Report: Sean Payton to Become Broncos HC; Saints Get 2023 1st-Round Pick in Trade

The Denver Broncos finalized a trade Tuesday with the New Orleans Saints that will allow them to hire Sean Payton as their next head coach, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport.

ESPN's Adam Schefter reported the Saints will receive a 2023 first-round pick (via San Francisco) and the Broncos' 2024 second-round pick. The Saints will also send their 2024 third-rounder to the Broncos.

According to Rapoport, the Broncos made a hard run at trying to hire former San Francisco 49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans before he committed to the Houston Texans:

Payton was arguably the most coveted target of this year's hiring cycle.

The 59-year-old compiled a 152-89 record in his 15 seasons with New Orleans. The Saints made nine playoff appearances during his tenure and won their first-ever Super Bowl title in 2009.

Payton's offensive expertise makes him an ideal candidate to get Russell Wilson back on track and salvage what's shaping up to be a disastrous decision by the Broncos.

On Dec. 26, one day after a 51-14 loss to the Los Angeles Rams, the Broncos fired then-head coach Nathaniel Hackett.

Hackett looked out of his depth almost immediately once the 2022 NFL season began, so few took issue with the decision. The rarity with which coaches are gone before getting a full year spoke to how badly his hiring worked out.

Unfortunately, a coaching change may not make much of a difference for Denver in the short term. The team's biggest problem might be Wilson.

The Broncos have paid—figuratively and literally—for failing to find a true franchise quarterback following John Elway's retirement in 1998, Peyton Manning's four-year tenure notwithstanding.

Denver gave up two first-round picks, two second-picks, a fifth-rounder and three players for Wilson. Ahead of the regular season, he also signed a five-year, $242.6 million extension through 2028, which includes a potential out in 2026.

Rather than lifting the Broncos to a new level, Wilson became a punchline. Even animated characters were piling on in the final weeks of the 2022 season.

The numbers speak for themselves. Wilson threw for 3,524 yards, 16 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. His career-low 37.0 QBR ranked 27th among qualified quarterbacks, per Pro Football Reference.

More concerning for Denver is how Wilson's respect within the locker room appeared to erode throughout the season.

NFL Network's Mike Garafolo reported in November that some Broncos players were "looking at him side-eyed when he was doing all kinds of goofy stuff all offseason into training camp" (16:58 mark).

Tyler Polumbus, a former Broncos offensive lineman, also said in November that Wilson was not only at odds at times with Hackett but also using pre-snap audibles from his time with the Seattle Seahawks.

This past year was the Broncos' worst-case scenario with Wilson. They might be stuck with him for at least two more seasons thanks to his massive contract, too.

Designating Wilson as a post-June 1 cut this offseason would cost $17 million more than keeping him on the roster. Denver would also be saddled with $39 million in dead money for 2023 and $68 million for 2024. Releasing him as a post-1 cut in June 2024 would leave Denver with dead cap hits of $35.4 million in 2024 and $49.6 million in 2025 while being cost-neutral in terms of cap savings.

Payton presumably took this job with the idea of Wilson sticking around.

In theory, the 34-year-old only has up to go from here. The peak version of Wilson likely isn't coming back, but getting to league-average would be an improvement in 2023.

The Broncos otherwise have the bones of a good team in place.

Running back Javonte Williams was on pace for a solid sophomore season before he suffered a torn ACL, and wide receiver Jerry Jeudy made some positive strides in his third year. The defense allowed the seventh-fewest yards in the league and ranked 10th in efficiency, per Football Outsiders.

But Denver's ceiling with Wilson may not be high, especially in a division that includes Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert.

Given all of the factors involved, Payton will likely be afforded some patience. Barring a massive resurgence from Wilson, the Broncos are riding a seven-year playoff drought that could easily extend for another season or two after the coaching change.