Predicting How the Toronto Maple Leafs Will Play in January

It's the start of a new calendar year, which for NHL fans means nearly the midway point of the season. It has been an up-and-down year so far for the Toronto Maple Leafs. They started off very strong and actually held the top spot in the East for a few weeks.

But December was not kind to them at all. They got their No. 1 goalie back, but it hasn't helped out. They won just four games all month and find themselves on the outside of the playoff race. Their weak penalty kill was exposed and most teams took full advantage.

I thought the Leafs would have been able to go 8-2-3 but unfortunately they went 4-7-2, which only earned them 10 points. If the Maple Leafs are to make the playoffs this year, they need a huge turnaround immediately. It looked like things were getting better just before the Christmas break, but it all went downhill shortly after.

It looks like January will be a tough month based on the Leafs' opponents and the Leafs' recent play. But if they suddenly and almost magically get hot at some point this month, they may be able to get back into the race for not only a playoff spot, but a shot at the division.

Let's take a look at how the Leafs should play this month.

Tuesday, Jan. 3rd Toronto vs. Tampa Bay

The Maple Leafs need to start off the new year right, and that means with a win. The last time these two teams met, the Leafs won 7-1 in Tampa. They put four pucks past starter Dwayne Roloson in the first two periods and put another three past his backup in the third.

The Leafs will need to start out this game like they did the last one, and come out firing. If they can get to Roloson early they should be able to pull out a victory. Although Tampa has some momentum after winning their last three, the Leafs will be playing at home and Ron Wilson will be on the hot seat if he can't secure a win in four tries after getting his contract extension.

Leafs' record after this game: 19-15-5

Thursday, Jan. 5th Toronto vs. Winnipeg

The Jets make their second appearance at Air Canada Centre, less than a week after the Leafs lost in their first appearance in Winnipeg in over 18 years.

It was a New Year's Eve disaster for the Leafs who couldn't find a way to beat Ondrej Pavlic in the third period when they were given so many opportunities. With the season series tied at one game apiece, the Leafs will have to use home ice to their advantage and capitalize on the mistakes they made last week.

The way this series has gone so far, the home team has come out with the victory each time. Staying with that train of thought, the Maple Leafs will need to realize the Jets are starting to get hot, and in fact they just stole their playoff spot from them. The Leafs should be hungry to get it back, and they will have the advantage of not having been on the road in over a week.

Leafs' record after this game: 20-15-5

Saturday, Jan. 7th Toronto vs. Detroit

An Original Six rivalry takes centre stage on Hockey Night in Canada when the Maple Leafs welcome the Red Wings. So far this season the Red Wings are their usual powerhouse team. They currently hold down the fourth-place spot in the Western Conference.

The one thing that would be working in the Maple Leafs' favour is the fact that the Red Wings are just 9-11-0 away from Joe Louis Arena. This could change in a hurry though, as the Red Wings are very rarely below .500 in any category. The Leafs will need to play at the top of their game and even that might not be enough.

Leafs' record after this game: 20-16-5

Tuesday, Jan. 10th Toronto vs. Buffalo

It will be the third time these two teams meet in the span of five weeks. The Maple Leafs beat the Sabres at home last time 3-2. If the Leafs can once again repeat this kind of performance they should be able to pick up their third win in four games.

It will depend on how Sabres goaltender Ryan Miller performs. He can steal a game away at any minute if he gets hot. The Leafs will need to put the pressure on him early, and play good defense.

The Sabres are starting to get their full roster back and will be a dangerous team again soon, but the Leafs will need to take advantage while they can.

Leafs' record after this game: 21-16-5

Friday, Jan. 13th Toronto at Buffalo

Can anyone say rematch?

The Leafs will be on the road for the first time in 2012 in an arena that has not been kind to them recently. For some reason, when the Leafs go to Buffalo they look lost. Ryan Miller always plays well, and the Leafs can't seem to find a way to win.

I see this process continuing. The Sabres and Leafs will be very aware of what the other team is trying to do after having played just two days prior. It's in the Leafs' nature that they unfortunately become relaxed against a team they have recently beaten. It's also in their nature to not be able to win in Buffalo.

They will need Ryan Miller to have an off night and then get lucky, it seems, in order for them to get that win. I don't see it happening with a healthy Miller in net.

Leafs' record after this game: 21-17-5

Saturday, Jan. 14th Toronto vs. New York Rangers

Another Original Six matchup on Hockey Night in Canada. The Leafs will play on back-to-back nights against a different team from the same state. The Maple Leafs have already beaten the Rangers 4-2 twice this year, both at Madison Square Garden.

