10 Trade Predictions for 2023-24 NBA Season
With NBA training camps opening leaguewide in less than a month, the 2023-24 season is fast approaching.
There are still some trade dilemmas (Damian Lillard, James Harden) that have yet to be resolved, and some situations across the league could lead to some additional movement as well.
The new collective bargaining agreement will assuredly have an impact on trade talks this year. Some new rules have already begun to take effect, and more restrictions will be in place next offseason.
Look for the following predictions to come through sometime between now and the 2024 trade deadline on Feb. 8.
Damian Lillard Will Be Traded Before the Regular Season Starts
1 of 10
It's now been over two months since Damian Lillard requested a trade out of Portland. However, we still appear to be no closer to a deal actually getting done.
In mid-August, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reported the Trail Blazers were showing "still showing no interest in doing a deal" with the Miami Heat, Lillard's preferred destination. While compensation appears to be the main sticking point, the lack of a tangible deadline likely hasn't helped, either.
The start of the regular season will change that.
The Blazers are well in their right to get the best possible return for their superstar guard. However, the human aspect of wanting to do right by Lillard and trade him before the season starts to give his family time to get settled is important, too.
It would do the Trail Blazers no good to bring a disgruntled Lillard to training camp and force the rest of their young core to deal with an added distraction, either.
The two sides should still be cordial enough to work something out before training camps open, whether it's a trade to the Heat or another destination.
The James Harden Saga Will Drag into the Season
2 of 10
While the Lillard-Trail Blazers story still could have a happy ending, there appears to be no such future for James Harden and the Philadelphia 76ers. Calling your boss a liar multiple times for the whole world to see will do that.
Sixers president Daryl Morey proved that he's comfortable being uncomfortable during the Ben Simmons trade saga two years ago. The Sixers also have enough talent without Harden (Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, Tobias Harris, P.J. Tucker, De'Anthony Melton, etc.) to stay afloat until they find a suitable trade offer for him.
Morey isn't likely to settle for a suboptimal deal. If the Los Angeles Clippers stumble out of the gate, that might increase what they're willing to offer. Injuries to playmakers on other teams could create a surprise trade partner as well.
For better or worse, Morey and Harden are both used to getting what they want. As a result, this trade saga may just be getting started.
Don't expect a deal to get done before the season starts unless Morey gets the big offer that he wants.
New CBA Trade Rules Will Lead to a Ton of Deadline Deals for Apron Teams
3 of 10
NBA teams over the first or second salary-cap apron will face strict new trade rules after the 2023-24 season. That should encourage a lot of deals to get done before these changes take effect.
The franchises that cross the second apron will find it extremely difficult to complete trades due to the following restrictions:
- Limited to 100 percent salary match (previously 125 percent, plus $100,000).
- Can't get a player back in return for one going out via sign-and-trade.
- Won't be able to send out cash in trades.
- Can't aggregate contracts in trades.
- Can't trade a first-round pick seven years in the future.
Because of these new rules, look for high-spending teams like the Golden State Warriors, Los Angeles Clippers, Phoenix Suns and Milwaukee Bucks to make their moves at the deadline before the restrictions set in.
A complete list of new rules can be found here, via B/R's Eric Pincus.
Hornets, Wizards and Blazers Have a Fire Sale
4 of 10
While there weren't many sellers to be found at the 2023 trade deadline, there could be a number of teams undergoing complete remodels in 2024.
The Portland Trail Blazers and Washington Wizards are obvious choices to start.
Whenever the Blazers trade Damian Lillard, they'll still have veterans like Jerami Grant and Jusuf Nurkić to ship off in a quest to land the No. 1 overall pick. Washington already traded Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porziņģis this summer and will have Kyle Kuzma, Tyus Jones, Danilo Gallinari, Delon Wright and other veterans to offer to contenders.
The Charlotte Hornets will begin the season with intentions of trying to compete with a healthy LaMelo Ball and the return of Miles Bridges, but this team still has a lot of holes and is trying to balance two timelines. The Hornets owe their 2024 lottery-protected first-round pick to the San Antonio Spurs, so they'll have an incentive to tank if they're outside of the playoff picture late in the season.
Look for the Hornets to eventually trade away veterans like Gordon Hayward, Terry Rozier and possibly even Bridges (an unrestricted free agent in 2024) while leaning heavily on Ball, Brandon Miller and Mark Williams.
These three rosters could change the most by the end of the year.
Raptors Keep Their Core Together
5 of 10
The Toronto Raptors are a bit of a mess at the moment. They're in danger of dipping into the luxury tax despite missing the playoffs last season and losing their starting point guard in free agency.
Both Pascal Siakam and O.G. Anunoby can become unrestricted free agents in 2024, which could cripple the Raptors even more. Despite that, Toronto has shown no signs of trading either player.
Bleacher Report's Chris Haynes reported that Siakam prefers to stay with the Raptors and that there was "growing sentiment" he would not re-sign with any team that trades for him. Siakam could sign an extension with Toronto now (four years and around $190 million) although if he makes an All-NBA team this upcoming season, the 29-year-old would become eligible for a five-year supermax deal that could be worth more than $300 million.
