2023 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Latest Projections Entering NFL Preseason
The NFL preseason is underway, and in just over a month, the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions will kick off the 2023 campaign—and with it another year of fantasy football.
Now that the calendar has turned to August, fantasy draft season is in high gear, and managers are busily preparing to select their teams. They are compiling rankings. Doing research. Reading articles and taking part in mock drafts.
Now, not everyone has the time or opportunity to participate in mocks themselves. But you can also get a feel for how players are being valued and where potential bargains lie by examining drafts that have already happened.
That's what we're going to do here. Earlier this week, I conducted a draft with a group that included other fantasy analysts, experienced players, B/R's own Maurice Moton and even a bestselling mystery novelist. It's no practice draft, either—we will be playing this bad boy out.
Here's how that draft unfolded, with this intrepid writer picking from the 11th slot.
Round 1
1 of 13
1.01: Justin Jefferson, WR, MIN
1.02: Ja'Marr Chase, WR, CIN
1.03: Christian McCaffrey, RB, SF
1.04: Austin Ekeler, RB, LAC
1.05: Cooper Kupp, WR, LAR
1.06: Travis Kelce, TE, KC
1.07: Bijan Robinson, RB, ATL
1.08: Saquon Barkley, RB, NYG
1.09: Nick Chubb, RB, CLE
1.10: Tyreek Hill, WR, MIA
1.11: Stefon Diggs, WR, BUF
1.12: CeeDee Lamb, WR, DAL
Changing Times
It wasn't that long ago that the first round of fantasy football drafts regularly contained eight to 10 running backs. The position dominated the round. But as the NFL became more pass-heavy and the number of every-down backs decreased in recent years, that pendulum began to swing.
In this draft, the script has flipped altogether—there were six wide receivers taken, as opposed to five running backs and one tight end.
In PPR formats such as this one, wide receivers tend to score more than their counterparts at running back—and do so more consistently. They also have (as a whole) a lower bust rate than running backs.
This isn't to say that elite running backs such as Christian McCaffrey aren't still highly valuable. But the NFL has changed. Fantasy managers need to change with it.
King Kelce
Last year, Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce outscored the No. 2 fantasy tight end (T.J. Hockenson of the Minnesota Vikings) by over 100 PPR points. A full six fantasy points per game. Since 2016, Kelce has failed to finish as the top tight end exactly once—and he was second that season.
Kelce affords fantasy managers a massive edge over the other teams in their league at his position. It makes Kelce a more than viable first-round pick, In fact, an argument can be made for drafting Kelce first overall.
My Pick
Stefon Diggs may not have been pleased with how the 2022 season ended for the Buffalo Bills, but fantasy managers have to have been pleased with his production during the season. Diggs was fourth in PPR points among wide receivers and fifth in fantasy points per game, and he has surpassed 100 receptions and 1,200 receiving yards in all three of his seasons with the Bills. He's a no-doubt high-end fantasy WR1.
Round 2
2 of 13
2.01: Tony Pollard, RB, DAL
2.02: Jonathan Taylor, RB, IND
2.03: Derrick Henry, RB, TEN
2.04: Mark Andrews, TE, BAL
2.05: Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, DET
2.06: A.J. Brown, WR, PHI
2.07: Davante Adams, WR, LV
2.08: Garrett Wilson, WR, NYJ
2.09: Jaylen Waddle, WR, MIA
2.10: Josh Jacobs, RB, LV
2.11: Najee Harris, RB, PIT
2.12: Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, NE
Beware the Curse of 370
For the most part, curses are silly—landing on the cover of the Madden video game hardly dooms a player to a horrific fate. However, there is one curse in fantasy football that has more than a little basis in fact.
The gist of the curse is this: If a running back eclipses 370 carries (or even touches) in a season, that running back usually sees a substantial drop-off in production the following season. It doesn't always happen—but it does much more often than not.
Two of the running backs taken in Round 2 surpassed 370 touches in 2022—Derrick Henry of the Titans and Josh Jacobs of the Raiders. With one turning 30 soon and the other unhappy about his contract, both backs carry substantial risk in 2023.
