Predicting 3 Overlooked Fantasy Football Stars in 2023
Not everyone has completed their fantasy football drafts ahead of the 2023 season yet, but enough people have rostered their teams that data like average draft position (ADP) is starting to come into clearer focus.
ADP is one of the best tools we have to determine fantasy sleepers. If you're playing in a 12-team league and each team rosters 15 players, an ADP of more than 180 means that given player isn't going to be rostered.
Depending on whether your league keeps five or six bench spots, a player drafted at 120 or higher is likely going to your bench.
Heading into the season, there are plenty of candidates, mainly at the Flex positions, you should head into your draft knowing are being undervalued so far this fantasy season. They are good enough to start with an ADP low enough that you'll be able to use a position that would otherwise be meant to fill your bench.
Let's take a closer look at some of those players. All projected point totals are in points-per-reception (PPR) scoring.
Elijah Moore, WR, Cleveland Browns
1 of 3
ADP: 115.7
Position rank: WR48
2023 projections: 44.3 rec, 601.1 rec yds, 3.3 rec TDs, 127.8 pts
At an ADP of 115.7 Elijah Moore is making it onto a roster in a standard 12-team league...but just barely. At WR 48, he's occupying the Flex spot or, at best, WR3.
Fantasy managers are likely wary of Moore after his outing last season, his sophomore year in the league. Granted, his quarterback situation with the New York Jets was nothing to write home about, but Moore wasn't able to make the most of the few opportunities he was granted; in nine games, playing at least 70% of snaps, Moore had a target share of 13.2%, zero end zone targets, and a 14% target per route run rate.
This year, however, will be different. Moore is in Cleveland now, which has retooled its offense to feature more downfield passing and more designed runs, catering to quarterback Deshaun Watson. Sure, the Browns ranked 22nd in passing offense last year; Watson was also suspended for 11 games. Moore should have a nice situation in Cleveland, and the outlook is promising enough that he's worth one of your final draft selections.
Deuce Vaughn, RB, Dallas Cowboys
2 of 3
ADP: 176.3
Position rank: RB59
2023 projections: 65.9 rush, 223.4 rush yds, 1.3 rush TDs, 10.9 rec, 89.2 rec yds, 0.5 rec TDs, 51.2 pts
When you take a look at Deuce Vaughn's projections for the upcoming season, his ADP of 176.3 makes perfect sense. Fantasy managers are seeing him as a bench depth option...if he's even getting drafted at all.
But don't be so quick to write Vaughn off this season. Projecting rookie performance in the NFL is an incredibly difficult task. Looking back to college, Vaughn played lights-out, with more than 4,800 yards from scrimmage and 43 touchdowns in three years at Kansas State.
Vaughn's role presently is to spell No. 1 rusher Tony Pollard, but since the start of the preseason, the hype surrounding him has been growing. In his NFL debut, against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Vaughn carried the ball eight times for 50 yards (including a long of 26) and a touchdown, also bringing in 3-of-3 receptions.
If you happen to play in a keeper or dynasty league, drafting Vaughn is a no-brainer. Even in redraft leagues, he's certainly worth a late pick.
DJ Chark Jr., WR, Carolina Panthers
3 of 3
ADP: 180
Position rank: WR64
2023 projections: 46.7 rec, 725.6 rec yds, 3.9 rec TDs, 142.4 pts
We'll just put it out there right now: a player expected to bring in 725 receiving yards going undrafted in fantasy leagues to start the season is pretty out there.
Sure, DJ Chark Jr. will get scooped up by someone on waivers, likely early in the season. But wouldn't you rather use a late-round bench selection on him instead of rolling the dice?
Chark should benefit from the retooled offense coach Frank Reich has put together this year to play to rookie Bryce Young's strengths. Currently, Chark is slotted in as a starting wideout on the Panthers' depth chart, alongside Adam Thielen and Jonathan Mingo. While he may not win the target share competition, he's certainly a go-to big-play option for Young.
Fantasy managers will be wary of Chark given his injury history; he's never played a full season in his five-year NFL career. When he's been healthy, however, as he mostly was in 2019, he's shown up big time, posting more than 1,000 yards in 15 games that season and earning a Pro Bowl nod.
Looking to more recent outings, Chark had 502 yards in 11 games with the Detroit Lions last season. While his 1,000-yard seasons may be in the rearview mirror, 725 is certianly nothing to sneeze at and worthy of a late flier in your draft.
ADP, position rank and 2023 projections via FantasyPros
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