Biggest Winners and Losers from 2023 NBA Free Agency So Far
Another wild free-agency period is underway in the NBA.
In what has become something of an annual tradition, we've seen tons of player movement since the doors opened on June 30 (and really, since the Finals ended).
Even with a new collective bargaining agreement that would seem to be more restrictive on the player-movement front, teams are wheeling and dealing in both free agency and on the trade market.
And even though we're just a few weeks into the offseason, some early and fairly obvious winners and losers have emerged.
Which teams have set themselves up to take the biggest steps forward (or back) in 2023-24? Scroll below to find out.
Winner: Boston Celtics
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We're going to take a little liberty with the time frame here and extend it back to the end of the Finals. The trades made between then and June 30 are obviously a big part of each team's offseason haul.
And the Boston Celtics made one of the best deals of the summer (so far) when they acquired Kristaps Porziņģis.
Yes, losing longtime Celtic Marcus Smart hurts. The 2021-22 Defensive Player of the Year had spent all nine of his NBA seasons with the franchise and has long been seen as the heartbeat of the organization.
But this is a fairly clear talent upgrade for Boston.
Porziņģis is a year and a half younger, a foot taller and coming off perhaps the best season of his career in 2022-23. He put up career highs in points per game (23.2), assists per game (2.7) and effective field-goal percentage (56.5) while posting a 96th percentile estimated plus-minus.
And he's more than your typical floor-spacing big for a couple reasons. First, and perhaps most importantly for Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, Porziņģis can hit threes from four or five feet beyond the three-point line. That extra room can make a real difference for slashers inside the three-point line, especially if an opposing big has to be on alert 30 feet from the rim.
He's also still an above-average defender and rim protector.
To get all of that and multiple first-round picks as part of this trade was an absolute slam dunk for Boston, especially since it held onto Derrick White and Malcolm Brogdon too.
Loser: Portland Trail Blazers
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Losing the No. 2 player on the Portland Trail Blazers' franchise leaderboard for win shares automatically makes this a losing free-agency period.
And though he hasn't been moved yet, Damian Lillard has finally requested a trade, and we know how these things have almost always gone in recent years.
After years of "will he or won't he," though, the request itself might actually provide a hint of relief (or at least clarity) for the organization.
The front office now knows it's time to move toward the next chapter, which would ideally be one packed with young talent and incoming draft assets.
Unfortunately, Lillard waited till the second day of free agency to provide this clarity to the Blazers, after they'd already committed five years and $160 million to a 29-year-old forward who can score but adds little else to the box score.
Ideally, a Lillard trade would tip off a full-scale rebuild and youth movement revolving around Scoot Henderson, but the Grant deal makes that a little trickier.
If you're looking for the bright side, maybe Grant can perform well for the first few months of 2023-24 and yield some assets in a midseason trade, but this stings right now.
Winner: Phoenix Suns
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The Phoenix Suns severely limited their free-agent prospects when they took on Bradley Beal's massive contract in a late-June trade, but they've racked up several base hits since then.
Armed with little but the veteran minimum to surround Beal, Devin Booker, Kevin Durant and Deandre Ayton, the Suns have added Chimezie Metu, Keita Bates-Diop, Drew Eubanks, Eric Gordon and Yuta Watanabe.
They could all find their way into the Suns' rotation, but Gordon and Watanabe are particularly interesting acquisitions.
The former had multiple suitors but reportedly turned down more money to play in Phoenix. Gordon is a deep floor-spacer like Porziņģis and can play nominal point guard for a team whose wings will actually run the offense.
The latter is a 6'9" forward who hit 51.4 percent of his corner threes in 2022-23 and has plenty of experience fitting into a small role alongside superstars.
The Suns didn't have much flexibility for filling out the rotation around their new Big Four, and they've done about as well as anyone could've expected under the circumstance.
Loser: Denver Nuggets
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Take this one with a grain of salt. Each of the Denver Nuggets' starters from 2022-23's championship team are coming back next season. There will be plenty of opportunity for development for sophomores Christian Braun and Peyton Watson.
But the Nuggets lost Bruce Brown (third on the team in playoff wins over replacement player), Jeff Green (seventh in playoff minutes) and Thomas Bryant (who was part of the trade that cost the team Bones Hyland and a second-round pick in 2023) for nothing.
And in one of the biggest surprises of free agency, the defending champions spent their taxpayer mid-level exception to re-sign Reggie Jackson, who promptly fell out of Denver's rotation shortly after he was signed from the buyout market in February.
After an outlier shooting season with the Los Angeles Clippers in 2020-21, Jackson has been one of the least efficient scorers in basketball over the last two seasons.
Several more intriguing options (like Seth Curry, Dante Exum and Eric Gordon) signed for less with other teams around the league.
And Denver's other free-agency addition, Justin Holiday, was in the seventh percentile in estimated plus-minus.
General manager Calvin Booth may be betting on the aforementioned young players and his incoming draft picks, but the quest to repeat could've used a little help in free agency.
Winner: Fred VanVleet
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You could probably just go with the Houston Rockets here. No one has added more "estimated wins" this offseason, but it's fair to withhold judgment on all three of Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks and Jock Landale.
Brooks is an all-time bad shooter who's generally been surrounded by plenty of offensive firepower with the Memphis Grizzlies. Landale is a 27-year-old with two seasons of NBA experience. And VanVleet is a 6'1" point guard who's generally been surrounded by lengthy, experienced defenders and hasn't had an above-average effective field-goal percentage or true shooting percentage since 2017-18.
But that didn't stop Houston from giving VanVleet a massive, three-year, $130 million max deal.
To this point in his career, VanVleet had made just over $80 million, which was already a heck of a haul for an undrafted player, and now he's more than doubling that total.
(Short-Term) Loser: Washington Wizards
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The Washington Wizards are on the other end of that "estimated wins added" chart as the team that's lost the most.
That sort of makes them "losers" by default.
But it was abundantly clear that a roster led by Beal and Porziņģis (both more appropriately cast as third options now) was never going to contend for a championship. And with little leverage (or none in the case of moving Beal, thanks to his no-trade clause), Washington did a fine job of finally accepting the best option going forward.
Things will probably be rough in the short term. A team led by Jordan Poole, Kyle Kuzma, Tyus Jones, Daniel Gafford, Landry Shamet and several players on rookie contracts is going to lose a lot of games.
But the Wizards finally have a direction, have a chance to accumulate assets over the next couple years and took understandable fliers on Poole and Kuzma this summer.
Winner: Los Angeles Lakers
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The Los Angeles Lakers have drawn a lot of praise for their deals to keep or acquire Rui Hachimura, D'Angelo Russell, Gabe Vincent, Taurean Prince and Austin Reaves.
But none of the above are guaranteed to be big needle-movers, and L.A. has actually lost some 2022-23 estimated wins. The offseason may not be the surefire slam dunk many are making it out to be.
They're still on the winners side of the ledger, though. Retaining Reaves for four years and $56 million, without really being challenged by anyone else for his restricted free agency, is a coup.
Current rules would've allowed some suitor with cap space to offer $101.9 million over four years. And while the Lakers probably would've matched that, it might have at least made them sweat. Matching it would've made team-building in the future a bit trickier too.
Instead, it looks like Reaves will take up under 10 percent of the cap in each season of this contract, which is absurd value for someone who has a good chance to be the team's third-best player.
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