More Trouble in Sin City
Last year, Davante Adams had a fantastic first season with the Las Vegas Raiders—100 catches, over 1,500 receiving yards, 14 touchdowns and a third-place fantasy finish. But Adams did that damage with a quarterback (Derek Carr) who was fourth in the NFL in intended air yards per pass attempt.
But now, Carr is in New Orleans, and Adams is playing with a quarterback in Jimmy Garoppolo who was 25th in that same category with the San Francisco 49ers last year.
That lack of vertical passing is going to negatively impact Adams' production this season. The only question is how badly.
My Pick
With each passing day the Jonathan Taylor saga grows more and more contentious—Taylor has requested a trade, owner Jim Irsay has stated he won't get one and right now the fourth-year veteran is on the PUP list. However, before everything went 12 kinds of sideways in Indianapolis, Taylor was a borderline top-five pick. In 2021, he led all running backs in PPR points. It's a calculated risk, but if Taylor is on the field Week 1 and healthy, he's a value in this spot.
Round 3
3 of 13
3.01: DK Metcalf, WR, SEA
3.02: Joe Mixon, RB, CIN
3.03: Calvin Ridley, WR, JAX
3.04: Keenan Allen, WR, LAC
3.05: Breece Hall, RB, NYJ
3.06: Aaron Jones, RB, GB
3.07: J.K. Dobbins, RB. BAL
3.08: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, DET
3.09: Mike Williams, WR, LAC
3.10: Travis Etienne, RB, JAX
3.11: Miles Sanders, RB, CAR
3.12: Cam Akers, RB, LAR
No Zeroes Here
In recent years, a draft strategy has gained popularity in fantasy circles—"Zero RB." Essentially, Zero RB drafters fade the position altogether over the first six or seven rounds, with the reasoning being that wide receivers are more predictable and have a lower overall bust rate. It also affords managers the opportunity to potentially add an elite quarterback and/or tight end.
With that said, you won't find any adherents to that philosophy in this draft. Three rounds in, there isn't a single team in the league without a running back, and Round 3 was dominated by the position.
In all, eight backs were selected in Round 3 here. It rather looked like the first round of a draft from five years ago.
All Aboard the Hype Train
Frankly, given the amount of hype surrounding rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs of the Detroit Lions, it's a little surprising he lasted until the back half of the third round.
Despite the presence of David Montgomery in Detroit, there are more than a few fantasy pundits who believe that the 12th overall pick in the 2023 draft has legitimate fantasy RB1 upside. At the very least, a compelling argument can be made that he's a more attractive pick than players like Breece Hall of the Jets and J.K. Dobbins of the Ravens who have workload and/or injury concerns.
My Pick
Getting caught at the tail end of a run in fantasy drafts is never fun, but that's what happened to me here—grabbing an RB2 felt like something I had to do more than something I wanted to do. Expecting Sanders to back up last year's 1,269 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns may be asking a bit much, but the touches should be there in Carolina and Sanders could be more involved in the passing game than he was in Philadelphia a year ago.
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Round 4
4 of 13
4.01: Amari Cooper, WR, CLE
4.02: Chris Olave, WR, NO
4.03: Kenneth Walker III, RB, SEA
4.04: Justin Herbert, QB, LAC
4.05: Tee Higgins, WR, CIN
4.06: Jerry Jeudy, WR, DEN
4.07: Patrick Mahomes, QB, KC
4.08: DeVonta Smith, WR, PHI
4.09: Alexander Mattison, RB, MIN
4.10: Deebo Samuel, WR, SF
4.11: Mike Evans, WR, TB
4.12: Josh Allen, QB, BUF
Get Your Guy
The selection of Justin Herbert of the Chargers as the first quarterback off the board is an eyebrow-raiser—most fantasy pundits have signal-callers like Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes and Buffalo's Josh Allen ranked higher.
But here's the thing: By the time that team would have picked again at 5.09, four more quarterbacks were drafted. There's a real possibility Herbert wouldn't have made it back around. That manager wanted Herbert on their team—so they went and got him.
Don't be afraid to reach a little for the players you want. It's your team—make it yours.
