How Repeat Super Bowl Champions Became a Thing of NFL's Past
The Kansas City Chiefs are barely the favorite to win Super Bowl LVIII. However, they might have even better odds if not for the fact that no NFL team has won back-to-back championships since the New England Patriots did so back in 2003 and 2004.
It's nearly impossible to repeat these days, which is wild when you consider how dominant teams like the Chiefs, New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts have been at various points this century.
Let's look at the dynamics in play.
The Curse of the Defending Champs: By the Numbers
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- Each of the 18 teams that won the Super Bowl between 2004 and 2021 failed to win the following season.
- During that span, only three champions (Seattle Seahawks in 2013, New England in 2016, Kansas City in 2019) have returned to the Super Bowl the following season.
- During that stretch, six teams (Pittsburgh Steelers in 2005 and 2008, New York Giants in 2011, Baltimore Ravens in 2012, Denver Broncos in 2015, Los Angeles Rams in 2021) have failed to make the playoffs as defending champions.
So lately, you're more likely to miss the playoffs than to get back to the Super Bowl—let alone win it.
The Trend (Sort Of) Came out of Nowhere
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The league by the numbers:
- From 1988 through 2004, four different teams repeated as Super Bowl champions: 1988/1989 San Francisco 49ers, 1992/1993 Dallas Cowboys, 1997/1998 Denver Broncos, 2003/2004 Patriots.
- When you consider that the Green Bay Packers won the NFL title the year before the first Super Bowl, nine of the first 39 Super Bowls (23 percent) were won by the reigning champion.
- Prior to this 18-year stretch, the longest the NFL went without a repeat champion was nine years.
Why Has It Become So Difficult to Repeat?
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Nine teams have successfully defended titles during the Super Bowl era, but only two of those came after the NFL implemented the current model of free agency in 1993 and adopted a salary cap in 1994. Parity has dramatically increased since then, as player movement has become rampant compared to in previous eras.
All but six teams have made the playoffs at least once in the last three years, and 12 different teams have won Super Bowls in the last 15 years (with only New England and Kansas City winning more than once). By comparison, only eight different franchises won the Vince Lombardi Trophy during the 24-year stretch between 1972 and 1995.
In the most pass-happy era in NFL history, the sport has become increasingly focused on the quarterback position. As a result, it's easier for a good team's season to go sideways due to an injury or a slump from one player. There's more of an all-or-nothing element than ever.
Because quarterbacks have become more critical than ever, leaguewide offensive philosophies have shifted. Whereas there used to be an obvious cream of the quarterback crop prior to and even at the turn of the century, there are more franchise quarterbacks now than ever before.
Another factor that has likely contributed to the trend more recently? The rookie salary scale, which has enabled teams that hit it right with stars in the draft to stack up on the cheap before having to pay up.
Put it all together and it's not too surprising that the league has become so unpredictable.
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What About Other Professional American Team Sports?
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MLB, the NBA and the NHL have done their best to foster and maintain competitive balance and the unpredictability that goes along with it. But they've all had unique rides.
- It's been tough to repeat in MLB unless you're the New York Yankees. MLB hasn't had a repeat champion since the Yankees won three in a row between 1998 and 2000. Eleven different teams have won the World Series in the last 17 seasons (compared to 13 different champions in the NFL).
During the NFL's Super Bowl era (1970-now), MLB has had only two threepeats (the aforementioned Yankees and the 1972-1974 Oakland Athletics) and three repeats (the Toronto Blue Jays in 1992/1993, Yankees in 1977/1978 and Cincinnati Reds in 1975/1976). In the last 100 years, the only repeats not involving the Yankees or A's or those aforementioned feats by the Jays and Reds. - The NHL has come a long way from the Original Six days in which it felt like the Montreal Canadiens trampled on everyone every year. The league has had two repeat championships in the last decade (Tampa Bay Lightning in 2020/2021 and Pittsburgh Penguins in 2016/2017), but the Detroit Red Wings' repeat in 1997/1998 is the only other occurrence in the last 30 years. They've had 12 different champions the last 18 years, which puts them right in the mix with the NFL and baseball in terms of title variability.
- The NBA continues to be a different animal. Five teams (the 2000-01 Los Angeles Lakers, 2001-02 Lakers, 2009-10 Lakers, 2012-13 Miami Heat and 2017-18 Golden State Warriors) have successfully defended titles this century. Only 13 NBA teams have won titles in the last 40 years. The NFL, NBA and NHL have had as many winners in the last two decades or so.
The NBA has smaller rosters than the NFL, NHL or MLB, which means it's easier to build superteams. Still, the NBA has progressed from when the Chicago Bulls won six championships in an eight-year span in the 1990s, and even more so from when the Boston Celtics won eight in a row between 1958-59 and 1965-66.
Can the Chiefs Buck the Trend in the NFL?
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The Chiefs are a slight favorite over the Philadelphia Eagles, Buffalo Bills, San Francisco 49ers and Cincinnati Bengals. But the AFC is very competitive, Patrick Mahomes will have a target on his back, and the offense will be adjusting two big changes at offensive tackle and wide receiver.
It won't be easy, but some team is eventually bound to repeat again, and a team led by Mahomes and Andy Reid makes a lot of sense to snap that drought. They have been to three of the last four Super Bowls and have won two of them.
Still, I'd put my money on the field.
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