Every MLB Team's Best-Case Scenario for Rest of 2023 Regular Season
Now that the trade deadline has come and gone, the 2023 Major League Baseball season is firmly in the stretch run. Everyone is trying for a good finish.
But what, exactly, does the best-case scenario look like for each team?
That's what we set out to determine, albeit while trying to stay grounded in reality. This was a matter of spotlighting individual players who could make a sizable impact. It was also about how contenders might get into the playoffs, and how non-contenders might at least salvage hope for the future.
We'll go division by division, starting in the American League East and ending in the National League West.
American League East
1 of 6
1. Baltimore Orioles (70-43): Keep Up the Good Starting Pitching and Win the Division
The Orioles are in first place generally in spite of their starting rotation, which is decidedly aceless and tethered to mediocrity by way of a 4.38 ERA.
It has, however, been getting better. After posting a 4.48 ERA in the first half, Baltimore starters are down to a 4.00 ERA since the All-Star break. With more of that, there will be little to stop them from winning their first AL East title since 2014.
2. Tampa Bay Rays (69-46): They Avoid Further Catastrophic Injuries and Mount a Comeback
The Rays finally lost their hold on first place on July 20 and have since seen their deficit to the Orioles grow as high as three games. If Shane McClanahan does indeed miss the rest of the year with a forearm injury, it's hard to imagine them erasing that.
Yet this is still a good team, and one that would certainly be worse off right now if it hadn't had the wherewithal to trade for Aaron Civale. A rally to reclaim the AL East lead may yet be possible, especially if de facto ace Tyler Glasnow's back spasms go away.
3. Toronto Blue Jays (64-51): Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Comes Alive and They Surge into the AL East Lead
It's a credit to the Blue Jays that they've done as well as they have even though Guerrero, ostensibly their best hitter, only has a .784 OPS and 18 home runs. They frankly need more from him, especially while Bo Bichette is out with patellar tendinitis.
In the event Guerrero does get hot, the Jays might raise their playoff ambitions from a wild-card berth to the AL East title. They are, after all, already playing good baseball with 19 wins in their last 30 games.
4. New York Yankees (59-55): Avoid Further Injuries and Salvage a Wild-Card Berth
The Yankees have already spent a league-high $64.9 million on players on the injured list, and it's not getting any better. Just in the last week, they've had to place Anthony Rizzo and Carlos Rodón on the IL.
Still, their chances of making the playoffs aren't at zero. FanGraphs even gives them a 11.9 percent chance of earning a wild card, and that number can only go up if they can so much as avoid further injuries.
5. Boston Red Sox (58-55): Trevor Story and Chris Sale Return and It's Smooth Sailing to a Wild Card
The Red Sox's season has mostly been an exercise in hanging around, though they've lately had trouble doing even that much with losses in eight out of their last 10 games.
Yet help is on the way. Story is already back at shortstop and Sale is slated to rejoin Boston's rotation on Friday. With Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck also set to return to the mound before long, the Red Sox's wild-card hopes haven't dried up just yet.
American League Central
2 of 6
1. Minnesota Twins (60-55): The Offense Gets Healthy and Hotter in Time for October
Even if the Twins are basically running unopposed in the AL Central at this point, it remains hard to see them as a major player in the broader American League playoff picture. They pitch well, sure, but their offense scares nobody.
Or does it? The Twins are suddenly averaging 5.4 runs per game in the second half even though Carlos Correa is still cold and Byron Buxton and Alex Kirilloff are injured. If these things change for the better, Minnesota's odds of a deep playoff run will look better for it.
2. Cleveland Guardians (55-59): Bo Naylor Shows Why He's the Catcher of the Future
Now that they're 10-15 in their last 25 games and 8.5 games out in the wild-card race, it's about time for the Guardians to shift their focus to the future, where there are hopefully better days.
What would help is if Naylor did more to show why he was formerly ranked as one of MLB's top catching prospects. He hasn't done much since joining the team on a full-time basis on June 18, but the talent to become a two-way star is still there somewhere.
3. Detroit Tigers (50-63): Tarik Skubal's Comeback Finishes as Strong as It's Started
The Tigers find themselves careening toward a seventh straight losing season, and it's doubtful that anything can save them from it. Suffice it to say they still have rebuilding to do.
On the plus side, it doesn't seem as if sitting for nearly a full year after elbow surgery has robbed Skubal of anything. Albeit with limits on his pitches and innings, the 26-year-old lefty has looked like a building block again in pitching to a 3.67 ERA in six outings since July 4.
4. Chicago White Sox (46-69): Distract Everyone with a Winning Streak
As if things weren't bad enough, now the White Sox are dealing with ongoing airing of their dirty laundry. They can dispute them all they want, but Keynan Middleton's and Lance Lynn's ruthless reviews of the White Sox's team culture have struck a chord.
Whether there's any fixing what, if anything, ails the White Sox clubhouse is not for us to say. All we can say is that it wouldn't hurt if they went on some kind of winning streak, so as to imply everyone's getting along just fine, thank you.
