2023 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: 4-Round Simulation With Notable Picks
The start of the 2023 NFL season is only days away. When the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions face off on Thursday night, they'll also be ringing in the fantasy season. Time is running out for managers to prepare for fantasy drafts, but there's still time to get a little last-minute cramming.
Mock drafts can be an excellent tool for draft prep. By conducting a few mocks, managers can try out different strategies and get an idea of where specific players and positions are being valued.
Here, we'll dive into the first four rounds of a point-per-reception (PPR) mock conducted with FantasyPros' Mock Draft Simulator. We'll run through the selections and highlight a few that stand out in each round.
Round 1
1 of 4
1. Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
2. Ja'Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
3. Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs
4. Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
5. Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
6. Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams
7. Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
8. Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants
9. Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
10. Stefon Diggs, WR, Buffalo Bills
11. CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
12. Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans
This mock draft started out like many others we've run during the preseason, with Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase being the first two players off the board.
High-volume receivers like Jefferson and Chase are relatively "safe" choices for early Round 1, as they offer very little risk in terms of busting in a given week. Chase, for example, caught no fewer than four passes in a game last season.
Things get interesting with the third pick, though, as the simulator paired Team 3 with Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce. This is the highest I've seen Kelce go in a simulated draft in 2023, but it's far from an outlandish pick.
FantasyPros utilizes consensus rankings from a number of courses in its simulator, and you can bet that Kelce will go this high in quite a few real-world drafts.
The reality is that Kelce, who caught 110 passes for 1,338 yards and 12 touchdowns last season, should be valued like a high-volume wideout. Taking him early ensures that a manager will have an elite player in the lineup while leaving room for WRs and RBs with upside.
Round 2
2 of 4
1. Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions
2. Davante Adams, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
3. Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets
4. A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
5. Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
6. Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns
7. Calvin Ridley, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
8. Tony Pollard, RB, Dallas Cowboys
9. Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints
10. Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
11. Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins
12. Josh Jacobs, RB, Las Vegas Raiders
Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, who had 106 catches for 1,161 yards and six touchdowns last season, is a player with first-round potential. His numbers aren't on par with some of the first-round selections yet, but he's a third-year player who is still growing into the No. 1 receiver role.
St. Brown has room for growth, and he's a savvy selection at the top of Round 2.
The selection of Jonathan Taylor, however, is curious. The Indianapolis Colts star is coming off an injury-plagued season, is unhappy with his contract and will open the season on the PUP list—meaning he'll miss at least the first four games.
There's no guarantee of when Taylor will play, if he can return to pre-injury form or even if he'll suit up for Indianapolis all season.
The Colts have discussed trading Taylor, with the list of interested teams including the Green Bay Packers, according to ESPN's Stephen Holder. Indy's self-imposed August 29 deadline for trading Taylor has passed, but that doesn't mean the 24-year-old won't go back on the block before the trade deadline.
Joining a backfield that already features AJ Dillon and Aaron Jones would potentially tank Taylor's fantasy value. He represents a risky choice in the early second round and serves as an example of why mocks must be taken with a grain of salt.
Round 3
3 of 4
1. Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
2. Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England Patriots
3. DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
4. Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
5. Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
6. Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
7. Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens
8. Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
9. Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
10. Travis Etienne Jr., RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
11. Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
12. Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions
In you're actual draft, you're probably going to see quarterbacks start coming off the board in the late-second, early-third rounds. I've never been a strong advocate of this strategy.
Taking Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen early will solidify a key position, but the reality is that viable fantasy QBs can be found much later in drafts. Seattle Seahawks signal-caller Geno Smith, for example, has an average draft position (ADP) of only 117, according to FantasyPros.
In this mock, Team 1 grabbed Allen. By doing so, it left quality skill players like Rhamondre Stevenson, DeVonta Smith and Keenan Allen on the board. These are three players with top-10 scoring potential at their respective positions.
Smith has top-10 potential at his position.
It's also interesting that Allen continues to be valued as a third-round target. He's still the top target in a loaded Los Angeles Chargers lineup, and he could see an even bigger role this year.
"With [former coordinator Joe] Lombardi, I was stuck at the slot the whole time," Allen said, per Alex Insdorf of Chargers Wire. "I'm inside and outside now."
Allen can't be considered a true sleeper, but he's still being undervalued.
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Round 4
4 of 4
1. Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers
2. DK Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks
3. Kenneth Walker III, RB, Seattle Seahawks
4. T.J. Hockenson, TE, Minnesota Vikings
5. Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco 49ers
6. Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
7. Darren Waller, TE, New York Giants
8. Amari Cooper, WR, Cleveland Browns
9. Justin Fields, QB, Chicago Bears
10. D.J. Moore, WR, Chicago Bears
11. Dameon Pierce, RB, Houston Texans
12. J.K. Dobbins, RB, Baltimore Ravens
Round 4 is where you should start seeing committee running backs and second-tier No. 2 receivers come off the board.
Jones is the sort of committee back you should value here. He splits time with Dillon but has a ton of PPR upside. He finished the 2022 season with 59 catches and 1,516 scrimmage yards.
Seattle's Kenneth Walker III is a committee back I'm lower on. He shined as a rookie but wasn't a regular fixture in the passing game and will now split time with rookie Zach Charbonnet.
Remember, Walker wasn't a full-time player before Rashaad Penny suffered a season-ending injury. He's unlikely to be a high-volume back this year.
You should also see middle-tier No. 1 receivers going in the fourth round. There's value here. Amari Cooper, for example, caught 78 passes for 1,160 yards and nine touchdowns. He out-paced Tee Higgins, but Higgins is a more popular name and went a full round higher in our mock.
*Fantasy information and ADP via FantasyPros.
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