Making the Case for and Against Potential No. 1 Picks in 2023 Fantasy Football Drafts
In fantasy football, draft day is like Christmas. And there's nothing quite like finding out you'll be the first person who gets to unwrap the first present.
Of course, there's pressure that comes along with having the first overall pick. If you have the first pick in Round 1, it means you don't get another selection until the back end of Round 2. Sure, from there on you get two picks in a row, but then comes a long gap—and a lot can happen in those gaps.
That long wait between Pick No. 1 and Pick No. 24 (in a 12-team fantasy league) also jacks up the pressure to get that first pick right. To select a difference-maker—a high-ceiling option capable of anchoring your team.
Whiff on that first pick, and there could be trouble. You can't win a league on draft day, but you can lose it.
To help those fantasy managers wracking their brains about who to make the first name off the board, we have gathered here all the leading candidates to be the first overall pick. We've made the case for drafting that player. And for considering someone else.
We've armed you with information to help you make the best possible decision at 1.01.
But when the big day comes, that decision will still be yours to make.
Unless otherwise noted, fantasy scoring and target data courtesy of FFToday.
Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
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The Case For Jefferson
In terms of average draft position at FantasyPros, Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson is the No. 1 overall pick. And it's not hard to see why so many drafters are making that decision.
Over his first three professional seasons, all Jefferson has done is produce. He's had at least 88 receptions, 1,400 receiving yards and seven touchdowns all three years. Every season, Jefferson's reception and yardage totals have increased, with the former LSU standout posting a mind-boggling 128 catches for 1,809 yards and eight scores on the way to finishing as the No. 1 overall receiver last year.
The lowest PPR finish that Jefferson has posted in his career is WR7 in his rookie year. No wide receiver in the league was targeted more than Jefferson in 2022, and provided he stays healthy, Jefferson will no doubt be among the most targeted players again in 2023.
Jefferson's floor is the ceiling for a lot of high-end wideouts. Of all the potential No. 1 picks listed here, Jefferson is the safest bet.
The Case Against Jefferson
Frankly, it's not easy to make a case against Jefferson. But as Michael Fabiano wrote for Sports Illustrated, before Jefferson and Tyreek Hill of the Miami Dolphins became the ninth and 10th wideouts of the Super Bowl era to post an 1,700-yard season, the first eight all experienced at least some measure of regression the following year.
"Let's look at the final numbers from six of the eight wideouts in our research," he wrote. "I'm excluding (Cooper) Kupp and (Michael) Thomas, because both players missed eight or more games the season after their 1,700-plus yards campaign. The average decline in yards among the rest is 495.2 total receiving yards, or 23.9 yards and 4.8 PPR points per game."
In other words, Jefferson could indeed be mortal. It can also be argued that wide receiver is a much deeper position in fantasy than running back.
But all told, Jefferson is the safest bet of 2023 as the No. 1 overall pick.
Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
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The Case For McCaffrey
McCaffrey wasn't the No. 1 running back in fantasy football last year in terms of PPR points. That honor belonged to Austin Ekeler of the Los Angeles Chargers, who we will be discussing shortly.
However, McCaffrey was runner-up, which isn't bad for a guy who switched teams midseason.
In news that should surprise exactly no one, McCaffrey shined in Kyle Shanahan's offense once joining the San Francisco 49ers. And with a full offseason in the Bay Area under his belt, RotoBaller's Brant Henson was making the argument for McCaffrey was the 1.01 while the dust was still settling on 2022.
"It has been over 10 years since a running back not named Christian McCaffrey has had back-to-back top-10 finishes in PPR at the position," he said. "McCaffrey will have a full season in the best offense he has played in his career in 2023."
There's also the matter of McCaffrey's potential ceiling—in 2019, McCaffrey eclipsed 1,000 rushing yards, 1,000 receiving yards, 100 receptions and finished the year with almost 150 more PPR points than the No. 2 fantasy back.
You read that right.
Now, it's unlikely that McCaffrey will see the 403 touches it took him to post those historic numbers that year. But it's a reminder that he's capable of being more than just the No. 1 fantasy back.
He could be the No. 1 fantasy back by a mile.
The Case Against McCaffrey
There are a few reasons taking McCaffrey first overall might be unwise. The first applies to every player at his position in this article—running backs (as a whole) have a higher bust rate than their counterparts at wide receiver.
That higher bust rate is largely because running backs become injured more often than wideouts. And McCaffrey is no exception. After that monstrous 2019 campaign, McCaffrey proceeded to miss a whopping 23 games in 2020 and 2021 before rebounding to play in all 17 games last year.
Part of the reason for that rebound is that the Niners managed McCaffrey's workload, mixing in Elijah Mitchell liberally in the backfield. It's a wise move by the 49ers from an NFL perspective, but capping McCaffrey's touches could (in theory) also cap his fantasy ceiling.
Still, if you're going to rock it old school and draft a running back first, "CMC" is probably the way to go.