5. Kansas City Royals (37-78): Somebody Besides Bobby Witt Jr. Shows There's Hope
Witt is by far the best reason to watch the Royals these days. The 23-year-old started slow, but since June 30 he's looked the part of a former No. 1 prospect by cranking out a .987 OPS with eight home runs and nine stolen bases in 32 games.
Now all the Royals need is literally anyone else to prove their 26-man roster isn't a one-man show. The best candidate may be left-hander Cole Ragans, who's been brilliant in three outings since coming over from the Texas Rangers in the Aroldis Chapman trade.
American League West
3 of 6
1. Texas Rangers (68-46): Wrap Up the Division and Get Healthy in Time for October
Even though FanGraphs sees the Rangers and Astros as basically being in a dead heat in the race for the AL West title, the Rangers hold a three-game lead and aren't exactly loosening their grip on it. They've won all seven games they've played in August.
If they can keep that up for just a few more weeks, the only thing left to do will be getting Nathan Eovaldi, Jonah Heim and Josh Jung healthy in time for the playoffs. If they do, it'll be World Series or bust.
2. Houston Astros (65-49): Justin Verlander Keeps Shoving and They Complete the Comeback
The Astros may still be three games behind the Rangers, but that's certainly preferable to the 6.5-game deficit they had as recently as June 24. And with their own IL relatively sparsely populated right now, they're in position to keep the heat on.
It also helps to have Verlander back. With a 1.64 ERA over eight starts dating back to June 26, the three-time Cy Young Award winner and future Hall of Famer could have a bigger hand than anyone in erasing the Rangers' lead once and for all.
3. Seattle Mariners (61-52): Stay Red-Hot and Claim At Least a Wild Card Spot
While the focus has rightfully stayed on the Rangers and Astros, the Mariners are also lurking at 6.5 games off the pace. And with a 14-4 record since July 20, they're on a heater the likes of which they probably had in them all along.
All they have to do now is keep it up, hopefully by way of continued hotness on the part of Julio Rodríguez and Cal Raleigh. If they do, they may not have to settle for entry into the postseason as a mere wild card.
4. Los Angeles Angels (57-58): Mike Trout's Return Marks the Turn of the Tide
You can't fault the Angels for choosing to go for it at the trade deadline, but it's not going so well. They've lost nine out of 12 to fall seven games off the pace in the AL wild-card race.
Seemingly their only hope now resides in Trout, who's due back from a hamate fracture sometime this month. If the three-time AL MVP displays his vintage form upon returning, the Angels may yet have a season-saving run in them.
5. Oakland Athletics (32-82): Finish with Fewer Than 110 Losses
We thought about raising the possibility of the Las Vegas move falling through, John Fisher choosing to sell the team and a mountain of gold being discovered beneath the Coliseum, but all this clashes with our commitment to being realistic here.
Instead, it would be good enough if this A's team so much as came in under the 110-loss threshold. A long shot, perhaps, but we'll justify it under the ancient universal law of "stranger things have happened."
National League East
4 of 6
1. Atlanta (71-40): Go Into the Playoffs Hotter Than They've Come Out of the Break
There isn't a whole lot for Atlanta to worry about these days. Their 10.5-game lead in the NL East almost certainly isn't going to disappear, and ditto for their 5.5-game lead on the Los Angeles Dodgers for the No. 1 seed in the National League.
And yet, an 11-11 record out of the gate in the second half isn't exactly befitting of a team with Atlanta's aspirations. They need to get hot again, lest they risk entering October with their best baseball already behind them.
2. Philadelphia Phillies (62-52): Trea Turner Finally Gets Hot in Time for the Playoffs
Even if the gap between them and Atlanta isn't exactly closing, the Phillies are trending just fine with a 37-20 record dating back to June 3. And as they showed in 2022, they know how to get from the Wild Card Round to the World Series.
What would help, though, is if Turner finally showed up. He's shown hints of doing so here and there—and you have to admire how he's handling himself—but he's still sitting on a .677 OPS. For $300 million, the Phillies can and should expect more.
3. Miami Marlins (59-56): Eury Pérez Finds His Form Again and They Grab a Wild Card
We're not trying to imply that Pérez is the sole reason the Marlins are in contention, but they did go 32-19 while he was putting up a 2.36 ERA between May 12 and July 6. They're 27-37 otherwise this season.
As such, hope for a strong finish leading to a wild-card berth was kindled when Pérez returned from the minors on Monday. Yes, even if he coughed up four runs over 4.2 innings to the Cincinnati Reds.
4. New York Mets (51-62): Ronny Mauricio Gets Called Up and Cements Himself as Part of the Future
Being 11 games under .500 at this point wasn't what the Mets envisioned when they entered this season with a record $350 million payroll. But since them's the breaks, all they can do now is go out on a high note.
Mauricio would be part of that in a perfect world, and sooner rather than later. Currently ranked by B/R's Joel Reuter as MLB's No. 39 prospect, the 22-year-old has certainly earned his shot after hitting .287 with an .819 OPS at Triple-A Syracuse.
5. Washington Nationals (50-64): CJ Abrams and Keibert Ruiz Finish the 2nd Half as Strong as They've Started It
It's a rough year the Nationals are having, but it's a silver lining that one need not squint to see what they're building for the future. Josiah Gray is a freshly minted All-Star atop their rotation and Abrams and Ruiz have lately been looking like stars to anchor the lineup.
