Elly De La Cruz, Kodai Senga and 2023 MLB Rookie Rankings For 2nd Half
Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll and Texas Rangers third baseman Josh Jung were both voted to start the All-Star Game, and both young standouts are still the front-runners to win Rookie of the Year honors in their respective leagues.
However, they are far from the only first-year standouts here in 2023, as this is one of the deepest and most talented crops of rookies in recent MLB history.
The previous editions of our rookie rankings were published on May 1 and June 1, and here in mid-July it's time for another update. These rankings will be updated each month throughout the season, with rookies rising and falling based on their recent performances.
Future expectations, long-term upside, preseason prospect rankings and minor league track records were not a factor in these rankings. The sole focus is 2023 production.
Honorable Mentions
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Pitchers
LHP Brennan Bernardino, BOS
RHP Taj Bradley, TB
LHP Tom Cosgrove, SD
RHP Ian Hamilton, NYY
RHP Kevin Kelly, TB
RHP Scott McGough, ARI
RHP Bobby Miller, LAD
RHP Gregory Santos, CWS
RHP Justin Topa, SEA
RHP Gavin Williams, CLE
RHP Bryan Woo, SEA
Rough patches from Taj Bradley (7.18 ERA in last seven starts) and Bobby Miller (7.36 ERA in last five starts) knocked both promising young pitchers out of the rankings for the time being, but they could both be a major factor in the rotation for contending teams with World Series aspirations.
Hitters
3B Brett Baty, NYM
OF Will Brennan, CLE
IF José Caballero, SEA
1B Triston Casas, BOS
OF Henry Davis, PIT
C Freddy Fermin, KC
OF Dominic Fletcher, ARI
3B Maikel Garcia, KC
OF Corey Julks, HOU
3B Royce Lewis, MIN
OF James Outman, LAD
OF Esteury Ruiz, OAK
C/OF Blake Sabol, SF
2B Brice Turang, MIL
OF Jordan Walker, STL
OF Joey Wiemer, MIL
Jordan Walker has solid offensive numbers (111 OPS+, 17 XBH, 26 RBI), but some of the worst defensive metrics (-14 DRS, -20.4 UZR/150) of any outfielder drag down his overall value. On the flip side, Joey Wiemer has stellar defensive metrics (5 DRS, 18.4 UZR/150), but has struggled at the plate (84 OPS+, .204 BA, 28.2 K%). Both still have the potential to be future stars in the NL Central.
Nos. 25-21
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25. LHP Tyler Holton, Detroit Tigers (Previous Rank: HM)
Stats: 31 G, 4 HLD, 1.81 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, 49.2 IP, 1.6 WAR
Holton is one of only 13 relievers with at least 30 appearances and a sub-2.00 ERA, and his 49.2 innings pitched are the most of anyone in that group. The 27-year-old was claimed off waivers from the Arizona Diamondbacks in February.
24. C/DH Yainer Diaz, Houston Astros (Previous Rank: NR)
Stats: 202 PA, 111 OPS+, .267/.287/.487, 22 XBH (10 HR), 23 RBI, 1.2 WAR
Diaz has seen semi-regular action backing up 36-year-old Martín Maldonado behind the plate and filling in for the injured Yordan Alvarez at designated hitter. The 24-year-old has always been viewed as a bat-first catcher, but he has also thrown out 10 of 25 base stealers while tallying four DRS behind the plate.
23. C Patrick Bailey, San Francisco Giants (Previous Rank: NR)
Stats: 167 PA, 109 OPS+, .276/.309/.462, 18 XBH (5 HR), 29 RBI, 1.4 WAR
The stalled development of former top prospect Joey Bart opened the door for Bailey to get a look in the starting catcher role, and he has seized the opportunity. The 2020 first-round pick would rank even higher if not for a recent slump that has seen him go 6-for-41 with 14 strikeouts in July, and now he needs to prove he can make the necessary adjustments.
22. SS Zach Neto, Los Angeles Angels (Previous Rank: 14)
Stats: 224 PA, 103 OPS+, .249/.327/.421, 20 XBH (7 HR), 26 RBI, 1.6 WAR
Neto missed 21 games leading up to the All-Star break with an oblique strain, but he returned to kick off the second half. The No. 13 overall pick in the 2022 draft is still just a little over a year removed from playing college baseball, and all signs point to him being a fixture at shortstop for the Angels in the coming seasons.
