5 NFL Teams Most Likely to Disappoint in 2023
August is a time of optimism for just about every NFL franchise. While a few clubs are mired in a rebuild and extremely unlikely to contend in 2023, most fans are heading into the new campaign with the belief that their team has a viable path to winning a Super Bowl.
That will quickly change once the meaningful action gets underway in a few weeks. Roster flaws will be quickly exposed, injuries will mount and only a handful of contenders will be left standing at the conclusion of a grueling 17-game schedule.
Even some of the projected best teams could find themselves hanging on by a thread or even out of the playoff picture by season's end. It's difficult to remain a consistent force in this parity-driven league, and the combined negative effects from aging rosters, salary-cap constraints and lower draft picks could cause these clubs to take a step back in 2023.
With that in mind, here's a look at five teams predicted to finish over .500—courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook's win projections—that will come up short this season.
Baltimore Ravens
1 of 5
2023 Win Projection: 10.5
The Baltimore Ravens may have celebrated this summer when they finally inked Lamar Jackson to a contract extension, but the good vibes could sour if the quarterback doesn't lead this team back into contention.
Jackson has been unable to finish either of the last two campaigns because of injuries, resulting in his Ravens missing a playoff berth in 2021 and quickly getting eliminated in the wild-card round last season. His health and production will be crucial for Baltimore to live up to its lofty win projection in 2023.
The Ravens front office did its best to provide Jackson with more weapons this year as well. After going into last season with one of the league's weakest receiving corps, team brass brought in both a proven pass-catcher in Odell Beckham Jr. and a young prospect brimming with talent in first-round pick Zay Flowers.
The two will augment incumbent No. 1 wideout Rashod Bateman to form one of the better receiving corps out there. Health is still a big factor at this position, though, as Bateman has only played in 18 of a possible 34 games since entering the league and Beckham just missed the entire 2022 season with knee issues.
While the receivering overhaul was welcome, it will be difficult for Baltimore to max out its passing effectiveness if the ground game isn't firing on all cylinders. That will be easier said than done if top back J.K. Dobbins continues to be plagued by injuries. Dobbins missed the entire 2021 campaign and over half of last season with ailments.
With other key pieces such as starting left tackle Ronnie Stanley consistently banged up, there's a lot that needs to go right for Baltimore to have a good year. While it's certainly possible this group largely stays healthy and matches or even exceeds projections, it seems more likely that an injury or two will submarine the Ravens' 2023 season.
Buffalo Bills
2 of 5
2023 Win Projection: 10.5
The Buffalo Bills have been one of the most consistent teams over the last half-decade and entered each of the last few seasons as one of the Super Bowl favorites, but they've underwhelmed down the stretch and failed to break through in each of them.
After making just a single AFC Championship Game appearance in five postseason trips since ending a 17-year playoff drought in 2017, the Bills could be sliding back toward irrelevance soon.
While they still have one of the NFL's best quarterbacks in Josh Allen, the rest of the roster is starting to show its age and may soon sharply decline. The defense is relying on numerous players on the wrong side of 30, including star safety duo Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde.
Top edge-rusher Von Miller is entering his age 34 campaign and is in danger of a drop-off, especially after his 2022 season was cut short with an ACL tear. Miller isn't the only key Buffalo defender who has been dealing with serious injuries, as star corner Tre'Davious White has been sidelined for 17 games over the last two years.
The Bills suffered a notable loss in free agency as well after parting ways with athletic linebacker Tremaine Edmunds. His sideline-to-sideline speed was instrumental in covering up defensive lapses. The team failed to make any splashes on the open market to replace him.
Buffalo's only signings of note were reinforcing the interior of the offensive line with guard Connor McGovern and providing some insurance against another Miller injury and/or his decline by inking veteran edge-rusher Leonard Floyd.
Buffalo's most high-profile addition was first-round tight end Dalton Kincaid. While he'll add a new edge to the offense with his elite pass-catching skills, the team still has some glaring holes left unaddressed.
The club failed to make any quality additions to an offensive backfield that stalled out in the playoffs—just swapping one middling veteran for another by bringing in Damien Harris to replace Devin Singletary—and still has a receiving corps that looks thin after failing to bring in a star such as DeAndre Hopkins to augment Stefon Diggs.
This club simply doesn't seem any better than the one that barely made it past Wild Card Weekend last year and was decimated in the divisional round. While the Bills may still have enough left in the tank to reach the playoffs again, it's going to be tough for them to win 11 games, let alone make noise in the postseason if they do get there.
Cleveland Browns
3 of 5
2023 Win Projection: 9.5
The Cleveland Browns will finally have a chance to see if their exorbitantly expensive trade for Deshaun Watson was worth it. The club didn't get a real opportunity to evaluate the three-time Pro Bowler after the league handed down an 11-game suspension for violating the NFL's personal-conduct policy last summer. He returned to start the final six games of the campaign, leading the team to a .500 record in those contests while posting a concerning 58.2 percent completion rate and throwing seven touchdowns against five interceptions.
Those numbers will need to drastically improve for the Browns to contend this year. While Watson certainly displayed the skill in the past to do so—he completed over 70 percent of his throws for 4,823 yards and 33 touchdowns against a mere seven interceptions in 2020, his last season with the Houston Texans—it remains to be seen if he can replicate those successes in Cleveland. Unfortunately, his top receivers aren't as talented as the ones he worked with in Houston. An aging Amari Cooper and inconsistent Elijah Moore simply aren't on the same level as an in-his-prime DeAndre Hopkins and healthy Will Fuller IV.
