Fantasy Football 2023: Ranking Sleepers, Busts and Safest Players This Year
The start of the 2023 NFL season is less than two weeks away, and the anticipation is building.
Fans can't wait to see their favorite players and teams take the field in real, meaningful football games. When the Kansas City Chiefs host the Detroit Lions on September 7, it will also mark the official start of the fantasy season.
Many managers have already conducted their fantasy drafts and are currently playing the waiting game. For those wise enough to draft late—after the risk of preseason injuries has subsided—there's still a little time to prepare.
Below, you'll find a look at the three biggest keys to a successful draft—identifying "safe" players, avoiding busts and uncovering potential late-round sleepers. We'll rank the top 10 players in each category based on factors like past production, projected role and the latest average draft positions (ADP) from FantasyPros.
Safe Players
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1. Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs (ADP: 13)
2. Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills (18)
3. Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers (40)
4. Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings (2)
5. Ja'Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (4)
6. Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins (6)
7. Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns (9)
8. Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (32)
9. Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons (7)
10. Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs (5)
Let's be clear. Injuries can happen at any time, and no player is truly "safe" in fantasy.
High-floor quarterbacks who have proven themselves durable, however, top the list of relatively risk-free draft targets. Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Justin Herbert all fall into this category. Cincinnati Bengals signal-caller Joe Burrow is just a bit further behind.
Burrow is dealing with a calf injury, which could be problematic during the regular season. However, he's widely expected to be at 100 percent when the season opens.
"Knock on wood," Burrow said, per ESPN's Ben Baby, "I feel great."
High-volume receivers like Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase and Tyreek Hill are about as safe as managers will find at a skill position. The best receivers will miss the occasional game, but they will almost never bust in a week during which they are healthy.
Nick Chubb is an outlier at the running back position because he consistently produces and isn't especially injury-prone. Since becoming the Cleveland Browns' full-time starter in 2019, he's never missed more than four games in a season and has topped 1,200 scrimmage yards and scored at least eight touchdowns every year.
Atlanta Falcons rookie runner Bijan Robinson isn't proven at the pro level, but he was durable at Texas and is joining a committee with Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson. While a committee is usually bad news for a fantasy RB, Robinson is expected to see a lot of touches as a pass-catcher.
Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce 33, but he's shown no signs of slowing down and regularly produces as Mahomes' No. 1 target. He had no fewer than four receptions in a game last year.
Bust Candidates
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1. Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts (20)
2. Miles Sanders, RB, Carolina Panthers (50)
3. Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets (43)
4. Kenneth Walker III, RB, Seattle Seahawks (39)
5. Davante Adams, WR, Las Vegas Raiders (17)
6. Jerry Jeudy, WR, Denver Broncos (56)
7. Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Chargers (3)
8. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Tennessee Titans (49)
9. Christian Watson, WR, Green Bay Packers (60)
10. Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants (8)
When trying to identify potential busts, starting with highly-touted players entering new or uncertain situations is a great place to start.
Miles Sanders, for example, was a Pro Bowler a year ago. However, he also benefited from a powerful Philadelphia Eagles offensive line and the defensive attention Jalen Hurts commanded as a scramble. He'll have neither with the Carolina Panthers and will likely share carries with Chuba Hubbard.
Jonathan Taylor, meanwhile, is coming off a season-ending injury and has requested a trade. According to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, Taylor could wind up with the Miami Dolphins.
"Miami has made at least one offer, that was not accepted, and continues to engage the Colts in negotiations, according to a source," Jackson wrote.
There's no guarantee that Taylor will return to Pro Bowl form, even in Indy. If he lands in a Dolphins committee with Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr., the bust potential will be very real.
Seattle Seahawks back Kenneth Walker III looks to be an emerging player, but he didn't catch a ton of passes as a rookie (27), and he'll now share time with rookie Zach Charbonnet.
Will Austin Ekeler see the same every-down role he's had under new Los Angeles Chargers offensive coordinator Kellen Moore? It feels likely, but Moore was partial to a committee with the Dallas Cowboys. Jimmy Garoppolo doesn't frequently stretch the field, which could be an issue for Davante Adams, who will also share targets with new Raiders receiver JAkobi Meyers.
Players dealing with, coming off of and/or with notable injury histories always carry some bust potential. Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley were both healthy in 2022, but there's just no assurance that they stay healthy this season.
Potential Sleepers
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1. Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons (ADP: 65)
2. Kenneth Gainwell, RB, Philadelphia Eagles (160)
3. Jordan Addison, WR, Minnesota Vikings (88)
4. Desmond Ridder, QB, Atlanta Falcons (230)
5. Derek Carr, QB, Las Vegas Raiders (148)
6. Sam Howell, QB, Washington Commanders (195)
7. Calvin Ridley, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars (36)
8. Chigoziem Okonkwo, TE, Tennessee Titans (123)
9. Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts (106)
10. Tank Dell, WR, Houston Texans (201)
Look for a loaded Falcons offense to do big things in 2023, Desmond Ridders' first year as the full-time starting quarterback.
Ridder has enough playmakers—including Robinson, Patterson and star tight end Kyle Pitts—to out-perform his ADP by a large margin. The Cincinnati product isn't even going to be drafted in a lot of leagues, and he could be a starting option by midseason.
And if Ridder emerges, No. 1 Falcons receiver Drake London could explode. He had a solid 72-catch, 866-yard campaign as a rookie last year but was saddled with the inconsistent play of Marcus Mariota.
In four games with Ridder under center, London averaged just over six catches and 83 yards.
Washington Commanders quarterback Sam Howell is in a situation similar to that of Ridder. He has a tremendous receiving corps and could vastly out-pace his ADP. Derek Carr is in the same position with the New Orleans Saints, though he has the added benefit of being a four-time Pro Bowler.
Jacksonville Jaguars receiver Calvin Ridley isn't a true sleeper, but as Trevor Lawrence's No. 1 perimeter target, he's still being undervalued.
Rookies like Jordan Addison, Anthony Richardson and Tank Dell frequently carry the potential to out-perform their draft positioning, and Tennessee Titans tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo is poised for a breakout. Okonkwo was a viable spot starter as a rookie in 2022, and he should have a healthy Ryan Tannehill at quarterback—at least to start the season.
While the Philadelphia Eagles did add Rashaad Penny and D'Andre Swift this offseason, Kenneth Gainwell is poised to be the new committee leader.
According to The Athletic's Zach Berman, Gainwell has gotten the "steadiest work" in training camp.
Don't sleep on Gainwell.
*ADP from FantasyPros and current as of 8/25
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