4 Realistic Outcomes for Ugly James Harden-Philadelphia 76ers Saga
The Philadelphia 76ers are midway through another offseason with one of their top players demanding a trade. In 2021, it was a messy divorce with Ben Simmons. The summer of 2023 is all about James Harden.
But there's a key difference this time: The NBA and NBPA just ratified a new collective bargaining agreement that specifically contains language inspired by Simmons to try to prevent players from holding out and forcing trades.
Those rules will be tested as the Sixers try to navigate a complex, difficult situation starting with Harden calling out the team's president of basketball operations, Daryl Morey, with direct, straightforward language.
Harden is clearly determined to get out of Philly. But can—or should—Morey and the Sixers acquiesce to Harden's demands?
Nobody Commits To Harden, He Stays Put
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So far, there's been minimal to no buzz that teams like the Chicago Bulls, Dallas Mavericks, Miami Heat and New York Knicks are interested in Harden. The Las Angeles Clippers have been the only team that made some level of sense as a trade partner.
On Saturday, ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reported that the Sixers "have ended trade talks involving [Harden]," noting that the team found "no traction" on a potential deal with the Clippers—Harden's reported desired destination.
The Clippers would need to send out at least $32.4 million to match Harden's salary (or $37.3 million if he doesn't waive his 15 percent trade kicker).
If the Sixers prioritize cap room in 2024, L.A. has plenty of veterans on expiring deals, including Marcus Morris Sr., Nicolas Batum and Robert Covington, to make the salary-matching math work. But that's sounding more and more like a moot point.
Other suitors need to consider Harden's will. There's little point in trading for a player on an expiring contract who doesn't want to be there. Harden already forced his way out from the Houston Rockets to the Brooklyn Nets to the Sixers.
Why pay Philadelphia to be the next team on that list?
His representatives can't actively tell teams he won't play for them (that's also against the rules), but Harden clearly knows how to make his desires known to the public.
If he tries to limit the list to one team, and it's a single negotiation between L.A. and Philadelphia, what leverage do the Sixers have to get more out of the Clippers?
Adding third or even fourth teams could change the parameters some, but the existing stalemate makes a lot of sense given Harden's age, contract and willingness to push his agenda.
Harden Poisons Sixers Relationship with Embiid, Forcing Philly's Hand
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After the debacle with Simmons, which included threats that he wouldn't attend training camp, per Keith Pompey of the Philadelphia Inquirer, the NBA added new rules to try and police player/team disputes.
Paraphrasing (a pre-existing) clause in the CBA: If a player in the last year of their contract withholds services for more than 30 days after the start of the season, they will not be a free agent the following offseason. The player cannot negotiate a contract with any other team (local or international). That limbo stays in place for as long as, in this case, the Sixers decide.
Additionally, new language states that any player who "publicly expresses a desire to be traded to another team shall be subject to a fine [up to $150,000] and/or a suspension."
While a fine would be small relative to Harden's salary (0.4 percent), a suspension could range from roughly $248,000-$389,000 per day, depending on the length and triggering event (a trade demand is technically cheaper than refusing to play).
Star players have demanded trades for almost as long as the league has existed. (Look up how Wilt Chamberlain and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar ended up with the Los Angeles Lakers.) To an extent, there may be no real way to prevent it.
The rules will prevent Harden from no-showing entirely, but he can make life unpleasant for the franchise, potentially poisoning the well with star center Joel Embiid.
Harden's goal would be to preserve his Bird rights by forcing a trade to a new team. Still, his leverage may be a willingness to go to free agency next July, provided he doesn't trigger the more extreme punishment by holding out for more than 30 days.
If that takes down the Sixers' season in the process, so be it.
Harden has no choice but to show up at some point in Philadelphia, but he may have a "lingering injury" that limits his availability.
Sixers Take the Cap-Space Route and Settle for Pennies on the Dollar
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Harden doesn't appear close to being done testing the Sixers' resolve.
At some point, "a decent return" for Harden could be better than wasting a year of Joel Embiid's prime, fresh off his first Most Valuable Player award-winning season. Losing Harden for nothing may not sound like a viable plan, but that depends entirely on what's being offered. Perhaps shorter-term commitments make sense for Philadelphia.
The Sixers may prefer to go the cap-space route by clearing their books of almost anyone but Tyrese Maxey and Embiid.
With Tobias Harris ($39.3 million) and Harden coming off the books, Philadelphia could approach $58 million in spending power. That assumes the franchise keeps Paul Reed, gets out of Tucker ($11.5 million player option) and waits to pay Maxey as a restricted free agent next July.
That's presumably what Morey is measuring when evaluating trade offers: Is the return better than what he can do with tremendous financial flexibility in 2024?
Morey hinted at that path on a radio interview with 97.5 The Fanatic's Anthony Gargano (h/t Bryan Toporek of Liberty Ballers), saying, "What we're attempting to do is have the best team possible this year, but also have the ability that, if we get into a next-season situation, to be a very unique team with the most cap room of a team that's as good as us."
That's a dangerous game, potentially alienating Embiid, who is signed through 2026-27 (with a player option on the final season). But Embiid could be the next player demanding his way out of Philadelphia.
Maxey probably wouldn't be thrilled to play another season without a long-term financial commitment when several of his draft classmates—including Anthony Edwards, Tyrese Haliburton, Desmond Bane—signed nine-figure extensions this summer.
Harden Gets Traded, Re-Signs With New Team Next Summer
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It's illegal for teams to make promises to players on future contracts, but teams tend to skirt the rules—just not in writing.
When Harden re-signed with the 76ers last July on a two-year, $68.6 million contract, he took a lower starting salary ($33 million) than his available max ($46.5 million). That gave the Sixers enough space under the salary-cap apron to sign P.J. Tucker and Danuel House Jr.
Whether Morey promised it or not, multiple sources indicated Harden was under the impression he would opt out and re-sign with Philadelphia on a max deal this summer.
But since such promises are non-binding (if one was indeed made), it apparently became clear to Harden that he and the Sixers were not on the same page. Instead of exploring an unfavorable free-agent market (no genuine contenders with cap space), Harden chose to pick up his $35.6 million player option "to work together on a trade out of Philadelphia," per Shams Charania, John Hollinger and William Guillory of The Athletic.
Harden also has a 15 percent trade kicker in his deal, worth $5.3 million if he's dealt before opening night (prorating down by about $31,000 per day once the season begins). He can waive that bonus; if not, it's the Sixers' obligation to pay.
While he isn't extension-eligible, Harden would keep his Bird rights if he gets traded, allowing his new team to re-sign him next July to anything up to a maximum salary.
Expect those particulars to be worked out before a trade—though that would also be technically illegal and non-binding. With that said, teams and players usually honor verbal agreements that they aren't supposed to make.
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