Bust Alert
Two years ago, Deebo Samuel of the 49ers was a fantasy force—he topped 1,700 total yards, scored eight times on the ground and finished third among wide receivers in PPR points.
But after the Niners acquired running back Christian McCaffrey last year, Samuel's role in the rushing game decreased significantly. His yards per target plummeted from 11.6 in 2021 to 6.7 a year ago. And he had fewer PPR fantasy points than fellow San Francisco receiver Brandon Aiyuk.
Taking Samuel as the 21st receiver off the board isn't terrible value. But that's a lot closer to Samuel's fantasy ceiling than his floor.
My Pick
Losing out on Cleveland's Amari Cooper (compliments of my B/R colleague Maurice Moton) stung a little bit, but Chris Olave of the Saints isn't a bad consolation prize. Olave topped 1,000 receiving yards last year and finished among the top 25 fantasy receivers, and with the upgrade at quarterback in New Orleans this year, it's not hard to imagine Olave improving on those numbers. The top 15 is a real possibility—he says hopefully.
Round 5
5 of 13
5.01: James Conner, RB, AZ
5.02: Jalen Hurts, QB, PHI
5.03: Chris Godwin, WR, TB
5.04: T.J. Hockenson, TE, MIN
5.05: Lamar Jackson, QB, BAL
5.06: Javonte Williams, RB, DEN
5.07: Diontae Johnson, WR, PIT
5.08: Terry McLaurin, WR, WAS
5.09: Tyler Lockett, WR, SEA
5.10: DeAndre Hopkins, WR, TEN
5.11: Rachaad White, RB, TB
5.12: Alvin Kamara, RB, NO
A Tricky Call
One of the harder decisions for fantasy managers in early drafts this year has been when to select Saints running back Alvin Kamara.
When healthy and on the field, he has top-10 fantasy upside.
But following a no-contest plea to a misdemeanor breach of peace charge—after originally facing misdemeanor and felony battery charges stemming from a 2022 fight in Las Vegas—he could receive a personal-conduct suspension.
We should have more clarity on the situation soon—Kamara met with commissioner Roger Goodell on Wednesday to discuss the incident. A suspension is expected, but the length of that suspension is unknown. If it's two games, getting Kamara in Round 5 was great value.
However, if it's six games (nearly half the fantasy regular season), that's another matter.
The Hopkins Conundrum
For many years, DeAndre Hopkins has been one of the most productive wide receivers in fantasy football. In 2020 with the Arizona Cardinals, Hopkins caught 115 passes, topped 1,400 yards and finished fourth in PPR fantasy points.
But he is also a 31-year-old wideout who has missed 15 games over the past two seasons. And after signing with the Tennessee Titans, he plays for a team that ranked 30th in the NFL in pass attempts last season.
Drafting Hopkins as a third receiver isn't necessarily a bad idea. But fantasy managers need to be realistic that that's what he is at this point.
My Pick
The running backs I have any level of confidence in were drying up, as were the runners who should receive the lion's share of the backfield touches in 2023. Rachaad White averaged less than four yards per carry last year in Tampa, but he has reportedly impressed in camp, per ESPN's Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler, and is expected to see a heavy workload as both a runner and receiver.
Round 6
6 of 13
6.01: Trevor Lawrence, QB, JAX
6.02: Christian Watson, WR, GB
6.03: Michael Pittman Jr., WR, IND
6.04: Brandin Cooks, WR, DAL
6.05: Joe Burrow, QB, CIN
6.06: David Montgomery, RB, DET
6.07: Brandon Aiyuk, WR, SF
6.08: Drake London, WR, ATL
6.09: Justin Fields, QB, CHI
6.10: D'Andre Swift, RB, PHI
6.11: Christian Kirk, WR, JAX
6.12: D.J. Moore, WR, CHI
The RB 'Dead Zone'
There were only two running backs selected in Round 6, and that may have something to do with the fact that it's smack in the middle of the "RB Dead Zone"—an area in the middle rounds of drafts where the bust rates at running back are much higher than at wide receiver.
Part of the reason for those bust rates is that running backs in this part of the draft almost all face questions of some sort. In Detroit, David Montgomery has to compete with rookie Jahmyr Gibbs for touches. D'Andre Swift is in a similar situation in Philadelphia with Rashaad Penny and has an injury history.
