Bold Predictions for Patriots' Individual Stat Leaders in 2023 NFL Season
The New England Patriots' newest offensive signing could make the biggest change to any pre-training camp statistical expectations.
Ezekiel Elliott was brought in as the complement to Rhamondre Stevenson after the Patriots let Damien Harris go in free agency and then signed and released James Robinson.
Elliott is not the feature running back he used to be, but he can still make an impact in short-yardage and red-zone situations.
That should terrify anyone who selected Stevenson in a fantasy football draft because the touchdown production could be split instead of one-sided now.
The Patriots' two other major offensive additions are expected to impact the Mac Jones-led offense right away.
JuJu Smith-Schuster comes in with the expectations of a No. 1 wide receiver, while Mike Gesicki could have a bounce-back season in the end zone after struggling for consistency with the Miami Dolphins in 2022.
Rushing Touchdowns: Ezekiel Elliott
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The Patriots had six players combined for 12 rushing touchdowns in 2022.
Stevenson led the team in rushing yards, but he only had five scoring rushes, two more than Harris had.
There is already precedent for Bill Belichick and his offensive coaches to split red-zone carries across a collection of running backs, and that will not change with Elliott in the fold.
Elliott has 68 career rushing touchdowns. He produced a double-digit scoring tally in three of the last four years, including a 12-touchdown campaign in 2022 with the Dallas Cowboys.
Elliott is a proven workhorse inside the opponent's 20-yard-line and the Patriots should take advantage of that skill set.
Stevenson should earn the bulk of the carries and lead the team in rushing yards, but he will struggle to be first in all of the rushing categories because of Elliott's red-zone success.
Receiving Touchdowns: Mike Gesicki
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Gesicki is poised for a bounce-back campaign inside a new offense.
The tight end took a back seat in the Miami Dolphins offense in Mike McDaniel's first season in charge. He was barely used for an entire game while Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle dominated the targets.
Gesicki hauled in five touchdown catches, but he left Miami with 52 receptions, his lowest total since his rookie season in 2018.
The Patriots are two years removed from having Hunter Henry lead the team in touchdown catches.
Henry regressed from nine scoring catches to two from 2021 to 2022, and his total may remain low with Gesicki inside the offense.
Gesicki has 18 career touchdown catches, and he is entering an offense that has not had a wide receiver with over 900 receiving yards or more than six touchdown catches in Mac Jones' time as starting quarterback.
Jones could spread the touchdowns around to Smith-Schuster, Kendrick Bourne and DeVante Parker, which opens up the space for Gesicki to lead the team in touchdown catches with six or seven scoring plays.
Receptions & Receiving Yards: JuJu Smith-Schuster
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Smith-Schuster's 101 receptions and 933 receiving yards with the Kansas City Chiefs in 2022 would have topped the Patriots' statistical charts.
It may not be a bold prediction that Smith-Schuster will lead the Patriots in receptions and receiving yards, but the high quantity in both statistics will be the surprise.
The former Pittsburgh Steelers wide out has over 100 receptions and 900 receiving yards in three of his six NFL seasons.
He has not been a touchdown machine lately, as he had more than three touchdown catches in one of his last four campaigns.
Smith-Schuster may not have the high volume of touchdowns again with Henry and Gesicki at tight end and Elliott earning red-zone touches on rushing plays.
Smith-Schuster can make an impact in other areas of the offense and become the first 1,000-yard receiver for Jones in the NFL.
That would be a huge improvement over what Jakobi Meyers brought as the No. 1 wide receiver in the last two seasons.
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