Anunoby is one of the premier defenders in the NBA. He could draw a substantial bidding war at the trade deadline from contenders looking for long, two-way wings.
ESPN's Zach Lowe previously reported that the Memphis Grizzlies and Indiana Pacers both offered three first-round picks for Anunoby at the 2023 trade deadline. If the Raptors turned down that kind of draft capital, they must be planning to keep and re-sign the 26-year-old.
Keeping this core together (along with Scottie Barnes and Jakob Poeltl) appears to be Toronto's plan, for better or worse.
DeMar DeRozan Joins a Championship Contender
6 of 10
DeMar DeRozan is showing no signs of slowing down heading into his 15th NBA season. During his past two seasons with the Chicago Bulls, he's averaged 26.2 points per game, made a pair of All-Star appearances and missed only 14 games.
But his future with the Bulls is far from settled as he enters the final season of his contract.
The Bulls re-signed Nikola Vučević and added Jevon Carter and Torrey Craig this offseason, which signals that they're still trying to win. However, they don't look that much better than the squad that finished 40-42 last season.
DeRozan should be a Bull to start the year, but he'll become one of the hottest trade targets on the market if Chicago gets off to another mediocre start. His $28.6 million expiring salary is one of the easiest All-Star contracts to trade for, and teams like the Los Angeles Lakers, Los Angeles Clippers, Milwaukee Bucks and Philadelphia 76ers make sense as potential landing spots.
The Bulls should want to get something for DeRozan rather than risk losing him for nothing in free agency next summer. That's why they'll eventually trade him to a team with championship aspirations before the deadline.
Suns Are Forced to Sell Low on Deandre Ayton
7 of 10
The Phoenix Suns chose to keep Deandre Ayton this summer, although that may have been more about the lack of an appealing offer rather than their belief in him becoming a strong fourth option.
Trading Ayton before next summer would come with a lot of advantages, as the Suns cemented themselves as a second-apron team by trading for Bradley Beal.
As of now, Phoenix can still trade Ayton and take 110 percent of his salary back in return from one or a combination of players. Next summer, that will go down to 100 percent, and the Suns will be unable to include cash or aggregate contracts in trades.
We aren't likely to see the best version of Ayton playing alongside Devin Booker, Kevin Durant and Beal, especially without Chris Paul. Ayton received 30.1 percent of his total passes from Paul last season, with Booker finishing a distant second at 12.6 percent.
Ayton's raw stats will suffer, and he'll eventually be traded for parts, with a rim-protecting center, wing defender and pass-first point guard all ranking at the top of Phoenix's wish list.
Pacers Are Surprise Buyers of the Deadline
8 of 10
After finishing 35-47 and missing the play-in tournament last year, expect the Indiana Pacers to be much better this season.
Tyrese Haliburton is already one of the best point guards in the NBA, and he's only gaining more experience playing on Team USA this summer. Myles Turner is coming off a career year, Bruce Brown brings championship experience from the Denver Nuggets, and Bennedict Mathurin should take a big leap in his second season.
This is also a sneaky-deep team that added Jarace Walker in the draft and Obi Toppin via a trade from the New York Knicks, solidifying what was a shaky power forward position.
With team governor Herb Simon set to turn 89 next month, expect the Pacers to hover around .500 for the first few months of the season before swinging some win-now trades at the trade deadline.
Rockets Shop Dillon Brooks
9 of 10
I've already explained why the Houston Rockets could grow to regret signing Dillon Brooks this summer, even if they needed a defensive-minded wing with playoff experience.
At some point, the Rockets will realize they made a mistake.
Brooks' four-year, $86 million contract looks bad now, but it will become an even bigger problem when Houston's young core come off their rookie deals. Jalen Green and Alperen Şengün will be eligible to sign extensions in 2024, and Jabari Smith Jr. and Tari Eason will follow suit in 2025.
New head coach Ime Udoka is going to grow tired of Brooks' self-imposed green light, especially with so many young mouths to feed on this roster.
The Rockets have a ton of young talent and were smart to get a veteran point guard in Fred VanVleet to bring out the best in them. However, don't be surprised if they look to get out of the Brooks contract as early as this year.
Mavs Will Go All-In for a Third Star
10 of 10
The Dallas Mavericks will probably be better this year thanks to a full training camp with Kyrie Irving and the offseason addition of Grant Williams. Still, after Irving and Luka Dončić, this roster drops off immensely.
Dallas finally has a collection of interesting young talent, but Josh Green might be the only one who's able to play meaningful postseason minutes as of now.
Instead, look for the ever-aggressive Mavericks to use Jaden Hardy, their 2027 first-round pick and other assets to go after a third star.
Karl-Anthony Towns would be a strong target with his floor-spacing ability, rebounding and passing chops. The Toronto Raptors and Chicago Bulls also have rosters worth keeping an eye on should their seasons start to go south.
Keeping Dončić happy will forever be the priority in Dallas. As of right now, this roster is far from championship-worthy. The Mavericks likely need a third star to push them toward the top of the West.
Whenever a star player becomes disgruntled, expect the Mavs to be in pursuit.
