Fact or Fiction: Deciding Which NFL Teams Will Break Playoff Drought in 2023

Heading into the 2023 NFL season, five teams have not reached the playoffs for a half-decade or longer. The Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Denver Broncos, Detroit Lions and New York Jets are all starved for a postseason appearance.

While none of these squads are close to breaking the all-time streak without a postseason berth—a dubious 25-year distinction that is shared among the Washington Commanders (1946-1971) and Arizona Cardinals (1949-1974)—it's still been a painful wait for fans of these franchises.

Fortunately, parity is thriving in the modern NFL. It's unlikely these teams will come anywhere close to a two-decade or longer drought thanks to the constant roster turnover created by free agency and the draft, as well as the salary-cap restrictions that prevent organizations from hoarding superstar players.

Some of these clubs may even break through as early as this year. With that in mind, it's time to play fact or fiction regarding these five teams ending their playoff droughts in 2023.

Atlanta Falcons

AP Photo/Brynn Anderson

Bijan Robinson

The Atlanta Falcons remain in rebuilding mode after they failed to unearth a franchise quarterback this offseason. The club didn't have a suitable heir in place for an aging Matt Ryan before shipping him off last year and likely still doesn't barring an unexpected breakout from 2022 third-round pick Desmond Ridder.

That's unfortunate, given just how much the team has invested into the wide receiver, tight end and running back positions in recent years. The Falcons employ some of the league's most promising up-and-coming skill position players in Drake London, Kyle Pitts and first-round rookie Bijan Robinson, but they lack the passer to truly unlock their collective potential.

Until the team finds a capable quarterback, the ceiling on this offense will be too low to compete with the league's best on a weekly basis.

Defensively, the Falcons should improve upon last year's disappointing performance. After allowing 362.1 yards per game and 22.7 points per game in 2022, Atlanta went after veteran pieces such as Jessie Bates III and David Onyemata on the open market and selected Zach Harrison and Clark Phillips III in the third and fourth rounds of the draft, respectively.

These may not be enough to push the Falcons into the league's upper echelon, but it should get them closer to the middle of the pack.

While Atlanta is loaded with rising stars on offense and boasts an improving defense, the lack of star power under center will be this team's undoing. Barring a drastic move, the team is in real danger of lingering in the NFL's version of purgatory, faring well enough to miss out on a top pick but not being strong enough to contend for the playoffs.

Fiction: The Falcons will not break their five-year playoff drought in 2023.

Carolina Panthers

AP Photo/Nell Redmond

Bryce Young

The Carolina Panthers were one of the more intriguing squads to follow last year. Despite an atrocious start that saw head coach Matt Rhule get fired after the team won just one of its first five contests, Carolina improbably rebounded and managed to stay in playoff contention until Week 17.

While that turnaround didn't help interim head coach Steve Wilks get the job Rhule vacated—the Panthers hired Frank Reich in the offseason to fill it—it still inspired some confidence in this group for 2023.

One of the biggest issues the Panthers had to contend with last season was a revolving door of ineffective quarterbacks. Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold and P.J. Walker all had their shot to prove they were the right man for the job, but none of them impressed in a meaningful way.

This led to Carolina's brass making an all-in move this offseason, putting together a package of early picks and shipping star wideout DJ Moore to the Chicago Bears in exchange for the No. 1 overall pick.

While the Panthers used that selection to get their quarterback of the future in Bryce Young, it would be a shock if the Alabama product can guide this squad to the playoffs in Year 1. The rookie not only has plenty of developmental struggles in his future, but the roster is also chock-full of holes that were hastily plugged with over-the-hill veterans and budget journeymen.

An aging Adam Thielen will be the team's top wideout in 2023, contending with the oft-injured DJ Chark Jr. and still-raw Terrace Marshall Jr. for looks. Hayden Hurst had a solid season with the Cincinnati Bengals last year, but the veteran tight end has never gone over 571 receiving yards or six scores in a season. Miles Sanders replaced D'Onta Foreman as the lead back, but the 26-year-old just had his first healthy season since his rookie year and is a big risk to miss more time.

There simply isn't enough firepower to contend here, even in an NFC South that looks wide-open.

Fiction: The Panthers will not break their five-year playoff drought in 2023.

Detroit Lions

AP Photo/Paul Sancya

Jahmyr Gibbs

After coming up just short last season, the Detroit Lions look ready to make their first playoff run in six years. The team kept most of its young core intact during the offseason and reloaded with a bunch of prospects who filled some of the roster's most pressing needs.