21. RHP Hunter Brown, Houston Astros (Previous Rank: 4)
Stats: 18 GS, 6-7, 4.26 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 33 BB, 118 K, 99.1 IP, 1.0 WAR
Brown was baseball's best rookie pitcher for much of the first half, but he has struggled to a 7.13 ERA and 1.71 WHIP while allowing a .327 opponents' batting average over his last five starts. His ERA has climbed by nearly a full run during that time, and getting him back on track will be one of the keys to success for the Astros in the second half.
Nos. 20-16
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20. RHP J.P. France, Houston Astros (Previous Rank: HM)
Stats: 12 GS, 4-3, 3.31 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 21 BB, 50 K, 70.2 IP, 1.2 WAR
A 14th-round pick in 2018 out of Mississippi State, France is the latest pitcher to emerge as an impact contributor for the Astros after never appearing on leaguewide top prospect lists in the minors. The 28-year-old is one of baseball's older rookies, and a fastball that ranks in the 94th percentile in spin rate is the key to his success.
19. 1B Ryan Noda, Oakland Athletics (Previous Rank: 13)
Stats: 341 PA, 128 OPS+, .229/.375/.418, 29 XBH (11 HR), 38 RBI, 1.7 WAR
Claimed off waivers from the Los Angeles Dodgers last December, Noda has been one of the few bright spots on the Oakland roster. The 27-year-old has an AL-leading 60 walks, and he ranks sixth among qualified AL hitters with a .375 on-base percentage. His ability to set the table would be far more impactful on a more capable offensive team.
18. SS/3B Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds (Previous Rank: NR)
Stats: 156 PA, 106 OPS+, .288/.327/.459, 15 XBH (4 HR), 16 RBI, 0.6 WAR
De La Cruz was a tough one to rank. Statistically, he is ahead of several players with better overall numbers, but the impact he has made on Cincinnati's season stretches beyond his individual performance. The Reds were 27-33 on June 6 when he made his MLB debut, and they are 23-12 since he joined the roster. That's not a coincidence.
17. C Francisco Álvarez, New York Mets (Previous Rank: 5)
Stats: 238 PA, 127 OPS+, .242/.303/.534, 26 XBH (19 HR), 39 RBI, 1.4 WAR
After closing out the month of May on a tear to climb to No. 5 in our June rankings, Álvarez crashed back to earth in June with a .151/.205/.329 line and 28.2 percent strikeout rate in 24 games. That said, he still leads all catchers with 19 home runs, and his 11.5 at-bats per home run would be tops in the NL if he qualified for the leaderboard.
16. RHP Bryce Miller, Seattle Mariners (Previous Rank: 11)
Stats: 12 GS, 6-3, 3.66 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 13 BB, 58 K, 64.0 IP, 0.9 WAR
Miller has leveled off a bit since posting a brilliant 1.15 ERA in 31.1 innings over his first five starts, but his 0.97 WHIP still ranks No. 1 among all starting pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched. The 24-year-old has allowed just 49 hits in 64 innings, and 11 of those came in one ugly outing across 4.2 innings against the New York Yankees on May 29.
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Nos. 15-11
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15. 2B Edouard Julien, Minnesota Twins (Previous Rank: NR)
Stats: 167 PA, 153 OPS+, .308/.380/.548, 19 XBH (8 HR), 15 RBI, 1.3 WAR
Julien turned heads when he hit .400/.563/.686 across 96 plate appearances in the Arizona Fall League last year, and with Jorge Polanco nursing a hamstring injury, he has emerged as Minnesota's starting second baseman. The 24-year-old is hitting .369/.432/.619 in 95 plate appearances since he was recalled from the minors on June 10.
14. LHP Logan Allen, Cleveland Guardians (Previous Rank: 12)
Stats: 13 GS, 4-2, 3.21 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 25 BB, 71 K, 67.1 IP, 1.4 WAR
After racking up 177 strikeouts in 132.2 innings in the upper levels of the Cleveland system in 2022, Allen has been a staple in a banged up MLB rotation. His batted-ball data is middling and his 1.37 WHIP is far from elite, but it's hard to argue with the bottom-line results. He tossed five shutout innings of one-hit ball against the Pittsburgh Pirates in his first start of the second half on Tuesday.