What's strange is that the Rangers have only lost two other games in regulation at MSG this year, which is a reason to why they are in first place in the East. What's stranger is that the Leafs had Jonas Gustavsson in net beating fellow Swede Henrik Lundqvist both times. Sometimes one team just can't seem to solve another. I have a feeling that will change on this date.

The Rangers should be able to come into the ACC and secure a win against a Leafs team going on back-to-back nights. The Rangers are 13-6-2 away from the Gardens and I can see that record improving after this game.

Leafs' record after this game: 21-18-5

Tuesday, Jan. 17th Toronto vs. Ottawa

The Battle of Ontario resumes on this night as the Senators come to town. The Sens actually hold the lead in the season series 2-1. They have also put up 13 goals in the three meetings, while the Leafs have managed 10.

The Senators can't seem to find much consistency this year though. They started off cold, got hot, went cold again and so forth. They are on a hot streak right now, going 7-3-0 in their last 10. But this game is two weeks from now and they could get cold again.

Whether the Leafs face the hot- or cold-streaking Senators, one thing for sure is that they won't be a pushover. The Leafs will need to battle hard against a team that has passed them in the division standings. After two days off with no travel, the Leafs should be re-energized and looking to end a two-game losing streak, according to these predictions.

Leafs' record after this game: 22-18-5

Thursday, Jan. 19 Toronto vs. Minnesota

The surprising Minnesota Wild come to town on this date for their only meeting of the season. The Wild got off to a very hot start and have since fallen to fifth place in the West. They are currently on a down slide, but again, anything can happen between now and the time this game takes place.

The Wild have a good road record of 10-7-3. I think the Leafs may be caught off guard by this team and will suffer a loss.

Leafs' record after this game: 22-19-5

Saturday, Jan. 21st Toronto vs. Montreal

It seems Original Six matchups are the theme for Hockey Night in Canada in January. The Leafs and Canadiens hook up for the third time this year. The Leafs have had the Habs' number this year, winning a shutout on opening night and then a 5-4 OT thriller a few weeks later on Mikhail Grabovski's beautiful backhand goal in La Belle Province.

The Canadiens are in last place in the Northeast division; they are only three spots away from the Eastern basement, and are just 9-11-1 away from home. The Maple Leafs need to start beating the weaker teams, especially when they are at home. Look for the Leafs to repeat their opening-night performance against the Habs.

Leafs' record after this game: 23-19-5

Monday, Jan. 23rd Toronto vs. New York Islanders

Speaking of beating the weaker teams, the Islanders are the last-place team in the conference. This will be the last of five straight home games for the Leafs and they would like to finish with a bang. Beating the Islanders in convincing fashion would do just that.

They beat them in Long Island last month 5-3 and while that may look good in the box score, the fact is the Leafs let the Islanders stay in that game, when they should have put them away. If the Leafs can repeat what they did well in that game, then this should be another two points.

Leafs' record after this game: 24-19-5

Tuesday, Jan. 24th Toronto at New York Islanders

The second road game of the month is also the second back-to-back affair for the Leafs. Again, the Islanders are a weak team and the Leafs should dominate for all the previous reasons. For some reason though, I have a feeling the Leafs may not be able to beat them in two straight games.

I do think they will be able to secure at least one point.

Leafs' record after this game: 24-19-6

Tuesday, Jan. 31st Toronto at Pittsburgh

This will be the first game after the All-Star break. It will officially mark the midway point of the year and the beginning of the stretch drive towards the playoffs.

The Maple Leafs will be facing the Penguins for the first time this year. Both teams should be well-rested and both will be looking to start the next phase of the season with a win. The Penguins have played above .500 at home and have played well against their own conference. I can see the Leafs getting off on the wrong foot post-All-Star break and they will need a good wake-up call in order to bounce back.

Leafs' record after this game: 24-20-6

Wrap-Up

If the Maple Leafs can obtain this type of record it would give them 54 points. Right now, the Rangers lead the conference with 52 points, and the Bruins lead the division with 49 points. This means the Leafs will need to play either at this level or better and have those teams falter a little bit if the Leafs are intent on catching them.

Right now the focus should be getting back into a playoff position and then continue the climb.

Can the Leafs play above .500 in the month of January? A record of 6-5-1 isn't great, but based on their recent play it would look much better. The Leafs need to show the rest of the league their hot start wasn't a fluke, and get back to being one of the better teams in the league. A 6-5-1 record in January won't completely accomplish that, but it would pave the way for a stronger finish.