Ja'Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
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The Case For Chase
In the eyes of most fantasy pundits, Justin Jefferson is fantasy's No. 1 receiver. But that opinion is not unanimous—Dalton Del Don of Yahoo Sports believes that honor goes to Ja'Marr Chase of the Cincinnati Bengals.
In fact, Del Don thinks Chase should be chosen first overall—and he recently laid out his rationale for that belief.
"Chase is my No. 1 fantasy player entering 2023. He leads the NFL in yards per route run against man coverage since entering the league despite playing through a hip injury last season. Chase has also scored just three fewer touchdowns than the aforementioned Jefferson while playing in 21 fewer games! He's tied to Burrow as opposed to Kirk Cousins, who got 7.1 YPA last year (Jordan Addison provides more target competition as well). Imagine if Jefferson had to play outdoors like Chase.
"Meanwhile, Christian McCaffrey is a greater injury risk and saw a dramatic decrease in usage (24.1 opportunities vs. 16.4) when Elijah Mitchell was healthy in San Francisco."
Those points are all valid. It's not a reach to say that Chase is every bit as talented as Jefferson. He plays with a better quarterback than Jefferson. And he and Joe Burrow share a connection that dates all the way back to their time at LSU.
Drafting Chase ahead of Jefferson may be a bit contrarian. But it's not kooky.
The Case Against Chase
Some will point to the hip injury that cost Chase five games last year as reason enough to take Jefferson over Chase. But the biggest argument against Chase is the talent around him.
Del Don mentioned the target competition that the arrival of Addison brings for Jefferson in Minnesota. But that's nothing compared to what Chase faces in Cincinnati. Tee Higgins is a bona fide star receiver in his own right who saw 109 targets in 16 games last year. Tyler Boyd has two 1,000-yard seasons of his own on his NFL resume.
The Bengals have the best wideout trio in the NFL—and all three are going to see their share of looks. It's great for Cincinnati, but it could cap Chase's fantasy upside.
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Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
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The Case For Ekeler
Last year about this time, Ekeler told TMZ Sports that he was "betting on myself" and drafting himself first overall in fantasy drafts.
That bet paid off. Ekeler topped 1,600 total yards, scored a gaudy 18 touchdowns and finished as fantasy's No. 1 back.
It was Ekeler's second consecutive massive season. And for Jason Katz of Pro Football Network, it puts the 28-year-old in the mix for being the first player drafted in 2023.
"If you're not making McCaffrey the top RB off the board, then your guy has to be Austin Ekeler. The former UDFA has taken his game to the next level over the past two seasons. Ekeler's fantasy production has been remarkably reliable. In 2021, he averaged 21.5 ppg (RB2 overall) and 21.9 ppg in 2022 (RB1).
"If you want to take Ekeler over McCaffrey, I certainly won't argue it. Ekeler plays in an elite offense with one of the best young quarterbacks in the league in Justin Herbert. His target share was 18.9% last season, second in the NFL. Ekeler also has the goal-line role, resulting in many touchdowns."
Ekeler's 38 total touchdowns over the last two years leads the NFL. And there's no reason to think he won't be a huge part of the Chargers offense again in 2023.
The Case Against Ekeler
Ekeler's value is obviously much higher in PPR leagues than in standard scoring formats—he has hauled in 177 passes over the past two years, including 107 in 2022. But that last number is a problem. So are the 38 touchdowns.
Because both numbers scream regression.
Full disclosure—this analyst said something similar after Ekeler scored 20 times in 2021. Those sorts of touchdown numbers aren't easy to duplicate, and Ekeler pulling that off deserves recognition. But doing it three times in a row? That would be almost unprecedented.
Ekeler has hit the age (28) when many running backs start to show signs of decline. A healthy Keenan Allen and Mike Williams and the arrival of rookie wideout Quentin Johnston could mean a drop in target share.
There are multiple factors pointing toward a step backward for Ekeler in 2023—to the point it's more likely he finishes outside the top five than repeats his RB1 finish of a year ago.
Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams
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The Case For Kupp
For many fantasy managers, the No. 1 overall pick in fantasy drafts is about getting the top wide receiver available. After an injury-marred 2022 season, the list of people who believe Cooper Kupp of the Los Angeles Rams is that guy isn't long.
However, as Chris Towers of CBS Sports wrote, the fantasy community may be underselling Kupp in 2023.
"No wide receiver in the NFL has been anywhere near as good as Kupp over the past two seasons. He's played 28 games where both he and Matthew Stafford were healthy over the past two seasons, and he averaged 26.1 PPR points per game in those 28 games.
"What might be even more impressive is that he's failed to score a touchdown in eight of those 28 games and is still averaging 19.3 PPR points per game in those games; for context, Jefferson had nine games just last season where he didn't score a touchdown, and he averaged 14.2 points per game in them. Before leaving Week 10 with what turned out to be a season-ending ankle injury, Kupp was on pace for 153 catches, 1,728 yards, and 13 touchdowns, good for 25.1 PPR points per game."
