2023 NFL Predictions: Fantasy's Underrated Stars and Duds at Every Position
The first week of the 2023 NFL preseason is in the books, and fans are one step closer to real, meaningful football.
While preseason results don't matter, the player performances do, especially for fantasy football enthusiasts. Fantasy managers can find value in tracking player health, projected roles and position battles.
Information is a critical tool for fantasy drafts because uncovering under-the-radar stars and avoiding busts are two quick ways to forge a successful roster. Here, we'll dive into some of the latest intel and discuss one potential sleeper and one potential bust for each key offensive position.
Quarterback
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Under-the-Radar Star: Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints
It can be hard to predict how quarterbacks will fare with new rosters and in new situations. With the Las Vegas Raiders in 2022, Derek Carr was a serviceable fantasy starter, finishing with 3,522 passing yards and 24 touchdowns in 15 games.
Can Carr, a four-time Pro Bowler, be as efficient with the New Orleans Saints? Preseason performances must be taken with a grain of salt, but the 32-year-old sure looked good against the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday.
Carr only saw limited action but was an efficient 6-of-8 for 70 yards with a touchdown. He'll have a strong receiving corps in New Orleans—headlined by Chris Olave, Michael Thomas and rookie A.T. Perry, another preseason standout—and could be even more prolific than he was in Las Vegas.
Yet, Carr is only the 23rd-ranked quarterback, according to FantasyPros' average draft position (ADP). He shouldn't be discounted as a late-round starting option.
Bust: Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns
Managers must be expecting a return to Pro Bowl form from Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson, as he's ranked ninth in average draft position. Anyone viewing Watson as a top-10 fantasy quarterback, however, should do so with extreme caution.
In six games with the Browns last season, Watson was beyond underwhelming. He averaged less than 184 passing yards and 30 rushing yards while throwing seven touchdowns and five interceptions.
While Watson should be more effective after another full offseason in Cleveland, his upside is limited. The Browns are still likely to feature a run-based offense behind Nick Chubb, and their receiving corps may not be at full strength early in the season.
Elijah Moore suffered a rib injury on Friday, and it's unclear how quickly he'll be back on the field.
"We'll see," head coach Kevin Stefanski said about Moore practicing this week, per Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com.
Running Back
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Under-the-Radar Star: Deuce Vaughn, Dallas Cowboys
Again, the preseason can be deceiving. However, Dallas Cowboys rookie running back Deuce Vaughn showcased skills on Saturday that should translate well to the regular season.
The shifty but undersized (5'5", 179 lbs) showed just how difficult he is to tackle both in traffic and in space. With a low center of gravity and tremendous footwork, Vaughn is difficult to corral and can turn one missed tackle into a huge play.
Vaughn racked up 50 rushing yards and a touchdown to go with three catches against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Now, Tony Pollard is still the start in Dallas, and Vaughn is going to play a complementary role. However, he has enough point-per-reception (PPR) upside to be a viable flex option in deeper leagues. As RB65, Vaughn is flying firmly under the radar.
Bust: Miles Sanders, Carolina Panthers
With the Philadelphia Eagles in 2022, running back Miles Sanders was a star. He amassed 1,269 rushing yards, 78 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns. That production is likely behind his ranking as RB20.
However, it's worth noting that Sanders played behind a tremendous Eagles offensive line, something he won't have with the Carolina Panthers. He also benefited from the attention that dual-threat quarterback Jalen Hurts consistently commands.
While rookie first overall pick Bryce Young has some wiggle in his game, the 5'10", 204-pound signal-caller isn't going to threaten with designed runs. That will allow opposing defenses to focus on Sanders in running situations.
We're not going to overreact to Young's quiet debut (4-of-6 for 21 yards), but Carolina's poor offensive line play against the New York Jets (five sacks allowed) is a legitimate concern.
Expect Sanders to take a major step back in terms of fantasy production this season.
Wide Receiver
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Under-the-Radar Star: D.J. Moore, Chicago Bears
With this selection, the term "under the radar" is relative. Chicago Bears wideout D.J. Moore is not an unknown commodity, and he was a regular fantasy standout with the Panthers.
However, Moore is being undervalued now that he's with the Chicago Bears. This is largely because quarterback Justin Fields was underwhelming as a passer in 2022, as was Chicago's passing game as a whole.
Both appeared worlds better against the Tennessee Titans on Saturday. Fields was an efficient 3-of-3 for 129 yards and two touchdowns, while Chicago tallied 237 passing yards on the day.
Moore was spectacular in limited action, blazing to the end zone on his one reception for a 62-yard touchdown.
Though Moore had a down year in 2022, as the Panthers struggled at quarterback, he should be back to Pro Bowl form this season. He's being vastly underrated as WR23, and managers should expect him to out-produce higher-ranked receivers like Keenan Allen, Amari Cooper and Jerry Jeudy.
Bust: Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos
Jeudy isn't a bad receiver by any means, but he's been saddled by an inefficient Denver Broncos offense. He had a career year in 2022 but still only finished with 67 catches, 972 yards and six touchdowns.
As WR21, Jeudy appears to be getting some run as a potential breakout candidate. The arrival of new head coach Sean Payton in Denver is likely the driving force behind that.
Payton is widely expected to "fix" quarterback Russell Wilson, who had the worst season of his career under Nathaniel Hackett last year. The problem is that while Payton may help, Wilson simply doesn't look like the same quarterback he was with the Seattle Seahawks.
Wilson's stat line in the preseason opener (7-of-13 for 93 yards and a touchdown) was encouraging, but he seemed extremely hesitant to push the ball down the field.
Several times against the Arizona Cardinals, Wilson had a receiver open on a deep or intermediate route but opted for a shorter attempt instead. Whether he's truly lost the ability to throw the long ball or doesn't trust Denver's inconsistent offensive line, it's going to limit Jeudy's breakout potential.
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Tight End
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Under-the-Radar Star: Chigoziem Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans
We didn't see many of the Titans starters in their preseason opener, and tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo was among those who sat.
However, Okonkwo is a player to watch heading into fantasy drafts because he was one of Tennessee's most reliable receiving options a year ago. He finished his rookie campaign with 32 receptions for 450 yards and three touchdowns.
Okonkwo is primed for a second-year leap, not only due to his own development but also because of the makeup of Tennessee's roster. DeAndre Hopkins and a healthy Treylon Burks will help open holes for Okonkwo in the secondary.
The second-year tight end will also benefit from having a healthy Ryan Tannehill at quarterback—though Tannehill may eventually give way to rookie Will Levis if the season goes south. Okonkwo spent a large chunk of 2022 with Malik Willis and Joshua Dobbs under center.
Okonkwo has legitimate top-eight potential as a fantasy tight end, and he's flying undar the rader as TE13.
Bust: Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans
Dalton Schultz was a starting-caliber fantasy tight end with the Dallas Cowboys, but that's likely to change now that he's in Houston.
Schultz should be one of C.J. Stroud's top targets, but if the preseason was an accurate indication, the rookie quarterback's development will come slowly. Stroud was consistently flustered by the New England Patriots' pass rush and finished a mere 2-of-4 for 13 yards with an interception.
Eventually, Stroud will be fine. However, the Texans are still one of the league's least talented teams, and Houston's offense will experience its fair share of growing pains in 2023.
After catching 57 passes for 577 yards and five touchdowns in Dallas last season, Schultz is set for a moderate step backward. He's being overvalued as TE11 and should not be targeted as a surefire starter.
*Average draft position via FantasyPros.
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