Bold 2026 NBA Offseason Predictions
We interrupt your NBA playoffs consumption with a slate of spicy offseason predictions.
To answer your question: Yes, now is a good time for this.
Basically half of the league has already started its offseason. Every single squad is at least thinking about it. We should be, too.
This exercise will, as always, attempt to strike that balance between minority opinion and entirely plausible. The goal is for at least one or two of these five crystal-ball gazings to prove accurate, so the unhinged part of my brain must be kept in check—but not altogether turned off.
A High-Profile Restricted Free Agent Signs an Offer Sheet that Isn't Matched
1 of 5
Rival teams don't bid on RFAs anymore. Incumbent squads have the right to match whatever offer sheets their guys sign, and tying up cap space or exceptions in players you won't wind up rostering is considered a waste of time.
Paul Reed was the last (non-two-way) player to sign an offer sheet. It came from the Utah Jazz and was matched by the Philadelphia 76ers…back in 2023. Meanwhile, the last time a restricted free agent signed an offer sheet that didn't get matched was in 2018 (Bogdan Bogdanović).
Both droughts will be broken this summer. We are definitely getting at least a high-profile offer sheet. Jalen Duren, Peyton Watson, Tari Eason and Walker Kessler are all interesting enough to captivate the attention of teams that aren't their own.
One of them might even leave. Duren's return to Detroit feels fait accompli. Kessler and the Utah Jazz fall into the same bucket, though the team's long-term cap sheet is finicky enough for the right bid to get them thinking.
Eason and Watson are the names to watch. Both the Houston Rockets and Denver Nuggets will verge on being prohibitively expensive next season if they don't cut costs elsewhere. Maybe they'll do just that. Or perhaps an aggressive offer sheet from a cap-space squad like the Brookly Nets, Chicago Bulls or Los Angeles Lakers scares them off.
Kawhi Leonard Gets Traded to the Sixers, Heat, Knicks, Pistons, Blazers, Suns or Wolves*
2 of 5
Los Angeles Clippers team president Lawrence Frank says the team's long-term goal remains to win with Kawhi Leonard. It's not hard to believe him. The Clippers jettisoned James Harden and Ivica Zubac, but still appear more likely for total recalibration in 2027, when Leonard's contract comes off the books.
At the same time, this organization's direction is already hazy. It becomes indistinguishable if it lands the Indiana Pacers' first-round pick. The Clippers get this selection if it lands outside the top four, which it has a 47.9 percent chance of doing. (Indiana cannot fall lower than sixth, so L.A. would be getting the No. 5 or No. 6 pick.)
Snaring such a high-level prospect could compel the front office to end the Kawhi era. The decision gets easier if the market is frothy enough. And it might be. Leonard is an All-NBA lock after making at least 65 appearances for the second time in three years. His stock isn't getting any higher.
The New York Knicks and Minnesota Timberwolves could view him as a consolation target if it turns out they don't have the assets to sniff around Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Miami Heat will need a backup plan if they don't land the two-time MVP themselves.
If the Philadelphia 76ers put the Clippers' own 2028 and/or 2029 (swap) picks on the table, would L.A. consider taking back Joel Embiid? Or Paul George? The Portland Trail Blazers are a dark horse to swing big after making the playoffs for the first time since 2021, and Kawhi would supercharge an offense that's adding Damian Lillard alongside Deni Avdija next year.
Kawhi could prove to be an ideal target for the Detroit Pistons if their postseason ends in disappointment. He soups up both the primary and secondary offense, and his salary comes off the books (and should get cheaper moving forward) just as they're shelling out big money for all three of Cade Cunningham, Jalen Duren (restricted) and Ausar Thompson.
Phoenix is considered a hidden-gem destination for NBA players. The Suns will also have the ability to trade their 2033 first-round pick. Just saying.
*This list of teams is subject to self-destruct protocols if the NBA's investigation into the Clippers circumventing the salary cap results in Kawhi's contract being voided.
Victor Wembanyama is 1 of JUST 2 Top-10 Picks from the 2023 Draft to Sign an Extension
3 of 5
Victor Wembanyama will put pen to paper on a five-year, $252.7 million max extension, with escalator language that can take it to $303.3 million, as soon as the San Antonio Spurs can offer it. After him, though, the rest of the top-10 picks from the 2023 draft are facing special circumstances that could potentially lead to all of them hitting free agency.
Brandon Miller (No. 2) and Amen Thompson (No. 4) and Ausar Thompson (No. 5) will probably each want max money. Amen has the best chance of getting it. Then again, the Houston Rockets have typically negotiated their rookie extensions. (See: Alperen Şengün and Jabari Smith Jr.) Even fun-max formalities will get harder to find in the Era of Aprons.