Could one become a viable weekly fantasy starter? Yes, But it's hardly guaranteed.
WR Values
The running backs available at this point may leave something to be desired, but there were several intriguing wide receivers taken in Round 6.
Veteran Brandin Cooks of the Cowboys has six 1,000-yard seasons on his resume. Drake London of the Falcons and Christian Watson of the Packers are ascending No. 1 receivers. Brandon Aiyuk of the 49ers and Christian Kirk of the Jaguars were both top-15 fantasy options in 2022.
Getting players with that sort of upside in WR3 territory is solid value.
My Pick
Watson of the Packers may have started slowly last year, but he caught fire down the stretch—from Week 10 on, Watson was ninth in PPR points among receivers. Granted, that was mostly with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, but Watson should be Jordan Love's most-targeted receiver, so expectations of at least high-end WR3 numbers aren't unreasonable.
Round 7
7 of 13
7.01: Dameon Pierce, RB, HOU
7.02: James Cook, RB, BUF
7.03: Kyle Pitts, TE, ATL
7.04: Dalvin Cook, RB, FA
7.05: George Kittle, TE, SF
7.06: Marquise Brown, WR, AZ
7.07: Jahan Dotson, WR, WAS
7.08: Darren Waller, TE, LV
7.09: Isiah Pacheco, RB, KV
7.10: George Pickens, WR, PIT
7.11: Dallas Goedert, TE, PHI
7.12: Courtland Sutton, WR, DEN
Banking on Pitts
As a rookie, Kyle Pitts surpassed 1,000 receiving yards. But last year, Pitts spent most of the season on a milk carton—he caught one more touchdown pass than the year before, but his targets, receptions and receiving yards all went careening off a cliff.
There's no guarantee that Pitts can recapture those rookie receiving numbers—the Falcons are going to be a run-first team, and Desmond Ridder isn't a proven option at quarterback. But among the tight ends who were drafted in Round 7, Pitts likely has the highest fantasy ceiling.
What Can Brown Do for You?
Normally, being able to acquire a No. 1 wide receiver who has a 1,000-yard season on his resume in the middle of the seventh round would be cause for celebration. With Marquise Brown of the Cardinals, though, it's another story.
If Kyler Murray plays most of the season, Brown could be a fantasy bargain—the Cardinals will likely be playing catch-up with regularity, which means plenty of passes. But Murray's injured ACL and the team's questions at quarterback make Brown a risky WR3 pick in 2023.
My Pick
I was the fourth and final manager to draft a tight end in Round 7, and I did so for a simple reason: After Dallas Goedert of the Eagles, there's a sizable drop-off at the position in my rankings. Goedert missed five games last season, but when the 28-year-old was out there, he was one of the more productive tight ends in fantasy football—fifth at the position in PPR points per game.
Round 8
8 of 13
8.01: Juwan Johnson, TE, NO
8.02: AJ Dillon, RB, GB
8.03: Jameson Williams, WR, DET
8.04: Odell Beckham, Jr., WR, BAL
8.05: Jordan Addison, WR, MIN
8.06: D.J. Chark, WR, CAR
8.07: Devon Achane, RB, MIA
8.08: Antonio Gibson, RB, WAS
8.09: Brian Robinson, RB, WAS
8.10: Elijah Mitchell, RB, SF
8.11: Evan Engram, TE, JAX
8.12: Gabe Davis, WR, BUF
The Williams Gambit
Jameson Williams is a wildly talented downfield threat. But his rookie season was mostly quiet as he worked his way back from an ACL tear. And this year he'll spend the first six games serving a suspension for violating the NFL's gambling policy.
Drafting a player who will miss nearly half the fantasy regular season is a risky play—especially since there could once again be rust to shake off. But once he's back, Williams will be the No. 2 receiver for a Lions offense that should be a potent one. Williams could be an asset for fantasy managers down the stretch—or a wasted pick.
The Value of Handcuffing
There's some disagreement among fantasy pundits as to the value of "handcuffing" running backs—drafting the backup to an early-round pick as a measure of insurance against what could be a season-crippling injury.