Since the first half gave way to the second, both are hitting over .300 with some power. Abrams has also stolen 13 bases in 13 tries, making him 27-for-29 overall on the season.
National League Central
5 of 6
1. Milwaukee Brewers (61-54): Willy Adames Snaps Out of His Funk and They Hold On
With Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta pitching well and Brandon Woodruff freshly off the injured list, the Brewers have the arms they need to maintain their slim lead in the NL Central. What they really need is more from their bats.
Adames, who's following a 31-homer season in 2022 with a .662 OPS and 17 homers this year, is especially overdue to catch fire. If he does, even that might be enough for the Brewers to stave off their pursuers.
2. Chicago Cubs (59-55): More of the Same Hotness Results in a Takeover of 1st Place
Even when the Cubs were a season-high 8.5 games out of first place on July 20, their situation wasn't entirely hopeless. After all, they were the only team in the NL Central with a positive run differential.
Sure enough, the Cubs have since been collecting on outstanding good luck by winning 16 of their last 21 games. They just need to keep doing what they're doing, though taking the majority of the six games they have left against Milwaukee wouldn't hurt either.
3. Cincinnati Reds (60-56): Hunter Greene Returns and Pushes Them into 1st Place
The Reds have been running hot and cold for a while, but the threat of sustained coldness seems especially real now. They're 1-7 in August, for which the team's 7.71 ERA looms as a particularly large cause.
Luckily, the hard-throwing Greene is nearing his return from the IL after close to two months away with hip pain. If he gets back on the same track that saw him post a solid 3.93 ERA through his first 14 outings, the Reds could mount one last charge at the division lead.
4. Pittsburgh Pirates (51-62): The Young Guys All Find Their Footing Ahead of 2024
The Pirates have a chance to play spoiler down the stretch, but there's no mistaking that the remainder of 2023 is really all about 2024. And it's mainly up to the young guys to build an effective springboard.
The ideal scenario involves not just rookies Henry Davis, Endy Rodríguez and Quinn Priester finding their footing, but Oneil Cruz returning from the IL in encouraging fashion. If all of the above happens, a bleak present will suddenly hint at a bright future.
5. St. Louis Cardinals (49-65): Adam Wainwright Goes Out on a High Note
The Cardinals have some young guys to straighten out in their own right, but you'll have to excuse us if all we want to do right now is root for Wainwright. The mere notion of him finishing his career with a 7.81 ERA is just no fun at all.
So, here's hoping the 41-year-old figures gets right and goes out pitching like the legend he is. At the least, it would be good enough if his 200th career wins comes amid a sea of Cardinals red at Busch Stadium.
National League West
6 of 6
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (66-46): Clayton Kershaw and Julio Urías Both End the Year Healthy and Hot
The Dodgers ought to feel relatively safe atop the NL West. Even if their lead is "only" four games, they're running hot at 27-13 since June 20 and they have an easier remaining schedule than their closest pursuers.
But if the Dodgers really want to position themselves for a World Series run, they need Kershaw and Urías pitching like aces again. Things are looking up in this respect, as Kershaw is due off the IL on Aug. 10 and Urías has pitched well in five of his last six starts.
2. San Francisco Giants (62-52): Wilmer Flores Gets Offensive Help and They Shock the Dodgers
If anyone is going to catch the Dodgers, it's probably the Giants. They're 33-22 since June 7, and that's even though their offense has yet to establish any kind of consistency.
So it goes in the second half, wherein Flores has a hot bat amid a bundle of cold ones. Not to name names, but Joc Pederson and Michael Conforto are among those who need to come to the rescue if the Giants are going to be more than a wild-card team.
3. Arizona Diamondbacks (57-57): The Offense Gets Back on Track and They Salvage a Wild Card
Speaking of sputtering offenses, the Diamondbacks scored runs in every which way through June, but it's been diminishing returns ever since then. They've produced only 3.6 runs per game amid a 7-23 slide since July 2.
There are no catastrophic injuries at play here. It's just a collective slump, and one that Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte need to take the lead in snapping the team out of it in order to salvage a wild-card berth.
4. San Diego Padres (55-59): A Late Surge Puts Them in Position for a 2022 Repeat
For what it's worth, the Padres are 17-13 since dropping to a season-low-tying eight games under .500 on July 2. But they're also 7-8 in their last 15 games, thus indicating that whoever cursed them to mediocrity this year is still getting their way.
Amid this vexing situation, all we can really do is shrug our shoulders and simply say the Padres need to finish strong. You know, sort of like they did last year before they mounted a surprise run to the National League Championship Series.
5. Colorado Rockies (45-68): They Finish with a Winning Record at Home
The Rockies have had a bad team all year, and it didn't exactly get better when they shipped off Randal Grichuk and C.J Cron at the deadline. A hard landing seems all but guaranteed.
However, the Rockies might at least salvage a winning record at Coors Field. That's where they're already relatively tough to beat at 25-30 with 26 games still to go. The goal should be to win at least 16 of those.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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