The Portland Trail Blazers don't have enough information on—or confidence in—Scoot Henderson (No. 3) to offer him any sort of deal unless it's cheaper than the four-year, $90 million extension Shaedon Sharpe inked last summer. Anthony Black (No. 6) is going to ask for Jalen Suggs money (five years, $150.5 million) at the very least. The tax-bound Orlando Magic will delay saddling themselves with that deal until next offseason to maximize flexibility, including as a means of increasing their outs.
Bilal Coulibaly (No. 7) and Jarace Walker (No. 8) have flashed varying levels of impact. Their complete absence—or, in Walker's case, near-complete absence—of concrete contributions to playoff rotations will complicate extension negotiations. Both the Indiana Pacers and Washington Wizards are also at points of their competitive life cycles in which they'll appreciate the flexibility that comes with retaining smaller cap holds into next summer.
It'll be a genuine surprise if Taylor Hendricks (No. 9) gets an extension from the Memphis Grizzlies after making just 26 appearances for them. Cason Wallace (No.10) is a key piece for the reigning champs, and the Oklahoma City Thunder usually extend those who they plan to keep. But their proximity to the second apron is bound to change parts of their calculus.
A braver person would Sharpie in Wemby as the only top-10 pick to get an extension. I'm going to allow for another deal to get done. I'm also going to assume that deal will belong to Wallace or Amen Thompson. This doesn't mean everyone else will leave or get traded midseason; just that they'll head into restricted free agency.
Giannis Antetokounmpo Gets Traded…to a Team that Won a First-Round Series
4 of 5
Forecasting a Giannis Antetokounmpo trade in general is no longer bold. His exit feels like a matter of when, rather than if, given how public the poor and awkward communication between him and the Milwaukee Bucks became by season's end.
Short of an emotional and transactional miracle, the question shifts to where Giannis is getting traded. Perhaps my crystal ball is on the fritz, because it won't spit out an exact destination. So let's settle on one of the eight teams that make it to the second round of the playoffs (and potentially beyond).
This prediction gets shakier the more you think about it. Which means it's perfect.
Prospective suitors like the Miami Heat and Golden State Warriors are already eliminated. R.I.P. to my "The Charlotte Hornets should trade for Giannis" take, as well.
Those Paolo Banchero-for-Giannis conspiracies will peter out unless the Orlando Magic shock the Detroit Pistons. The Portland Trail Blazers would otherwise be an interesting dark horse thanks to the three Milwaukee picks they control but probably aren't making it past Round 1.
If the first round follows the presumed script, we'll be looking at would-be suitors like the Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, Boston Celtics, Houston Rockets, New York Knicks or Atlanta Hawks, Cleveland Cavaliers or Toronto Raptors, Minnesota Timberwolves or Denver Nuggets and Pistons. That's…not bad?
Denver or Minnesota is out due to a lack of assets. The same goes for the Knicks unless Giannis goes full James Harden. Atlanta has assets, but Antetokounmpo plays its best player's best position. The Cavs will be linked to Giannis if they bow out before the Eastern Conference Finals. Toronto, too.
Oklahoma City isn't doing something that nuclear, but Houston and San Antonio are viable candidates. Detroit hitting the Giannis button if it pays Duren is weird; not impossible.
LeBron James will Join the Warriors or Re-Sign with the Lakers
5 of 5
League sources told The Athletic's Dan Woike and Sam Amick that the Golden State Warriors' desire to scoop up LeBron James is "serious," while others lent credence to his interest in teaming up with Steph. The report also suggests that, after appearing headed for a divorce, LeBron and the Lakers are on better terms.
Sign yours truly up for either of these outcomes. Really, anything but the Cleveland Cavaliers works for me. Heading back home would be a clear sign LeBron is hanging it up. Especially when, as of now, the Cavs could only offer him a minimum contract.
With all due respect, anyone who's remotely emotionally ready for LeBron to retire is a sociopath. We should all be rooting for him to consider playing through at least Year 25, which means sticking around until 2027-28.
Signing with the Warriors (who could have the non-taxpayer mid-level) or re-up with the Lakers (who can pay him more than anyone) would be the surest indicator yet he's determined to hit that quarter-century mark. Yeah, he might deny it. Sources divulged to Woike and Amick that LeBron himself has said he doesn't need the pomp and circumstance of a farewell tour.
I'm calling B.S. Not because I think LeBron's a narcissist. (He deserves a farewell tour.) Or because the flickering embers of my youth will burn out once he walks away. I just want to continue watching him hoop and flipping off Father Time a bit longer. And for that to happen, he in all likelihood needs to stay put or check "Join forces with The Splash God" off his bucket list. The Cleveland reunion can—nay, it will—wait a beat.
Dan Favale is a National NBA Writer for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Bluesky (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.
.jpg?w=600 "New NBA Mock Draft 📝")