With that said, if there's one back worth buying insurance for, it's Christian McCaffrey of the 49ers. And credit where it's due to the manager who did so by drafting Elijah Mitchell. Mitchell has shown he can produce in Kyle Shanahan's offense, and should McCaffrey miss significant time, Mitchell could be a season-saver.
My Pick
AJ Dillon isn't a "sizzle" pick—his fantasy upside is capped by the presence of Aaron Jones, and fantasy managers apparently have their doubts about the Green Bay offense in 2023. But Dillon was quietly 27th in PPR fantasy points among running backs, so he's at least a decent bye-week fill-in. Were something to happen to Jones, he could be much more than that.
Round 9
9 of 13
9.01: Khalil Herbert, RB, CHI
9.02: Michael Thomas, WR, NO
9.03: Deshaun Watson, QB, CLE
9.04: JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, NE
9.05: Samaje Perine, RB, DEN
9.06: Jamaal Williams, RB, NO
9.07: Zach Charbonnet, RB, SEA
9.08: Jerick McKinnon, RB, KC
9.09: Geno Smith, QB, SEA
9.10: Dak Prescott, QB, DAL
9.11: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, SEA
9.12: Dalton Schultz, TE, HOU
Patience Is a Virtue
There's a lot to be said for having an elite quarterback like Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen and the big numbers they can put up. But quarterback is the deepest position in fantasy football, and you can wait and still get a productive weekly starter later on.
There's no guarantee that Cleveland's Deshaun Watson can recapture his old form, but in his last full season under center in Houston, he led the NFL in passing yards and was a top-five fantasy option. Two years ago, Dak Prescott topped 4,400 passing yards and was sixth in fantasy points among quarterbacks. Geno Smith of the Seahawks posted top-five numbers just this past year.
All were drafted in Round 9.
Running Back Questions Galore
It's possible that one of the running backs drafted in Round 9 will be a massive value in 2023. But none are anywhere close to sure things.
Kansas City's Jerick McKinnon caught nine touchdown passes last year and finished inside the top 20 in PPR points. Khalil Herbert has shown he can produce when the opportunity is there in Chicago, but the presence of D'Onta Foreman clouds the Bears backfield. Jamaal Williams led the league in rushing touchdowns last year, but what will his role/workload look like in New Orleans?
Managers who hit on one of those speculative picks are going to have a big edge on the competition this season.
My Pick
Frankly, had any of those quarterbacks made it to me, I would have taken one. But when they didn't, I pivoted to Seattle wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The rookie first-rounder has consistently been mentioned as one of the standouts from Seahawks camp, and even with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett ahead of him, Smith-Njigba could still make a statistical dent in his first season.
Round 10
10 of 13
10.01: Jeff Wilson, RB, MIA
10.02: Tua Tagovailoa, QB, MIA
10.03: Raheem Mostert, RB, MIA
10.04: Tyler Allgeier, RB, ATL
10.05: Elijah Moore, WR, CLE
10.06: Rashaad Penny, RB, PHI
10.07: Zay Jones, WR, JAX
10.08: Damien Harris, RB, BUF
10.09: Pat Freiermuth, TE, PIT
10.10: Treylon Burks, WR, TEN
10.11: Skyy Moore, WR, KC
10.12: David Njoku, TE, CLE
A Penny for Your Thoughts
It's no secret in the fantasy community that Rashaad Penny has had trouble staying healthy. But it's also no secret that when healthy he has been a productive back—both from an NFL and fantasy perspective. For his career, Penny has averaged a gaudy 5.7 yards per carry.
When the Eagles opened training camp, it was Penny (and not D'Andre Swift) who took the first carry. That doesn't mean that Penny will be Philly's lead back. But that talent behind that line in the 10th round of a fantasy draft? Those dice are worth rolling all day.
The Skyy Is the Limit
Travis Kelce is the unquestioned No. 1 target in the Chiefs passing game. But with JuJu Smith-Schuster gone, the fantasy community is racking its brain trying to figure out which Chiefs wide receiver will lead the team in fantasy points.
