B/R College Football 2023 Betting Locks with Adam Kramer: Win Totals
At long last, we have a blank slate.
With a fresh college football season approaching— words that are spectacular to type—every team, no matter the offseason, has nothing but promise in front of it.
That, of course, will change in short order. Expectations will give way for actual results. Teams with promise will fall flat, while others will surprise.
Along the way, Locks of the Week will be there. This yearly college football is ready for another year of finding value, picking winners and exploring various wagering options surrounding college football.
Oh, we will break down games. That will come soon enough, starting with Week 0. We will look to deliver winners each and every week after that until a champion is decided. But to kickoff our preseason coverage, we're zeroing in on win totals.
The name of the game is simple: will a team go over or under their projected number of wins?
We have thoughts—many of them, in fact. And as our preseason content commences, we're ready to dive in.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings and accurate as of Wednesday, July 25th.
Wisconsin Over 8.5 (-130)
The Wisconsin program you know and love is no more, and I mean that in the best possible way.
Enter Luke Fickell, the best hire of the offseason. The former Cincinnati head coach now calls Madison home, and he's bringing help with him. His new offensive coordinator, Phil Longo, wants to move fast. Add in a slew of interesting QBs, led by transfer, Tanner Mordecai, and the entire attack should look very different.
They're loaded at running back, led by Braelon Allen. If he stays healthy, he'll deliver a special season. They're also experienced at wideout. Simply put, there's just a ton to like.
The schedule is also favorable. The Badgers' road games are as follows: Washington State, Purdue, Illinois, Indiana and Minnesota. They play Ohio State at home. Oh, and they don't play Michigan or Penn State.
If it all comes together, this has the feel of a 10-win team.
USC Under 10 (-120)
To be clear, Caleb Williams is more than capable of making this under look foolish. Let's get that out of the way right now. He's that good.
Let's also talk about the rest of the offense, which should be excellent once again. The wideout group is deep, and the transfer portal was good to Lincoln Riley yet again. This team should score quickly and often.
So, why are we doing this?
The defense is likely to remain a sizable work in progress, and that's being kind. After leaning heavily on turnovers through much of the year, the Trojans allowed 93 points in their last two games of the season.
There have been some new additions thanks in part to the portal, although it just doesn't feel like enough. And the schedule, which features road games at Notre Dame and Oregon along with home games against Utah, Washington and UCLA could present some issues.
I still like this team. I just don't like it to win 11 games.
Texas Over 9.5 (-140)
I'm going to warn you. This is the first of a handful of pro-Texas plays that are likely to surface in the coming weeks.
Sure, we must lay the juice to get this number. But -140 isn't enough to scare me off. This is a Texas team with talent and a schedule that should produce the type of season many have been waiting for.
Has that been stated before? Indeed!
But if you can distance yourself from the narrative surrounding a program in constant search of being back and instead focus in on the pieces, you'll like what you see.
At quarterback, Quinn Ewers should take a massive leap. We saw a glimpse of what he was capable of against Alabama last year. With a plethora of great wideouts to throw to, he has a chance to rapidly ascend. Having an experienced offensive line should also help.
A road trip to Alabama in early September won't be easy, but it gets much easier from there. The Longhorns play at Baylor, at Houston, at TCU and at Iowa State. They also play Oklahoma on a neutral field.
Narratives say we shouldn't love this team. I'll say otherwise.
Michigan State Under 5.5 (-165)
Woof.
That is how I would describe this Michigan State schedule. It opens with cozy games against Central Michigan and Richmond, which should give the team a 2-0 start.
From there, well, it takes a turn.
Sparty plays Washington, Michigan, at Ohio State and Penn State—four teams that should start the season ranked in the top 12. Michigan State also plays at Iowa and at Minnesota, which aren't easy places to win football games.
Outside of those first two weeks, nothing is a gimmie on this schedule.
The team will also look quite different thanks to an exodus through the transfer portal. The losses of quarterback Payton Thone and wideout Keon Coleman, in particular, feel sizable in nature.
The end result is an inexperienced team—outside the offensive line—that has a rather turbulent path to bowl eligibility. I just don't see it getting there.
Oregon State Over 8.5 (+120)
A season ago, the Beavers finished 10-3. Two of those losses came by a combined six points.
The offense that delivered that success largely returns. In fact, with the addition of Clemson transfer quarterback, DJ Uiagalelei, it likely will be better. The offensive line is rock solid, the running backs are excellent and the team really is a force from top to the bottom.
The concern is whether the defense can keep up, and it'll need to find help at both linebacker and in the secondary.
Even still, this team feels good for nine wins. The Beavers toughest road trips are at Washington State and Oregon. They get Utah, UCLA and Washington at home, which is an enormous boost. This is not an easy place to play, and that theme should extend into this season.
While the Pac-12 is a deep, talented league, it would not shock me whatsoever to see Oregon State in the mix to win the conference title.
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