The ground game will rely heavily on Nick Chubb to shoulder the load. While Chubb answered the call last year by turning in his greatest season yet, the mileage is starting to add up on the four-time Pro Bowler. Chubb logged 329 touches last year—tied for the fourth-most in the NFL—while having a proven backup in Kareem Hunt working behind him. With Hunt now gone, the Browns will task 2022 fifth-round pick Jerome Ford with picking up the small amount of backfield work not getting allocated towards their starter. If Chubb gets hurt, the Browns will have to ask a player who totaled a mere 12 yards on his eight carries as a rookie to take over a major part of their offense..
While Cleveland looks excellent on defense after making savvy offseason moves to bring in established talent like Dalvin Tomlinson, Za'Darius Smith and Juan Thornhill, the offense will still need to make a leap to reach this double-digit win projection. If Watson doesn't get back to his Texans form—which is far from guaranteed after such a long layoff from meaningful action and his shaky return last year—2023 could be yet another in a long line of disappointing seasons for this organization.
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New Orleans Saints
4 of 5
2023 Win Projection: 9.5
The New Orleans Saints have a few clear advantages on their side heading into the 2023 season. The biggest is that they play in arguably the weakest division in football that is wide-open for the taking, as the NFC South lacks a clear-cut contender right now. They also seemingly upgraded the quarterback position, signing Derek Carr to take over as the starter after Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston managed to lead the club to a 7-10 record last year.
It's not a lock that Carr will be the high-end passer this club has coveted since Drew Brees retired following the 2020 campaign, however. The former Las Vegas Raiders starter may have earned the most recent of his four Pro Bowl nods last year, but Carr didn't come close to meeting preseason expectations set for his offense. Even with Davante Adams joining the lineup after a blockbuster trade, the quarterback only completed a concerning 60.8 percent of his passes for 3,522 yards and 24 touchdowns against 14 interceptions. It was a steep drop from the 68.4 completion rate and 4,804 passing yards with the same number of interceptions he posted in 2021.
The woeful showing eventually cost Carr his job. Head coach Josh McDaniels informed Carr that the team would be going another direction down the stretch, leading the 32-year-old to step away and eventually get released. The Saints were happy to capitalize on that surprise availability by signing Carr to a four-year, $150 million deal, but it's going to be tough for the quarterback to live up to the hype if last year's performance is any indication of his current skills.
Carr was unable to make strides despite having arguably the best set of offensive weapons surrounding him in his career. Josh Jacobs earned the rushing crown for his efforts out of the backfield and Adams joined a group of pass-catchers that also featured a great possession receiver in Hunter Renfrow and a solid tight end in Darren Waller. The 2023 Saints simply don't have that type of skill position talent, even with Chris Olave emerging as one of the NFL's better up-and-coming wideouts and Michael Thomas potentially becoming a factor again if he can stay healthy.
With divisional rivals like the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers getting ready to emerge from their rebuilds thanks to young rosters loaded with exciting talent, the Saints could fall flat in the NFC South and fail to even reach the .500 mark this year.
New York Jets
5 of 5
2023 Win Projection: 9.5
No team seems to be feeling the weight of massive expectations more than the New York Jets. The squad had its playoff aspirations dashed last year by the pitiful play of young quarterback Zach Wilson, leading Gang Green to execute a blockbuster trade for Aaron Rodgers.
With the future Hall of Famer now under center, this organization is entering an era when anything shy of a Super Bowl ring will be a disappointment.
Before the Jets can lift the Lombardi Trophy, they'll have to end the league's longest active playoff drought. It's been 12 years since the team last reached the postseason and over five decades since it both made and won its lone Super Bowl.
There is a long history of ineptitude surrounding this franchise, a trend Rodgers will be tasked with reversing during the short number of years he likely has left in the league. Given his declining play last year and some of the roster issues the Jets are facing, it's far from guaranteed this group will even reach the playoffs, let alone raise a banner.
Rodgers completed just 64.6 percent of his throws for 3,695 yards and 26 touchdowns last year. It was a far cry from his back-to-back MVP seasons in 2020-21, a period when he averaged 4,207 passing yards and 42.5 touchdowns while completing almost 70 percent of his passes.
Rodgers also had an interception rate of 2.2 percent last year, his highest since an injury-shortened 2017 campaign. From 2018 to 2021, his interception rate never exceeded 1.0 percent. It appears that all that wear-and-tear may be finally catching up with the signal-caller as he tries to join Tom Brady and Peyton Manning as the only quarterbacks in league history to win a championship at the age of 39 or older.
While Rodgers hasn't missed a significant amount of time since a broken collarbone cost him nine games in 2017, the Jets may be gambling on his health with their offensive line setup. The team's starting offensive tackles are a concern, with Duane Brown steeply declining last year and Mekhi Becton having seen action in just one game since the start of the 2021 season. These two will be the most pivotal pieces in keeping Rodgers unscathed, but neither inspires much confidence with their recent performances.
Given the Jets fared well enough on defense—rating in the top five for both yards and points allowed—to keep the team competitive last year, it's up to Rodgers and the offense to take this group to new heights. While that would have been a slam dunk for the superstar a couple of years ago, it's now a toss-up based on his recent regression and potential offensive line woes.
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