Despite his mere 22 catches as a rookie, many have settled on Skyy Moore, a second-round pick out of Western Michigan. If the 5'10", 195-pounder does see a major target spike this season, he'll be a bargain at his ADP—and a potential league-winner.
My Pick
The plan here wasn't necessarily to wait until the 10th round to draft a starting quarterback, and after last year's injury-marred campaign, trusting Miami's Tua Tagovailoa as a weekly option isn't without risk. But Tagovailoa posted some big games last year before getting hurt, and the Miami offense has the weapons to be among the NFL's most explosive.
Rounds 11-13
11 of 13
11.01: San Francisco 49ers Defense
11.02: Zay Flowers, WR, BAL
11.03: Kirk Cousins, QB, MIN
11.04: Jakobi Meyers, WR, LV
11.05: Devin Singletary, RB, HOU
11.06: New England Patriots Defense
11.07: Mac Jones, QB, NE
11.08: Adam Thielen, WR, CAR
11.09: New York Jets Defense
11.10: Tyler Higbee, TE, LAR
11.11: D'Onta Foreman, RB, CHI
11.12: Russell Wilson, QB, DEN
12.01: Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, KC
12.02: Jared Goff, QB, DET
12.03: Kadarius Toney, WR, KC
12.04: Allen Lazard, WR, NYJ
12.05: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, FA
12.06: Chigoziem Okonkwo, TE, TEN
12.07: Donovan Peoples-Jones, WR, CLE
12.08: Greg Dulcich, TE, DEN
12.09: Aaron Rodgers, QB, NYJ
12.10: Cole Kmet, TE, CHI
12.11: Daniel Jones, QB, NYG
12.12: Anthony Richardson, QB, IND
13.01: Darnell Mooney, WR, CHI
13.02: Gerald Everett, TE, LAC
13.03: Rashod Bateman, WR, BAL
13.04: Cordarrelle Patterson, RB, ATL
13.05: Quentin Johnston, WR, LAC
13.06: Kenneth Gainwell, RB, PHI
13.07: Seattle Seahawks Defense
13.08: Jaylen Warren, RB, PIT
13.09: Joshua Palmer, WR, LAC
13.10: Justin Tucker, PK, BAL
13.11: Tyler Boyd, WR, CIN
13.12: Philadelphia Eagles Defense
Sleeper Alert
While fantasy pundits debate what effect the arrival of Jimmy Garoppolo will have on Davante Adams, the arrival of Jakobi Meyers in Sin City has been largely ignored. That could turn out to be a collective error in judgment.
Mind you, this isn't to say that Meyers will displace Adams as the team's No. 1 receiver or lead the team in targets. But Garoppolo isn't the sort of quarterback who attacks defenses vertically. He likes to throw the underneath stuff—and those are the routes that Meyers excels at.
Meyers was quietly a top-30 fantasy receiver for the Patriots last year. It's not inconceivable he could approach that production again in 2023.
Don't Be That Guy
There's no question that Justin Tucker of the Baltimore Ravens is the NFL's best kicker. No AFC kicker had more fantasy points in 2022 than Tucker. He's fantastic at what he does.
But no kicker (not even Tucker) is worth drafting this early. The difference in fantasy points between Tucker and the No. 12 fantasy kicker last year in terms of points per game was negligible. There's just no real edge to be had by drafting a big name at the position.
Add depth. Target a sleeper or two. And then draft a kicker in the last round.
My Picks
Khalil Herbert may be the nominal lead back in Chicago, but he's had some injury issues in the past and D'Onta Foreman is coming off the best season of his career with the Carolina Panthers. Given Tua Tagovailoa's 2022 season, picking a backup option with some upside seemed a wise idea—and Jared Goff was ninth in fantasy points among quarterbacks a year ago. Tyler Boyd doesn't have a sky-high ceiling playing behind Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins in Cincinnati, but he was a top-40 fantasy receiver last year and is at least a solid depth option.
