Jonathan Taylor Trade Rumors: NFL Execs Predict Colts RB's Value in Potential Deal

The Indianapolis Colts do not appear likely to land a first-round pick if they trade star running back Jonathan Taylor.

Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated spoke to 10 NFL front-office executives, none of whom expected the Colts to land anything better than a Day 2 selection for Taylor.

The Colts have given permission to Taylor to seek a trade but are "looking for a first-round draft pick or a collection of picks that equates to one," according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. Taylor has been disenchanted with the team over a lack of progress in contract talks and has largely been absent from training camp while rehabbing an injured ankle and dealing with a personal matter.

While Taylor is a superstar when healthy, his continued absence from Colts practice and desire for a new contract depresses his market—and that's without mentioning the general lack of willingness to invest in running backs leaguewide. No back landed a multiyear contract worth more than $6.3 million this offseason.

There are only four running backs (Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones and Nick Chubb) who make more than $10 million annually and have multiple years remaining on their contract. Kamara and Jones will almost certainly not see their massive base salaries for 2024 and will be forced to take a pay cut or hit the open market. The statuses of Chubb and McCaffrey will likely be dependent on their health this season.

Taylor is due just $4.3 million in base salary for the 2023 season, the final year of his rookie contract. His willingness to make a fuss while under contract makes it almost impossible for any team to trade for him without having a long-term deal in place. Any team that trades for Taylor with a potential plan of franchising him in the offseason would be setting themselves up for a near-guaranteed holdout.

It's hard to fault either side in the standoff. Data continually shows running backs begin slowing down when they reach their mid-late 20s and usually peak in the early portion of their career—right when they're under cost-controlled rookie contracts. While there are some exceptions, it's exceedingly rare for a massive second running back contract to work out.

Running backs, meanwhile, see their bodies being used at an early age without getting to reap much financial reward. In that sense, it's completely fair for players like Taylor to use leverage while they still have it.