Simply put, after winning the "triple crown" in 2021 and blowing every other fantasy wideout out of the water, Kupp was on a similarly ridiculous pace last year. He should be among the most targeted wideouts in the NFL in 2023. And the team he plays for will likely be playing catch-up with regularity.
Catch-up means throwing the ball.
The Case Against Kupp
Kupp was indeed wildly productive when healthy in 2022. But the ankle injury that ended his season can't be ignored. Neither can the fact that he celebrated his 30th birthday in June, making him significantly older than Jefferson and Chase.
The larger concern is the health of his quarterback. Matthew Stafford has been a full participant at Rams camp, but like Kupp, Stafford missed a chunk of the 2022 season. And 35-year-old quarterbacks coming off a spinal cord contusion tend to make fantasy managers nervous—because if Stafford goes down, Kupp is cooked.
Kupp is admittedly a riskier play than Chase and Jefferson. But there's a real possibility he finishes as fantasy's highest-scoring wideout if he and Stafford stay healthy.
Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns
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The Case For Chubb
I can hear the comments now: "Wait. Chubb isn't the No. 3 running back in ADP. Or No. 4. What is he doing here?"
Chubb is here because I have personally participated in a draft in which he was the first overall pick—and no one in the draft room laughed even a little.
Chubb is coming off career highs in carries (302) and rushing yards (1,525) on the way to a sixth-place finish in PPR points among running backs. And Andy Behrens of Yahoo Sports thinks that the best may be yet to come.
"Let's open with the fact that Nick Chubb is the best pure runner in the NFL. He's never averaged fewer than 5.0 YPC in any season and the man always finishes near the top of the leaderboard in missed tackles (83 last year) and breakaway runs. He's genuinely as good as it gets.
"Chubb played all 17 games last season, finishing fourth in the league in touches and third in carries. There are zero red flags here in terms of health, age or performance. The only valid criticism of Chubb is that he's had only a limited receiving role over the course of his Browns career. However, all signs point to him playing substantially more in passing situations this year, largely because the team's backfield depth chart is full of bad ideas. Chubb is set to deliver a league-winning, golden-ticket, OPOY-type season in 2023. For me, he's much closer to RB1 overall than RB3."
To be clear, if Chubb posts similar rushing numbers as last year and ups his passing-game usage into the 40-45-catch range, he will be in the overall RB1 conversation.
And the overall RB1 is worth the 1.01.
The Case Against Chubb
Some will point to Chubb's location in the ADP pecking order as case enough to call this a bad idea. If the likes of Saquon Barkley of the Giants and Bijan Robinson of the Atlanta Falcons are coming off the board ahead of him, how can you draft Chubb first overall?
That's easy—the whole point to having the 1.01 is getting your guy. You get the privilege of selecting any player you want. And Chubb's ADP of 13th overall is a mirage—the only leagues I've seen him make it out of the first round in are superflex and 2QB formats.
The real case against Chubb is the uncertainty of that passing-game usage. For what it's worth, this analyst agrees with Behrens. It's not like Chubb can't catch. The Browns just haven't thrown to him much. But we don't know with certainty that he'll get a sizable bump in receptions.
And without them, he won't live up to being the first pick.
Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs
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The Case For Kelce
Making a tight end the first overall pick could be a bridge too far for some fantasy drafters. But winning in fantasy is about building edges at positions—advantages over opponents.
And there isn't a player in the league who offers a bigger advantage over every other player at his position than Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce.
Last year, Kelce played his lowest snap percentage (80 percent) since 2014. Despite that, he set career highs in targets (152), receptions (110) and touchdowns (12). His 1,338 yards were the second-most of his career. With 316.3 PPR fantasy points, Kelce produced one of the best fantasy seasons a tight end has ever had.
Those 300-plus points also destroyed every other tight end in the NFL. Last year, Kelce outscored the No. 2 tight end (T.J. Hockenson of the Minnesota Vikings) by 102.9 PPR points. That's over six fantasy points per game. He outpaced the No. 5 tight end (Jacksonville's Evan Engram) by 141.4 PPR points (over eight PPR points per game). The gap between Kelce and the No. 10 tight end (Cleveland's David Njoku) was that much bigger—172.3 PPR points (over 10 points per game).
Kelce is the unquestioned No. 1 option in the NFL's most potent offense. Barring injury, there's no reason to think he can't back up last year's production.
The Case Against Kelce
The "barring injury" part is a legitimate concern. Kelce has been incredibly durable throughout his career, missing just three games since his rookie season. But he's also going to turn 34 during the 2023 season, and at some point, age catches up to everyone.
However, the biggest issue with drafting Kelce first overall is likely strategic. If you take a tight end with the first overall pick, that means waiting to draft a wide receiver or running back until the final pick of the second round. It creates a situation where unless you are confident in finding value at those positions in the middle rounds, the advantage you gain at tight end could be erased by a deficiency at another position.
However, if you're a fan of "Zero RB" and want to start off your draft with a selection that will turn some heads, Kelce is a viable target at 1.01.
Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on Twitter at @IDPSharks.
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