Are the Broncos the NFL's Best Bet to Leap from Pretender to Contender?
After the Denver Broncos acquired Russell Wilson from the Seattle Seahawks, they moved into the top five in odds to win Super Bowl LVII, but they fell flat, going 5-12.
With new head coach Sean Payton, is Denver a viable pick to surge up the standings from pretender to playoff contender?
Before we answer that question and provide alternative teams to consider, let's examine what qualifies as an NFL pretender.
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As noted, the Broncos came into the 2022 campaign with Super Bowl hype (based on betting odds), though a few other teams picked up playoff buzz but came up short down the stretch last year. Along with Denver, we also included a few of those clubs.
Starting with the Broncos, we've listed five teams that have the best chance to make the 2023 playoffs after an overhyped season or narrowly missing the 2022 postseason.
Denver Broncos
Aside from the Las Vegas Raiders, the Broncos will match up against playoff-caliber teams in the AFC West. The Kansas City Chiefs won Super Bowl LVII, and the Los Angeles Chargers clinched a playoff spot with a 10-7 record in 2022.
That being said, Denver has a legitimate playoff vibe this offseason.
As a Super Bowl-winning head coach who's won 63 percent of his games in 15 years, Payton has earned the benefit of the doubt. During his time in New Orleans, he worked with an undersized mobile quarterback, Drew Brees, who aged well into his 40s.
Payton has the blueprint to optimize Wilson's skill set. The 34-year-old has shed weight and looks svelte ahead of training camp, which may be an indication that he'll move a lot more in and out of the pocket. We saw that tendency in his Pro Bowl years with the Seahawks.
Moreover, running back Javonte Williams and wide receiver Tim Patrick are expected to return from torn ACLs.
Lastly, Vance Joseph made his return to Denver as a defensive coordinator, and he'll likely inject blitz-heavy concepts to spark a pass rush that ranked 26th in pressure rate for the 2022 campaign.
The Broncos will play a fourth-place team schedule with a head coach and quarterback who both won titles with previous teams, which separates them from other potential contenders.
New York Jets
If you have lingering doubts about the Payton-Wilson tandem in Denver, consider the New York Jets as the best bet to make the leap from pretender to contender.
Like the Broncos last year, they made the biggest acquisition of the offseason, bringing in Super Bowl-winning quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
Though you may be a bit skeptical about New York's road to the playoffs after watching Wilson struggle with his second team, Rodgers landed in a different situation.
Unlike Wilson in 2022, the 39-year-old will work with a head coach who's been in place for two years, and he'll throw passes to a starting wide receiver (Allen Lazard) from his previous team.
Under Robert Saleh, Gang Green went from 4-13 to 7-10 and generated playoff buzz with a 7-4 record going into December last year. Unfortunately for the Jets, they didn't have a starting-caliber quarterback. Zach Wilson looks like a bust, and Mike White played with fractured ribs. The club had to trot out Joe Flacco to close the term.
New York addressed its biggest weakness with the arrival of Rodgers, who's won league MVP in two of the last three years. He joins a team with the 2022 Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year in wideout Garrett Wilson and cornerback Sauce Gardner, respectively.
With running back Breece Hall set to return, New York has a quality blend of young and seasoned talent. It just needs to work out a new deal with All-Pro defensive tackle Quinnen Williams to keep the core of its 2022 fourth-ranked scoring defense intact.
Despite a competitive AFC East division with two playoff teams from the previous year, Rodgers can lead the Jets to the postseason.
New Orleans Saints
The New Orleans Saints didn't enter the 2022 campaign with a lot of hype, but they generated some buzz after signing Tyrann Mathieu and Jarvis Landry, two players from Louisiana.
In an NFC South division with every team under .500 last year, the Saints had a chance to host a division playoff game, but they turned their season around a little too late, winning in three of the last four weeks to finish 7-10.
As of right now, the Saints look like front-runners to win the NFC South.
If not for the Jets' blockbuster trade for Rodgers, the Saints would have had the most notable quarterback acquisition this offseason: Derek Carr.
