Best 2023 NFL Futures Bets To Make Before Training Camps Arrive
With organized team activities and minicamps officially complete, we're looking ahead to training camp season. And as a result, that gives us an opportunity to step back and break down some of the NFL futures bets for 2023 that could be worth jumping on now.
Why? Well, partly because it's something fun to do (responsibly) during this annual lull, but also because in some cases there are hints that odds trajectories could change on some bets by the time camps and the preseason are rolling.
Here are a handful we have in mind.
*All odds courtesy of DraftKings.
Bryce Young Over 22.5 Touchdown Passes
1 of 5
A few reasons why I think a 22.5 over/under on touchdown passes is too low for Carolina Panthers rookie quarterback Bryce Young:
1. The Panthers mortgaged their future to trade up in the draft for the 21-year-old, so you know they're going to do everything in their power to ensure the No. 1 overall pick has plenty of opportunities to shine throughout the 2023 season.
2. There are already signs they're doing exactly that. "Kudos to the Carolina Panthers for not fooling around with rookie quarterback Bryce Young," Jonathan Jones of CBS Sports wrote on June 16. "Yes, everyone has to earn their spot. But this league is too hard and the learning curve is too steep to play games with the signal-caller you traded up to No. 1 for hoping to resurrect your franchise. Get him the No. 1 reps early and often. 'Throw him in the fire!' is how one source put it to me recently. Frank Reich's Panthers are going the opposite route of Urban Meyer and his decision to split reps between Trevor Lawrence and Gardner Minshew."
3. According to ESPN's Dan Graziano, Young "has been everything [the team] thought he was and more since he got in the building."
4. The Alabama product has got Frank Reich as well as a deep and experienced receiving corps, and Miles Sanders can play a significant role in the passing game as well.
5. The Panthers still aren't a good team overall. They'll trail a lot, and they'll pass a lot as a result.
Thirteen quarterbacks threw 23 or more touchdown passes last season. If Young can stay healthy, he should easily hit that mark in 2023.
Aaron Rodgers Under 3,950.5 Passing Yards
2 of 5
A few reasons why I think a 3,950.5 over/under on touchdown passes is high for New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers:
1. Rodgers threw the sixth-highest number of passes in his career in 2022, but he fell short of the 3,700-yard mark for the Green Bay Packers.
2. On paper, the Jets are expected to be more competitive than the Packers were last year, which could result in less frequent passing from the veteran because of a lack of large deficits.
3. The 39-year-old's rate-based numbers have plummeted in back-to-back seasons and there could be growing pains in his age-40 season.
4. It's far from guaranteed he'll stay healthy all year. Have we mentioned he's 39? Besides, he's already dealing with a calf injury.
Only three quarterbacks older than 28 hit that 3,951-yard mark in 2022. I just see too much getting in Rodgers' way in 2023.
Tua Tagovailoa +2000 to Win MVP
3 of 5
The concern here might be that Tua Tagovailoa's injury history could prevent him from putting it all together again in 2023. But that's why these are intriguing odds to get in on right now.
They'll likely come down if the 25-year-old can get through a few weeks of camp and preseason action, and there was a strong sign the Miami Dolphins felt encouraged when they exercised his fifth-year option for 2024 earlier this offseason.
Let's not forget the Alabama product was the league's highest-rated qualified passer in 2022. He also ranked third in QBR while destroying all of his peers with an 8.9 yards-per-attempt average.
If Tagovailoa can play a full season and build on that in 2023, we'll laugh at the fact that eight other quarterbacks had better MVP odds on June 21.
Denver Broncos +190 to Make the Playoffs
4 of 5
Do it now, before we start to get hints that 2022 was a fluke based on the circumstances for Russell Wilson, or that the quarterback and new Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton have a chance to rock the league in 2023.
That's no guarantee, of course, but +190 to make the playoffs in a seven-team field? It's hard to resist betting on Wilson and Payton—both of whom are established winners—with those odds.
The Broncos were a mess last year, but this team could have an entirely different feel. And it's still worth noting that the 2022 squad managed to post a top-10 DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) at Football Outsiders.
Cleveland Browns +4000 to Win Super Bowl LVIII
5 of 5
Again, I'm not saying I think the Cleveland Browns will win the Super Bowl. But I am saying that when you take into account the talent this team has, as well as the fact that this will be Deshaun Watson's first full campaign with them, it's silly that 15 other teams possess better Super Bowl odds than the Browns.
Watson is the third-highest rated qualified passer in league history. Oh, and Cleveland also has a rock-solid offensive line as well as those dudes named Nick Chubb and Myles Garrett. Throw in the fact that they got better on paper at receiver and elsewhere on defense this offseason, and it's hard to find too many flaws.
So, if you're going to make a "lottery ticket" pick on the futures board, this might be the one. Or, alternatively, you could take a more conservative swing at them to win the AFC North at +425 or make the playoffs at +120.
Gambling problem? Call (877-8-HOPENY) or text HOPENY (467369).
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL/IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 888-789-7777/visiting ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-877-770-STOP (7867) (LA), visiting OPGR.org (OR), or calling/texting TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) or 1-888-532-3500 (VA).
Odds and lines subject to change. 21+ (18+ NH/WY). AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/LA/MI/NH/NJ/NY/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.
.jpg?w=480 "Vikings Cowboys Football")
.jpg?w=600 "Live Grades for SmackDown 🔡")
.jpg?w=600 "Cowboys Trade for 49ers LB")
.jpg?w=600 "Bears OL Wins Ketchup for Life 😳")