Rounds 14-16
12 of 13
14.01: Dallas Cowboys Defense
14.02: Dalton Kincaid, TE, BUF
14.03: Leonard Fournette, RB, FA
14.04: Harrison Butker, PK, KC
14.05: Jake Elliott, PK, PHI
14.06: John Metchie, WR, HOU
14.07: Matthew Stafford, QB, LAR
14.08: Michael Carter, RB, NYJ
14.09: Green Bay Packers Defense
14.10: Tank Bigsby, RB, JAX
14.11: Malik Davis, RB, DAL
14.12: Roschon Johson, RB, CHI
15.01: Mike Gesicki, TE, MIA
15.02: Cleveland Browns Defense
15.03: Younghoe Koo, PK, ATL
15.04: Daniel Carlson, PK, LV
15.05: Buffalo Bills Defense
15.06: Irv Smith Jr., TE, CIN
15.07: Zamir White, RB. LV
15.08: Kenny Pickett, QB, PIT
15.09: Latavius Murray, RB, BUF
15.10: Nico Collins, WR, HOU
15.11: Baltimore Ravens Defense
15.12: DeVante Parker, WR, NE
16.01: Tyler Bass, PK, BUF
16.02: Evan McPherson, PK, CIN
16.03: Miami Dolphins Defense
16.04: Gardner Minshew, QB, IND
16.05: Minnesota Vikings Defense
16.06: Kyler Murray, QB, AZ
16.07: Jason Myers, PK, SEA
16.08: Jason Sanders, PK, MIA
16.09: Romeo Doubs, WR, GB
16.10: Pittsburgh Steelers Defense
16.11: Riley Patterson, PK, DET
16.12: Brandon McManus, PK, JAX
Living the Stream
It can be tempting to draft an elite team defense like the San Francisco 49ers or the New England Patriots. But the real value lies in streaming the position.
Find a team late that has a favorable Week 1 matchup like the Baltimore Ravens (home against Houston) or the Carolina Panthers (at Atlanta). Then, when the favorable matchups dry up, simply flip them to the waiver wire and repeat the cycle all over again.
Deep Sleeper Receivers
There were a couple wideouts drafted toward the end of this draft who have the potential to be sneaky values in 2023.
Third-year pro Nico Collins may not be a household name, but he was third among Texans wideouts in receiving yards last year and is penciled in as a starter for a team that will be playing from behind a lot.
In Green Bay, Romeo Doubs posted a modest 42 catches for 425 yards and three scores as a rookie. But much like Christian Watson, Doubs is going to be counted on to play a much larger role in his second professional season.
My Picks
First-year tight ends don't often make a big statistical dent, but Dalton Kincaid is a real-life first-round talent playing for an explosive offense in Buffalo. As was already mentioned, the Baltimore Ravens defense opens the 2023 campaign against arguably the worst team in the league in Houston. And Evan McPherson of the Bengals kicks for one of the most prolific offenses in the NFL. Enough said.
My Team
13 of 13
Quarterbacks: Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (10.02); Jared Goff, DET (12.02)
Running Backs: Jonathan Taylor, IND (2.02); Miles Sanders, PHI (3.11); Rachaad White, TB (5.11); AJ Dillon, GB (8.02); D'Onta Foreman, CHI (11.11)
Wide Receivers: Stefon Diggs, BUF (1.11); Chris Olave, NO (4.02); Christian Watson, GB (6.02); Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA (9.11); Tyler Boyd, CIN (13.11)
Tight Ends: Dallas Goedert, PHI (7.11); Dalton Kincaid, BUF (14.02)
Kicker: Evan McPherson, CIN (16.02)
Defense: Baltimore Ravens (15.11)
The projections at MyFantasyLeague predict this team will finish third in points in this league. If anything, that projection feels a bit optimistic, but this is a team that has the potential to be competitive—if things break the right way.
Quarterback could be a weak spot if Tagovailoa can't stay healthy—or a strength if he does. Sanders and White could hold things down for a week or two were the Taylor saga to drag on, but make no mistake: If he misses a large portion of the season, this team is in big trouble.
The receivers are in pretty good shape—the front three are solid, and if Smith-Njigba exceeds expectations as a rookie, he and Boyd offer some depth and "flex" options.
The reality is that when you draft with a group this sharp, there are no bargains. Odds are come the draft's end you won't love your team.
But I don't hate it either—and that's something.
View the whole draft board here.
Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on Twitter at @IDPSharks.
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