Carr's 2022 Pro Bowl year seems hollow after his struggles under Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels led him to the bench, but he's a significant upgrade over the Saints' previous quarterback combination of Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton.
In recent years, they have served as fill-in starters or primary backups. With the exception of Weeks 17 and 18 last year, Carr has started in every game of his career.
The 32-year-old is also a more efficient quarterback with a lower career interception rate than Winston and Dalton, though he's shown the ability to take shots downfield as well.
Similar to the Jets, the Saints needed an upgrade at the most important position, and they addressed the issue with a high-profile addition. Carr is clearly the best quarterback in the NFC South with Baker Mayfield, Desmond Ridder and rookie Bryce Young set to lead their respective offenses.
Besides its improved offensive outlook, New Orleans has a stingy defensive unit that finished within the top 10 in points and yards allowed last year.
Among the clubs listed, the Saints have the easiest path to a division title.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers went through growing pains with quarterback Kenny Pickett in the first year of the post-Ben Roethlisberger era.
In Week 5 last season, Pickett took over the lead role from Mitch Trubisky for a 1-3 Steelers squad and went 7-5 as a starter. Clearly, the team built momentum with Pickett under center, winning seven out of nine games following its Week 9 bye. At 9-8, it barely missed the playoffs in a conference filled with high-level quarterbacks.
The Steelers will bank on in-house roster development to make a playoff push. They didn't make changes at leadership positions within the coaching staff or on the roster, but second-year general manager Omar Khan made moves in free agency and the draft to elevate a decent roster and Pickett.
Pittsburgh signed battle-tested veterans in Patrick Peterson, Damontae Kazee, Keanu Neal and Chandon Sullivan to shore up its pass defense, which ranked 19th in yards allowed and tied for the second-most touchdowns allowed in 2022.
With the addition of guard Isaac Seumalo, rookie tackle Broderick Jones, wide receiver Allen Robinson II and first-year tight end Darnell Washington, Pickett should have stronger pass protection and more playmakers in the aerial attack. Jones, Seumalo and Washington can also open up running lanes for Najee Harris.
The Steelers seem set up to build on a strong finish to the 2022 campaign. As the biggest potential threat to the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC North, they have an edge in continuity over the Baltimore Ravens, who will unveil a new offense under Todd Monken, and the Cleveland Browns, who hired Jim Schwartz to improve an underachieving defense.
Detroit Lions
The Detroit Lions pulled on the heartstrings of NFL fans who wanted to see the underdog succeed in the 2022 season finale.
Detroit hasn't clinched a postseason berth since 2016, but it made a push in the second half of the previous season, going 7-2 after a 2-6 start. Heading into Week 18, the Lions needed a win over the Green Bay Packers and a Seahawks loss to claim the seventh seed. They handled their business with a victory over the Packers, but the Seahawks beat the Los Angeles Rams earlier that day.
If the Lions have a quicker start to the 2023 campaign, they may be able to control their playoff destiny as true contenders in the NFC.
Last year, quarterback Jared Goff clicked with offensive coordinator Ben Johnson. He earned his third Pro Bowl nod—first since 2018—and led the league's eighth-ranked passing offense with 4,438 yards, 29 touchdowns and seven interceptions.
Goff could see another bump in his passing numbers with the addition of a couple of playmaking rookies, tight end Sam LaPorta and dual-threat running back Jahmyr Gibbs. Once wideout Jameson Williams returns from a six-game suspension for a gambling violation, the Lions offense has top-five scoring potential.
Detroit overhauled its bottom-tier defense, too. The front office signed cornerback Emmanuel Moseley, safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson, cornerback Cameron Sutton and then drafted linebacker Jack Campbell and safety Brian Branch in the first and second rounds, respectively.
Based on the Lions' expected growth with those additions, they could win 10-plus games as they battle the Minnesota Vikings for the NFC North crown.
Maurice Moton covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @MoeMoton.
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