Fantasy Football 2023: Breaking Down Mock Draft and Cheatsheet

It's almost that time of year again already. Fantasy football drafts are right around the corner, so plan your parties, do your research, gather your friends and prepare to select the players who you'll be pulling for throughout the 2023 NFL season.

The draft is always one of the best parts of the fantasy football year. However, it's not just a time for fun. By picking the wrong players, there may not be much more fun as a fantasy manager in the weeks and months that will follow.

So spend the next few weeks doing draft prep in order to end up with the best team possible. It's never too early to start hopping into some mock drafts to test out different strategies and to see how the board could unfold.

Here's a first-round mock (via the FantasyPros simulator) and a breakdown of how the first 10-12 picks may go.

1st-Round Mock Draft

AP Photo/Adam Hunger

The NFL logo is seen before the NFL Super Bowl 57 football game Sunday, Feb. 12, 2023, in Glendale, Ariz. (AP Photo/Adam Hunger)

1. Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings

2. Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers

3. Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Chargers

4. Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants

5. Ja'Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

6. Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs

7. Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams

8. Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins

9. Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns

10. Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons

11. Stefon Diggs, WR, Buffalo Bills

12. Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans

Jefferson Appears to Be a Lock at No. 1 Overall

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EAGAN, MN - JULY 31: Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) catches a pass during Minnesota Vikings Training Camp at TCO Performance Center on July 31, 2023 in Eagan, Minnesota.(Photo by Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Most years, a running back is almost always a lock to go No. 1 overall. Especially if there's a star RB with strong pass-catching ability, as he'll be even more valuable in points-per-reception leagues.

However, Jefferson appears to be the consensus No. 1 player in fantasy drafts in 2023. And for good reason.

The 24-year-old Vikings wide receiver has been incredible over his first three seasons, and he's only getting better. In 2022, he finished with 128 catches for 1,809 yards and eight touchdowns over 17 games.

As long as Jefferson puts up similar numbers (which is reasonable to expect), he should again be one of the top fantasy performers in the league. He'll also need to continue to stay healthy, which hasn't been a problem, as he's played 50 games in three seasons.

Which of the Top-Tier RBs Should Go First?

AP Photo/Jeff Chiu

San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey takes part in an NFL football practice in Santa Clara, Calif., Wednesday, May 31, 2023. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)

Once Jefferson comes off the board, that leaves McCaffrey, Ekeler and Barkley as players who will be in consideration at No. 2. All three of those star running backs are likely to get selected within the top five. But if you're at No. 2 or No. 3, how should you prioritize them?

McCaffrey is the clear top fantasy RB, especially now that he's proven he can again stay healthy for an entire season. He played a full 17 games in 2022, spending the first six with the Carolina Panthers before he got traded to the San Francisco 49ers.

It was also encouraging to see McCaffrey produce at a high level in San Francisco, where he had 746 rushing yards, 464 receiving yards and 10 total touchdowns. So McCaffrey should be the top running back on fantasy managers' draft boards.

Ekeler and Barkley both have the potential to put up big numbers, but the former is more valuable (especially in PPR leagues) due to his involvement in the Chargers' passing game. However, as long as both of these RBs stay healthy, it's hard to go wrong with either.

How High Should Rookie RB Robinson Go?

AP Photo/Alex Slitz

Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson (7) runs a drill during the NFL football team's training camp, Saturday, July 29, 2023, in Flowery Branch, Ga. (AP Photo/Alex Slitz)

There's seemingly been a rookie running back in the first-round fantasy conversation almost every year of late. In 2020, it was the Kansas City Chiefs' Clyde Edwards-Helaire. In 2021, it was the Pittsburgh Steelers' Najee Harris.

This year, it's Bijan Robinson, who was selected by the Atlanta Falcons with the No. 8 overall pick in the 2023 NFL draft out of the University of Texas. The former Longhorn became the highest drafted RB since Barkley went No. 2 to the Giants in 2018.

Many fantasy managers will likely be enticed to take Robinson with a top-10 fantasy pick because of his potential upside. But he probably shouldn't go any earlier than No. 8 due to the uncertainty of how he'll transition to the NFL and how he'll be utilized by the Falcons.

It seems likely Robinson will have a strong first year in Atlanta, but fantasy managers must always be cautious when drafting rookies. So don't overpay for a player who has yet to play a snap in the NFL.