the Indianapolis Colts (and defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon to the Arizona Cardinals), general manager Howie Roseman, through astute drafting and savvy free-agency management, has ensured that head coach Nick Sirianni has the tools he needs to keep the engine running.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Eagles—who were the first NFL team to have four players tally 10-plus sacks (Haason Reddick, Josh Sweat, Javon Hargrave and Brandon Graham)—may have lost Hargrave, but the middle of the defensive line remains intact.
Ultimately, like the Chiefs, the Eagles' prospects are really centered on one player—their quarterback. Philadelphia went 14-1 in the regular season in games Hurts started. It's hard to argue with that.
Buffalo Bills
3 of 3
Super Bowl odds: +900
The 13-3 Buffalo Bills had a terrifc season in 2022-23, but given all the hype surrounding the team, it ultimately fell short of expectations: winning the Super Bowl.
Now, heading into 2023-24, the Bills have perhaps exactly what they need: a bit less hype and a bit more space to find their game and march toward Super Bowl LVIII on their own time.
Goodness knows Buffalo has had its fair share of being within striking distance of a championship and falling short, and the modern iteration of the franchise has the opportunity to flip that narrative this season. The team remains largely intact, and Josh Allen is becoming one of the best QBs in the game.
Unfortunately for Buffalo, and likely why the Bills aren't higher in the Super Bowl odds, the AFC generally, and the AFC East specifically, are a minefield. The New York Jets have loaded up with Aaron Rodgers, the Miami Dolphins have finally hit a stride with Tua Tagovailoa and the New England Patriots finally have a roadmap for the post–Tom Brady era.
But when it comes to talent, the Bills' window is certainly still wide open.
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