13. RHP Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians (Previous Rank: 7)
Stats: 14 GS, 5-2, 3.32 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 28 BB, 77 K, 76.0 IP, 1.5 WAR
Despite a slightly higher ERA, Bibee has the better peripheral numbers of Cleveland's two rookie starters, and his strong 6'2", 205-pound frame is also better suited to handle a starter's workload over a full season. That will be worth monitoring as the Guardians try to contend with Allen, Bibee and fellow rookie Gavin Williams all filling spots in the rotation.
12. SS Ezequiel Tovar, Colorado Rockies (Previous Rank: 20)
Stats: 337 PA, 86 OPS+, .263/.297/.431, 33 XBH (9 HR), 46 RBI, 1.7 WAR
Tovar is settling in nicely as Colorado's everyday shortstop, and June was his best month of the season at the plate as he hit .323/.333/.552 with five doubles, five home runs and 17 RBI in 99 plate appearances. Still only 21 years old, he ranks sixth in total defensive value among all qualified shortstops, and he could be a perennial Gold Glove candidate.
11. SS Anthony Volpe, New York Yankees (Previous Rank: 22)
Stats: 360 PA, 82 OPS+, .209/.281/.378, 26 XBH (13 HR), 34 RBI, 1.9 WAR
Casual fans will look at Volpe's .209 average and write off his rookie season as a flop, but that doesn't tell an accurate story of his overall value. The 22-year-old has provided a nice mix of power (13 HR) and speed (16 SB), he is one of baseball's most valuable base runners, and his defense at shortstop (8 DRS, 3.5 UZR/150) has been rock solid.
Nos. 10-6
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10. LHP Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds (Previous Rank: NR)
Stats: 8 GS, 4-2, 2.45 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 16 BB, 51 K, 47.2 IP, 2.2 WAR
Abbott leads all rookie starters with 2.2 WAR since making his MLB debut on June 5, and he has recorded six quality starts in eight outings. With four quality pitches he has generated a 27.3 percent strikeout rate, and while his 4.35 FIP and batted-ball metrics do indicate some regression to come, he should be a rotation staple for years to come.
9. RHP Yennier Cano, Baltimore Orioles (Previous Rank: 9)
Stats: 39 G, 4 SV, 21 HLD, 1.61 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 2.2 WAR
Cano earned an All-Star selection for his out-of-nowhere dominance out of the Baltimore bullpen, and he has been a steady bridge to closer Félix Bautista all season. He has limited opposing hitters to a .219 average and .568 OPS on the year, allowing only 11 extra-base hits in 168 plate appearances.
8. RHP Eury Pérez, Miami Marlins (Previous Rank: 16)
Stats: 11 GS, 5-3, 2.36 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 17 BB, 61 K, 53.1 IP, 1.9 WAR
Pérez has already pitched a career-high 84.1 innings between Triple-A and the majors this year, and the Marlins will keep a close eye on his workload the rest of the way. The 20-year-old was optioned back to the minors in early July to help limit his innings, but he'll be back in the majors before too long. The 6'8", 220-pound future ace has averaged 97.6 mph with his fastball and generated elite whiff rates with his slider (42.4%), curveball (58.8%) and changeup (51.4%).
7. SS Matt McLain, Cincinnati Reds (Previous Rank: 17)
Stats: 256 PA, 131 OPS+, .302/.367/.513, 29 XBH (8 HR), 30 RBI, 2.3 WAR
McLain hit .348/.474/.710 with 25 extra-base hits in 38 games at Triple-A to force his way into the MLB picture, and he has not missed a beat since making the jump. Despite spending the first 40 games of the season in the minors, his 2.3 WAR ranks eighth among all shortstops across baseball.
6. SS/3B Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles (Previous Rank: HM)
Stats: 328 PA, 123 OPS+, .246/.341/.463, 30 XBH (14 HR), 40 RBI, 2.4 WAR
After a slow start, Henderson is hitting .298/.354/.573 with nine home runs and 26 RBI in 144 plate appearances since the beginning of June. The 22-year-old has taken over as the team's leadoff hitter in July, allowing Cedric Mullins to serve as more of a run producer in the middle of the lineup.
