Colts Must Be Willing to Budge on 1st-Round Ask amid Jonathan Taylor Trade Rumors

Though Indianapolis Colts star running back Jonathan Taylor initially reported to training camp earlier this month, the drama surrounding his immediate future is far from over.

Taylor was granted an excused absence shortly after reporting, and on Monday, the Colts granted him permission to seek a trade, according to NFL Media's Ian Rapoport.

The desire to play elsewhere seems to stem from the fact that Taylor is set to earn a modest $4.3 million in the final year of his rookie deal and enter that campaign without a long-term commitment from the Colts.

According to Spotrac, Taylor's projected market value as a free agent is in the $13 million-per-season range.

Of course, Taylor battled an ankle injury in 2022, underwent surgery in January and has been away from the team for the vast majority of the offseason. It's not hard to see why Indianapolis isn't willing to pay the 24-year-old top-of-the-market money just yet.

Sources told ESPN's Adam Schefter, that the Colts do want a top-of-the-market return for Taylor.

"The Colts will be seeking significant trade compensation for Taylor, according to separate sources. The team is looking for a first-round draft pick or a collection of picks that equates to one, the sources said," ESPN's Stephen Holder wrote on Monday.

If Indianapolis would prefer moving Taylor to dealing with a disgruntled this season and potentially losing him in 2024 for nothing, they have to be willing to back off of that first-round asking price. The Colts simply aren't getting it.

There are myriad reasons why teams aren't rushing to surrender first-round compensation for Taylor. The injury and subsequent recovery are part of it—and reports that Taylor denied Indy's request to report early for medical evaluation should be concerning for potential suitors.

"Taylor viewed the request warily, according to sources," Holder wrote on August 3. "He believed it was part of an effort to pressure him to return to the field for the start of camp, despite his stance that he needed more time to recover."

Dating back to college, Taylor has also seen an extensive workload that could lead to longevity issues. He logged 926 carries in three seasons at Wisconsin and another 756 in three seasons in Indianapolis.

The fact that Taylor will presumably want a new contract upon arriving at his next home is also problematic. He might find a desperate and cap-flush team willing to pay that $13 million annual estimate on the open market, though in today's depressed RB market, it's a stretch.

Dalvin Cook only landed a one-year, $7 million deal from the New York Jets.

A team isn't committing to that figure this late in the offseason and giving Indy its desired trade package. Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated spoke to multiple league executives to gauge Taylor's true trade value:

"So what's Taylor worth to a team, if a big contract is a prerequisite (the money you'd have to give up absolutely affects his trade value since he's in a contract year)? I asked a handful of executives from teams unattached to the situation. ...All those estimates are in the same general area—a Day 2 pick, or the equivalent of one. And a couple of these guys emphasized that's presuming he checks out medically."

The Colts must be willing to accept any reasonable offer that comes within the next week. Rosters must be trimmed to 53 players on August 29, and that's the day on which Indianapolis must decide to either activate Taylor or place him on the active/PUP list—and doing the latter would ensure that he misses the first four games of the season.

Holding out for an offer that isn't coming would be foolish considering that Taylor is an impending free agent, isn't guaranteed to return to 2021 form and isn't even guaranteed to play an entire season. If Taylor gets onto the field and struggles, his trade value will only further decline ahead of the trade deadline.

Of course, all of this is assuming that general manager Chris Ballard is truly willing to trade Taylor. Letting the 2021 rushing champ and his representatives speak to other teams may simply be a play to show Taylor what his value really is.

In today's market, Taylor probably isn't worth $13 million annually. At this point in his playing career, he's certainly not worth a first-round draft selection. Taylor may not be willing to accept that, but the Colts had better be.