Although the Lions may not have pleased draft analysts with their use of first-round picks on running back Jahmyr Gibbs and linebacker Jack Campbell, these players both will have an opportunity to make waves from the jump.

Gibbs should play a key role in a backfield that lost both pass-catching specialist D'Andre Swift via trade and 2022 rushing touchdown leader Jamaal Williams in free agency. He'll team with veteran David Montgomery to form a potent platoon.

Campbell has the makeup of an off-ball linebacker who should shine both on the gridiron and in the locker room right away, having already drawn praise for his fit with the culture that head coach Dan Campbell has cultivated. The Iowa product could be an every-down starter from his rookie year until his retirement many years down the road, calling plays for the defense and making an impact all over the field.

Having the defense improve to even a league-average level will make Detroit a force to be reckoned with after the team finished 9-8 despite allowing an NFL-worst 392.4 yards per game last year. The Lions brought in a whole new crop of defensive backs to assist, including a trio of projected starters in Cameron Sutton, Emmanuel Moseley and C.J. Gardner-Johnson. Their presence should bolster a secondary that allowed the third-most yards through the air in 2022.

If the Lions can continue executing like the group that won eight of its last 10 games in 2022—and not the one that lost six of its first seven—they should be able to not only make the 16-team playoff field this year, but also lay claim to their first NFC North title since 1993.

Fact: The Lions will break their six-year playoff drought in 2023.

Denver Broncos

AP Photo/David Zalubowski

Russell Wilson

The Denver Broncos were a popular pick to emerge from the hyper-competitive AFC West last year thanks to their headline-grabbing trade for Russell Wilson. The nine-time Pro Bowler gave the team the star quarterback it had lacked since Peyton Manning's retirement after the 2015 season and hope to snap a playoff drought that had ticked up to six years heading into 2022.

That would not come to pass, however, as Wilson was clearly not a fit in new head coach Nathaniel Hackett's offense. After Wilson took a league-high 55 sacks and failed to generate much of anything—Denver finished the year averaging an abysmal 16.9 points per game, the lowest in the NFL—it was obvious the club needed to go in a different direction.

Given the hefty draft-capital costs of acquiring Wilson and the QB's enormous $107 million dead-cap hit for 2023, Hackett was the first to go as the Broncos elected to make a coaching change before the season even finished.

While Denver eventually gave up more draft capital to trade for one of the top head coaching candidates in Sean Payton, he may not be enough to push this group over the hump. The roster hasn't been reinforced with a first-round pick since 2021 and added just five prospects in total during the 2023 draft. The team didn't make any significant waves in free agency, with offensive tackle Mike McGlinchey being the most notable signing of the spring.

There's still a chance Wilson returns to his Seattle Seahawks form and helps this squad contend, but it hasn't gotten any easier in the division. The Kansas City Chiefs are coming off another Super Bowl win, the Los Angeles Chargers look even more dangerous on offense and even the Las Vegas Raiders could find a spark with new quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo in place.

Based on last year's performance and the lack of new talent, it's difficult to envision a scenario where this limited Denver roster breaks through this year, even as a wild-card team.

Fiction: The Broncos will not break their seven-year playoff drought in 2023.

New York Jets

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Aaron Rodgers

The New York Jets put one of the biggest missing pieces of their puzzle into place with the acquisition of Aaron Rodgers. The superstar gives them the quarterback they were sorely lacking in recent years after 2021 No. 2 overall pick Zach Wilson failed to pan out as expected. Rodgers may be on his last legs at age 39, but he's still one of the league's top quarterbacks at his best.

Gang Green certainly has the defensive capabilities to make a playoff run. Major contributions from shrewd draft picks such as cornerback Sauce Gardner and free-agent pickups like D.J. Reed helped transform New York into one of the dominant defensive forces in 2022.

The team did a complete 180 on that side of the ball last year, finishing as the No. 4 defense in terms of both scoring and yardage allowed, a stunning step up from 2021 when the squad ranked dead last in both categories.

With other strong offseason additions such as first-round edge defender Will McDonald IV and a pair of veteran wideouts in Mecole Hardman and Allen Lazard factored in for 2023, the Jets have one of the more well-rounded lineups out there.

Now that they'll be able to put some points on the board with Rodgers—the team only averaged 17.4 last year—there is every reason to believe Gang Green will break through and snap the league's longest active playoff drought.

Fact: The Jets will break their 12-year playoff drought in 2023.