5. 1B/3B Spencer Steer, Cincinnati Reds
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Previous Rank: 6
Stats: 391 PA, 118 OPS+, .274/.363/.466, 35 XBH (14 HR), 51 RBI, 1.6 WAR
Spencer Steer has been a fixture in the Cincinnati Reds lineup since Opening Day, outperforming several more hyped rookies along the way.
The 25-year-old is splitting his time defensively between first base (58 games), third base (27 games) and left field (15 games), and with a .918 OPS with runners on base he has been a consistent run producer.
He ranks among the rookie leaders in hits (93, third), home runs (14, fourth), RBI (51, second) and total bases (158, fourth), and the deal to acquire him from the Minnesota Twins along with fellow top prospect Christian Encarnacion-Strand in exchange for Tyler Mahle last summer is shaping up to be an absolute steal.
4. OF Masataka Yoshida, Boston Red Sox
7 of 10
Previous Rank: 3
Stats: 358 PA, 135 OPS+, .318/.380/.503, 35 XBH (11 HR), 50 RBI, 1.9 WAR
Masataka Yoshida played seven seasons with the Orix Buffaloes in Japan before signing a five-year, $90 million deal with the Boston Red Sox during the offseason.
The 30-year-old has made a smooth transition to the big leagues, and his .318 average entering play on Wednesday puts him in a three-way tie with Bo Bichette and Yandy Díaz for the AL batting title lead.
Poor defensive metrics (-5 DRS, -3.0 UZR/150) have undercut his overall value, but his offensive game has still made him one of baseball's top rookies, and elite contact skills have put him among the MLB leaders in expected batting average (92nd percentile), strikeout rate (97th percentile) and whiff rate (91st percentile).
3. RHP Kodai Senga, New York Mets
8 of 10
Previous Rank: 10
Stats: 17 GS, 7-5, 3.20 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 49 BB, 122 K, 95.2 IP, 2.0 WAR
Not much has gone right for the New York Mets this season, but the five-year, $75 million deal they gave Japanese League standout Kodai Senga is turning out to be one of the steals of the offseason.
The 30-year-old has one of baseball's most lethal pitches with a disappearing forkball that has generated an absurd 60.1 percent whiff rate while accounting for 65 of his 122 strikeouts on the year.
He has been on a roll since racking up 12 strikeouts over six strong innings against the Tampa Bay Rays on May 17, posting a 2.61 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 79 strikeouts in 58.2 innings over his last 10 starts.
2. 3B Josh Jung, Texas Rangers
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Previous Rank: 2
Stats: 396 PA, 119 OPS+, .272/.323/.488, 40 XBH (19 HR), 58 RBI, 2.6 WAR
Josh Jung was the first Texas Rangers rookie ever and just the second rookie third baseman in MLB history to earn a starting nod in the All-Star Game when he edged out Toronto Blue Jays star Matt Chapman in the final voting results.
The 25-year-old has spent the bulk of the season hitting fifth in the lineup behind AL RBI leader Adolis García or he would have even better run production numbers for a loaded Texas offense that leads the majors with 5.82 runs per game.
Masataka Yoshida is having a terrific rookie season of his own, and Gunnar Henderson is making a strong late charge, but Jung is still the clear favorite for AL Rookie of the Year honors here in mid-July.
1. OF Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks
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Previous Rank: 1
Stats: 367 PA, 145 OPS+, .286/.362/.538, 42 XBH (18 HR), 50 RBI, 3.9 WAR
With 42 extra-base hits and 28 steals, Corbin Carroll has been one of baseball's most well-rounded offensive players this year, ranking second to Ronald Acuña Jr. in the power-speed metric at Baseball Reference.
He ranks in the 90th percentile in max exit velocity and 99th percentile in sprint speed, and he has been baseball's most valuable base runner, making a huge impact for a contending Arizona Diamondbacks team.
The NL All-Star Game starter is the runaway favorite for NL Rookie of the Year honors, and that eight-year, $111 million extension he signed in March is already shaping up to be an absolute steal.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and accurate through Tuesday's games.
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